ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Jim Rogers Joins
Home-Bust Crazies
For edition of March 20, 2007
A round of applause for globetrotting guru Jim Rogers, who has forsaken the nurturing bosom of respectability to join the wild-eyed crazies in the housing-bust camp. "Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas;” he recently told Reuters. “There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history."

Rogers evidently is putting his money where his mouth is, having listed his $15 million mansion on the Upper West Side for sale. So steeply have New York real estate prices risen in the last couple of years that we were somewhat surprised to learn that one could still buy a storied mansion in that neighborhood for a paltry $15 million. Across the park, even pieds-a-terre are fetching upwards of $20 million.
Rogers also said he has sold out of emerging markets except for China, notwithstanding the fact that he expects markets there to collapse by 30-40 percent. “China is one of the few countries in the world where I’m willing to sit out a 30-40 percent decline.” Say this for the guy, he sounds like a risk-taker who knows what he’s doing. But will America's homeowners be able to weather a similar decline in property values with Rogers' aplomb?