ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Apple Mocks
Market Theory
For edition of July 26, 2007
When we warned recently that Apple shares might fall to as low as $134 before rallying to a potentially important high near $153, we never imagined the stock would hit both of those numbers in a single day. But it very nearly did yesterday, when stellar earnings drove bears into a short-covering panic in after-hours trading. The stock had spent most of the day struggling to recoup a nearly $9 loss on Tuesday, when it plunged, along with a very weak market, to a low of 134.15. Before the earnings news was released after the close, bulls had been unable to push quotes much higher than $138 on the rebound. But when word hit the tape that the electronics firm’s profits had surged 73% on sensational Mac and iPod sales, DaBoyz let crazed short-covering do its magic. AAPL gyrated wildly in the minutes that followed, feinting first to 143.70, then plunging to 129.00. That was the day’s low as well as the starting point of an even more spectacular rally. An hour later AAPL had touched a high of 151.98 – an 18 percent move in just under 60 minutes..

So much for the patently absurd notion that the stock market prices shares efficiently. This time, its inefficiency seemed almost comical, given that no sentient adult – other than a Wall Street analyst, perhaps -- could have been unaware of the red-hot pace of Apple’s hardware sales in the last few months. For our part, we see no contradiction in the stock’s hitting our worst-case and best-case targets in the space of just a few short hours. Oh, and by the way: The 153.41 upside projection remains valid, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see AAPL make an important top there. It wouldn’t be the first time a stock became a ripe sale on great news.