ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Volatility Our
No. 1 Export
For edition of May 11, 2006
Glance at the chart below and you might think it was a hot new IPO on the Dubai stock exchange, or perhaps a coffee drinker’s EKG after he’s downed a triple espresso. But both guesses would be wrong, for it is in fact a bar chart of yesterday’s price action in the 30-Year T-Bond future. Some old timers may remember the T-Bond contract as one of the deepest and most liquid securities in the world. But that was before U.S. Treasury debt became mere side-action for what has grown into a $210 trillion global derivatives market. For comparison, consider that in 2005 the world produced real goods and services valued at just 25 percent of that amount, or $54 trillion. Clearly, making money the old-fashioned way has gone out of style.

If the chart were an EKG, a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation would send the patient to the hospital pronto. But in the ethereal world of debt and derivatives, it is just a gratuitous blip signifying nothing more than that investors were agitated yesterday when the Fed announced it would raise administered rates to 5%. A moment’s reflection tells us that a little atrial fibrillation in the T-bond market is not such a bad thing, considering that the primary source of the world’s economic growth is now, indisputably, volatility.
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