Here’s a front-page headline from the New York Times that gave us a chuckle the other day:  “Few Heard Ticking Credit Time Bomb.”  Few who are not deaf, dumb and blind, perhaps.  However, for the millions of sentient humans who live outside the warp in which the Times evidently is fabricated each day, the ticking of the credit time bomb was about as hard to detect as a giant asteroid bearing down on Cleveland. Seems no one at the Gray Lady thought to Google the words “credit crisis” in recent years, since that would have turned up millions of leads that some enterprising reporter could have checked out.

Both the Times and The Wall Street Journal  have been doing some heavy catching up recently in the wake of revelations concerning the true condition of the U.S. real estate market. It took the bankruptcies of some big mortgage lenders, as well as subprime leverageur Bear Stearns’ narrow scrape with death, to call attention to potentially disastrous problems that the financial-newsletter world has been heralding for years.

Deflation Is Next

The Times, the Journal, and other status quo purveyors of news must surely regard the mortgage crisis as something to be resolved in due time, presumably by an inevitable upswing in home prices and a little help from the central bank. But such thinking only confirms that they are as clueless now as they were when the real estate crisis reached critical mass nearly two years ago. And, we are certain, they will be equally clueless when the expected upswing in home prices fails to materialize and deflation tightens its death-grip on the U.S. and global economies.

By then, the praise and respect the news media have mindlessly heaped on former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will be under reconsideration. For the record, let us say that he has already been tried and convicted by the vast newsletter world as the main instigator of a credit blowout that could only have ended as this one is about to:  in a global bust. Three generations after the start of the Great Depression, the eggheads, pundits and wonks are still looking for a culprit.  Was it the Smoot-Hawley tariff?  Too-tight credit after the market crashed?  The next time around, when the saga of the Second Great Depression is told, they need look no further than a Federal Reserve that succeeded in turning the concept of “free lunch” into America’s one true mainstream religion.  

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Online Seminar: Last Call

Six students are on board so far for the August 25-26 online Hidden Pivot Seminar, so if small class-size appeals to you, this will be an ideal session to attend.  For the convenience in particular of participants from the U.K., the class will begin on both days at 4 p.m. London time (11 a.m. EDT), allowing students a leisurely Saturday and Sunday, as well as dinner on Saturday night at a fashionable hour. 

If you've ever wanted to forecast stock and commodity prices as accurately as many gurus who do it for a living. this may be the best opportunity you will have to pursue that goal. To reserve a seat, simply click here, then on the “Upcoming” tab.  Detailed information about the course itself and the Hidden Pivot Method can be obtained by clicking here. All who do so will also receive a free Hidden Pivot calculator.

Free to All Graduates

Incidentally, all seminar grads now have free access at all hours of the day to a recorded version of the seminar, as well as to the Q&A forums held in conjunction with each class. In addition, I am in the process of creating an advanced tutorial built around some especially difficult charts. It will be available to seminar grads for a nominal fee.