Obligatory year-end mark-ups are bound to push stocks still higher into New Year’s Eve, but don’t expect the Dow to hit new record highs any time soon. That would require a 650-point thrust from these levels, and although a rally of that magnitude would require a trajectory less steep than the short-squeeze that added 700 points to the Industrial Average in the days immediately before and after Thanksgiving, buyers would face far more daunting challenges of supply this time around.

Look at the graph above and you can see why. The Thanksgiving rally pushed past just a single prior peak, but a thrust now of equal magnitude would have to get past three “priors” to achieve a new all-time high. Although we’re not going to rule that out, if it happens, odds favor a series of thrusts none of which exceeds more than a single prior peak. A more powerful push – i.e., one that surpasses two or more “priors” without a pause of more than a single day – seems implausible, since it would imply that we are in a true bull market with upside potential far above 2007’s highs.

In any event, the key to determining whether the long-term bull market is still intact lies in how easily the rallies puncture prior peaks on the hourly and daily charts. We’ll be tracking this indicator closely in the weeks ahead, so stay tuned to the Touts section of Rick’s Picks if you’d rather not guess about such things.

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“While perusing some of your posts chronologically from months back, I'm truly struck by the remarkable prescience of many of your fearless calls. The results are uncannily accurate. Thanks again for this opportunity to profit from your usually directionally correct analyses. The subscription is worth every penny - and then some.”

-- Colin L. MacVeagh, a subscriber

Aloha Rick.  I just want to thank you personally for all of your posts in Comex Gold and Silver.  I have traded gold/silver futures for a decade and there is NO ONE who has identified prices as accurately as you do. FACT:  Your New Year's Eve call of a high at 643.10 call was dead-on (even if floor traders ran it up a few days later to flush the momentum traders.) But your subsequent forecast of a pullback low at 603.00 was mind boggling! I Sold my longs at 643.10 and covered my shorts at  603.00 -- the exact bottom.

   -- Mark Johnson, Hawaiian subscriber

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Want to learn exactly how I do it? Then click here for details concerning next month’s online Hidden Pivot Seminar on January 5-6 (Saturday/Sunday morning). Sign up now while there are still some seats left. The goal of this course is nothing less than to teach traders and investors of all levels of experience how to forecast stocks and commodities at least as accurately and confidently as those who do it successfully for a living.

With just a cursory understanding of the material taught in the course and a little bit of follow-up, you will never again have to ask an “expert” what he thinks about a particular stock or “the market.” That’s because you will be better equipped yourself to answer the question simply by looking at a few charts.

The course is not about technical analysis in the conventional sense, with its tired and overly scrutinized trendlines, its familiar oscillators, channels, volume indicators, and all the rest, Rather, it is a way of looking at charts with a fresh eye – to see charts as “art,” with emphasis on visual elements of harmony, symmetry, and, indeed, beauty. My annotated charts do not look even remotely like those of other technicians, and that is why the “buy” and “sell” signals that come from them rarely coincide with those favored and used by the herd.

Never Again Rely on ‘Experts’

The online class will be a particularly good opportunity for those who were unable to attend my classes last year in New York, Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Denver. If you’ve visited the Rick’s Picks chat room and marveled at the forecasting skill of seminar grads, this course is designed to quickly bring you up to their level. While I cannot guarantee that the course will turn you into a fabulously rich trader,  I can promise, as stated above, that with a little diligence and practice, your ability to precisely predict price reversals in stocks, indexes, options and commodities will be at least as good as anyone whose forecasts you have ever paid for.

Although the on-site course was offered for as much as $2,000, I am offering it online for $960, since many of the expenses incurred in holding “live” seminars – including hotel and travel costs, and the rental of conference facilities -- are not a factor. If you are seriously interested in attending, click here for more information, or go directly to the registration page by clicking here, then clicking the “UPCOMING” tab.