October 27th, 2007 Price: Subscribe »

ARCHIVED COMMENTARY

The Nasdaq index has been slithering sideways for nearly two weeks, so you might as well flip a coin if you’re keen on betting which way stocks are finally going to break, up or down. And forget about forming any strong opinions before the close, since that’s unlikely to produce better results than a coin-toss.

 

We were forming a bearish opinion ourselves as Thursday’s session drew to a close. Fortunately, a telephone distraction prevented our buying a bunch of QQQQ puts just before the bell. They’d have been goners moments later, when Microsoft announced a 23% jump in profits, supposedly on strong demand for Windows and Office software.

 

 

The news caused the QQQQs, of which Microsoft is a key component, to leap exuberantly in after-hours trading, recouping in mere seconds all of the 67 cents they’d lost during the regular session. Had we bought the puts, they’d have shed 20% of their value before the trade was even confirmed -- just like a new car does when one drives it off the lot. That’s what so challenging and stressful about trading: All too often, one gets to experience heart-stopping buyer’s remorse mere seconds after a purchase or short sale.

 

Vista or Rat Poison: Choose!

 

Concerning Microsoft’s apparent earning’s triumph, there was some skepticism in the Rick’s Picks chat room about its veracity.  That the jump in revenues was attributed in part to hot sales of the Vista operating system seems curious, given that Vista is the most reviled and resisted mediocrity the company has ever shoved down PC users’ throats.

 

 

We should also mention that MSFT’s fabulously successful Halo3 video game seems to be taking a heavy toll on the Xbox hardware. My son had to ship his unit back to the company for a warranty replacement after it quit in the heat of Halo-mania. The UPS guy who came to pick it up knew exactly what it was, since similar pick-ups in the neighborhood had been keeping him busy for weeks.

 

Putting the facts aside, as we often must to succeed as traders, a chat room denizen gets the day’s final word on Microsoft: “They got their numbers, and that’s all the Street wanted.”  Sure enough.

 

 

***

 

Out-Forecast Your Guru!

 

 

Take a look at the chart below.  See anything that might have led you to predict that December Crude would make a very tradable top at 87.97?   Would you like to learn how to forecast stocks and commodities as accurately yourself?  Are you tired of having some guru tell you what to do?  If so, then read on.  

 

Now, Rick’s Picks has been predicting $100-a-barrel oil for quite a while. Even so, and bullish as we are on crude, we don’t always trade it from the long side.  Consider the following short recommendation that went out to subscribers the other night. It is based on Hidden Pivot analysis:  “[My rally target for December Crude]  is 87.97, and you can short there with a 14-cent stop-loss… Since the correction could be shallow and brief, don't be too ambitious about profit-taking if the opportunity to do so should arise.”

 

Now take a look at the chart again and see how things played out:

 

 

A lucky coincidence?  Hardly. Hidden Pivot targets get hit so precisely so much of the time that it couldn’t possibly be due to blind luck.  Moreover, visit the Rick’s Picks chat room and you'll discover that the basics of the Hidden Pivot Method can be learned by anyone in just a few hours. But don’t take my word for it.  Ask some of the regulars who have taken the Hidden Pivot seminar.  They will tell you not only that it's possible for “amateurs” to forecast stocks and commodities with astounding accuracy, but that it's great fun!   And why wouldn't it be, if it freed you from ever having to ask an "expert" what he thinks about a certain stock, or about "the market".  Who cares what he thinks when you can learn how to do it yourself – to do it better, even, than quite a few gurus who do it for a living.

 

If you’ve heard about this course but could not attend earlier sessions in New York, Sydney, San Francisco, Denver, Vancouver and other cities where it has been offered,  there is good news: It will be offered online the first weekend in November. And there’s an additional incentive that has never been available until now: Register for November 3-4 class and you will have immediate, 24-hour access to the full, recorded version of the course. I will also ship you a copy of the 109-page course manual as soon as I’ve heard from you. And if you are not currently a subscriber to Rick’s Picks and sign up by October 21, I’ll throw in a free month’s subscription – a $42 value.

 

Class Nearly Sold Out

 

Don’t delay if you’ve been thinking of taking this seminar, since there are only two seats left of the original 14. They are going to fill within the next day or two, and there are no other classes scheduled at this time.

 

For your convenience, the seminar will be held on Saturday and Sunday morning, November 3-4, in two three-hour segments. In addition, after you’ve had some time try out your new skills, you’ll have a chance to query me directly during an open-ended, two-hour chart session online.

 

The Hidden Pivot course could be the best opportunity you will have to learn how to forecast as accurately and confidently as paid gurus. It doesn’t take a PhD to master the technique either, since you’ll be taught how to look at stock charts as “art,” rather than in the conventional way.

 

Training Manual & Recordings

 

Here’s what you’ll get if you sign up now:

 

·         The two-day, six-hour Hidden Pivot course and training manual

·         A two-hour Q&A follow-up once you’ve had time to try the system

·         Free “continuing education” classes online

·         Free 24-hour access to recorded seminars, tutorials and Q&A sessions

·         A free-month’s subscription, with access to the Rick’s Pick chat room during market hours

·         Access to thousands of annotated charts in the paid-subscriber archive

·         Access to the Educational Pages, with simple but effective strategies for risk management and market timing

·         Rick’s daily Touts, including detailed trading recommendation for stocks, indexes, futures and options

·         Dave McDonough’s “Excellent Hidden Pivot Calculator”

·         Rick’s idiosyncratic put-and-call advice, which distills more than 30 years of trading experience down to a few simple essentials

 

Sign up now and receive all of these benefits and more for just $960! To go directly to the registration page, click here , then on the “Upcoming” tab.  If you would like more information about the Hidden Pivot Method, or about upcoming sessions, including a possible on-site session in Florida this winter, please click here.

 

Hope to see you in class!