While I cannot give you an ironclad guarantee we’ll see a major stock-market top within the next few days, the two charts below explain why we shouldn’t be too eager to bet against one. The first comes from Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, and it shows the S&P 500 bumping up against the ceiling of a channel that has taken more than seven years to form. The channel is defined by three major highs and lows, meaning the downtrend being measured is not a mere figment of some bearish technician’s imagination.    

(Click on chart to enlarge)

The second chart (below) is my own, and it shows two important hidden-pivot resistance points for the Dow Industrial Average that lie just above yesterday’s high. I mentioned the 11451 target here earlier as a place where the long bull cycle begun in October of 2002 could end. The second is an alternative top that comes from a bullish pattern of greater magnitude. The pivots together define a formidable resistance range, and although it’s quite possible the Dow will get past them eventually, I seriously doubt that it will happen on the first try. This therefore looks like a potentially low-risk place to attempt shorting the market, and so we shall. Detailed instructions are given in the “Current Touts” section of Rick’s Picks.