ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Stealth Killer
At the Pump...
For edition of March 24, 2006
Crude oil prices reportedly “worried” investors yesterday, perhaps because there was nothing more menacing in the news. But look at the chart below. It doesn’t take a technician to see that the current uptrend in prices is yet another gratuitous stab into the mid $60s, as likely to be followed by a $4 or $5 decline as high tide is by low. Face it, if Katrina couldn’t push spot quotes up to $100 a barrel, what would?** But prices at the pump are another matter. I’ve never put $50 of gas into a car’s tank, but I came pretty close yesterday and would have achieved that dubious milestone if there hadn’t been a couple of gallons left in the tank. I hadn’t filled it in quite a while and was therefore unaware that premium had crept back up to $2.65 a gallon hereabouts. Ordinarily, the local newspapers keep this story in our faces, but I guess we’ve all been conditioned by now to simply shrug off anything less than $3 a gallon. But do the editors know that seasonal factors are actually restraining gasoline prices at the moment and that a 30% increase between now and the beginning of summer would not be the least bit unusual? If so, they’ve kept pretty quiet about it.
** Yes, I know: a sidewinder missile taking out a supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal. But so far, most fortunately, the world’s luck has held out.
