ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Turning Point
For Newmont?
For edition of September 15, 2006
Here’s some trading-floor wisdom that could suit us well as we continue to fish for a bottom in gold: When attempting to catch a falling piano, one should always wait until it has bounced three times. Or so the saying goes. Yesterday, however, we threw caution to the wind, opening our arms and casting our eyes skyward as that Steinway of the bullion sector, Newmont Mining, came a-plummeting once again. Shares of the world’s largest gold producer have fallen nearly 20 percent in a little more than a week, but there was reason to believe that any significant, further decline yesterday would bring it to a Hidden Pivot support with the potential to turn the tide.
So far, we haven’t been proven wrong. The target I’d flagged at 43.75 caught the nadir of yesterday’s $2.25 swoon within a nickel, and by day’s end the stock had rebounded sufficiently to leave us with a small profit in the Oct 45 calls we’d bought to leverage this potentially important low. Or was it? It’s too early to say, since the subsequent rally had only 30 minutes to feel its oats before NYSE trading ended for the day. We have our suspicions that Newmont will see still lower prices, since our worst-case target for Comex December Gold is 513.30, well beneath yesterday’s dismal lows at $581. But unless Newmont opens on a gap lower this morning, we will have tested this theory without much pain or risk.
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What Do I Need to Know?
Registration forms for the October 28-29 Hidden Pivot seminar at the Fairmont Waterfront in Vancouver went out yesterday to those who earlier had said they plan to attend. Click here to receive the form if you were not on the list. If you are wavering, here is some possibly useful information that was elicited by the following query:
“I received the email with the registration form this weekend. I am seriously considering attending the weekend in San Fran and would like to ask a few questions which should help me make my decision easier.
“I have studied technical analysis and traded for a short while using various parameters to determine which stocks to trade and when. I have also studied options trading and traded options for a short while. My account was never funded at a high enough level to really do this full time and I then found an opportunity to work in the giant online gaming industry.
“That brings us back to this:
“What level of knowledge should I possess to be able to understand and learn the things you will be teaching? “
There are no prerequisites. The method I teach is unlike any other, and the concepts are more visual than mathematical. It is fundamentally simple, since price action is the only variable considered.
“Do you provide enough information and training that I can come back home and immediately begin applying the concepts and techniques in my direct access account?”
Yes, you will come home from the seminar with enough knowledge to try some easy trades. However, before students put more than mere pocket change on the line, I strongly urge them to solidify their learning, and to build their confidence, by visiting the free chat room that has been set up mainly for their benefit.
Just four months after the seminar, some of my grads are nearly as good as I am at identifying Hidden Pivot swing points. My goal is nothing less than to make every student as proficient at forecasting as top pros who do it for a living. With just a couple of months of free mentoring, I can promise you that you will never need to ask some “expert” what he thinks about this stock or that, or about “the market”.
“Will I need other subscriptions and paid access to various other services to put this knowledge to use? (I will gladly subscribe to your newsletter bulletin, but some programs require other subscriptions after they have collected the seminar fees with no mention of this before the conference. I do not mind additional monthly charges but they should make sense and not be there for the primary sake of creating an ongoing revenue stream without any real benefit to the subscriber!)”
Though not required, a Rick’s Picks subscription will give you access to the chat room; it should prove sufficiently useful to pay for itself. I encourage you to subscribe and warrant that you will find it well worth the price.
“What is the recommended minimum amount to have in my direct access account to trade using your Hidden Pivot method?”
Trading relatively cheap options in lots of four, $5,000 should be more than enough. I currently keep about $25,000 in my direct access account, since this allows me to hedge trades with stock, and to sell puts and calls naked-short. However, most of the trades I recommend, and most of the ones that I do myself, are relatively simple and involve buying stock, puts or calls, not naked-shorting.
“Are there any books that you recommend reading before attending the seminar?”
The 110-page classroom manual you will receive is complete in itself and adequate for self-teaching. For a good option primer, try Options Demystified by my friend Tom McCafferty.
“Anything else you would like to mention about the material covered during the weekend?”
You will not find an easier forecasting system that works as well as this one.
“Sorry for the long email – I am very serious about making a decision to fly down to San Fran so your thoughts are greatly appreciated.”
No trouble at all. I hope the information I’ve provided is helpful to you.
