ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Gold Just Shy
Of Juicy Low
For edition of May 11, 2007
For those of you who still awaken each morning with somehow undiminished enthusiasm for “buying the dips” in gold, I’ve included my rock-bottom price forecast in Friday’s Touts. Yesterday, I did some abortive bottom-fishing myself in the June Comex, nibbling at Hidden Pivots that lay, respectively, at 672.10 and 667.80. By day’s end, however, I’d lost my enthusiasm altogether, if not to say my trading mojo, even though the best opportunity of the week may lie just ahead, a hair beneath Thursday’s lows. As of 5 p.m. ET, the so-far low is 665.90 --close enough to my bear-cycle target to imply that the ideal buying opportunity may already be past. But if the futures should come down to my exact number either Thursday night or Friday morning, you can use it to bottom-fish with an extremely tight stop-loss. Why so tight? Simply because the target is so clear on the 30-minute chart that if it is breached by more than, say, 0.70 points, I’d infer that lower prices – perhaps $10-$15 lower – are coming.

In any event, we’ll continue to play footsies with this correction in various and sundry ways, much as we did yesterday in Yamana Gold (AUY). The stock took a tradable bounce from within a single penny of a predicted low (13.91), so some of you could conceivably have made a few bucks on the stock as it was falling. Please note, however, that the subsequent breach of a lower pivot at 13.71 hints of another serious leg down. If so, I’ve provided a Hidden Pivot target that will offer a great place to bottom-fish aggressively if you have been looking to build a core position in the stock. Meanwhile, I should mention, as I did earlier in the chat room, that I’ve covered the last of the E-Mini contracts that were shorted from 1518.75 on Wednesday, a single tick from the high. The last of them were covered near 1500.75, the midpoint of the uptrend that produced the 1519.00 target.