ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Stocks Shrug Off
More Bad News
For edition of October 25, 2007
Although we began yesterday long some QQQ puts and intending to hold them till Armageddon, we had second thoughts when sellers lost heart early in the session. The Dow was down 200 points at the time, but the blue chip average was clearly struggling to fall any further. After exiting the puts for a modest profit, we went back to spectating. In retrospect, the only place where the world seemed to be ending was in Southern California, where wildfires were devouring high-end homes by the hundreds and forcing the biggest evacuation in the state’s history.
On the statistical front, there were hints of Armageddon, including an 8 percent drop in existing-home sales that doubled the dartboard estimates of alleged economists. But Wall Street hasn’t paid much attention to such discouragements in recent years, and no one should have been surprised when investors imbibed this latest dose of statistical arsenic with no ill effects. And why not, since, as long as numbers like these keep flowing from the housing sector, the Fed will continue to do what it does best – i.e., loosen like there’s no tomorrow.
So grim have the numbers been lately that the smart money is betting on a 100 percent chance of a cut in the federal funds rate next week. Evidently, the only question at the moment is whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50. Either number will suit gold bugs just fine, since it’s not going to take much more profligacy to push bulllion quotes past $800 for the first time since the late 1970s. It’s been even longer than that since the Dollar Index went groping for bottom below 80, but U.S. investors seem inured to the insult of it by now. How else to explain a Dow Average that lies within 3.5% of record highs while the dollar continues to plumb new all-time lows? As the spinmeisters are fond of telling us, a weak dollar is the world’s problem, not America’s.
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Only Two Seats Left!
Take a look at the chart below. See anything that might have led you to predict that December Crude would make a very tradable top at 87.97? Would you like to learn how to forecast stocks and commodities as accurately yourself? Are you tired of having some guru tell you what to do? If so, then read on.
Now, Rick’s Picks has been predicting $100-a-barrel oil for quite a while. Even so, and bullish as we are on crude, we don’t always trade it from the long side. Consider the following short recommendation that went out to subscribers the other night. It is based on Hidden Pivot analysis: “[My rally target for December Crude] is 87.97, and you can short there with a 14-cent stop-loss… Since the correction could be shallow and brief, don't be too ambitious about profit-taking if the opportunity to do so should arise.”
Now take a look at the chart again and see how things played out:
A lucky coincidence? Hardly. Hidden Pivot targets get hit so precisely so much of the time that it couldn’t possibly be due to blind luck. Moreover, visit the Rick’s Picks chat room and you'll discover that the basics of the Hidden Pivot Method can be learned by anyone in just a few hours. But don’t take my word for it. Ask some of the regulars who have taken the Hidden Pivot seminar. They will tell you not only that it's possible for “amateurs” to forecast stocks and commodities with astounding accuracy, but that it's great fun! And why wouldn't it be, if it freed you from ever having to ask an "expert" what he thinks about a certain stock, or about "the market". Who cares what he thinks when you can learn how to do it yourself – to do it better, even, than quite a few gurus who do it for a living.
If you’ve heard about this course but could not attend earlier sessions in New York, Sydney, San Francisco, Denver, Vancouver and other cities where it has been offered, there is good news: It will be offered online the first weekend in November. And there’s an additional incentive that has never been available until now: Register for November 3-4 class and you will have immediate, 24-hour access to the full, recorded version of the course. I will also ship you a copy of the 109-page course manual as soon as I’ve heard from you. And if you are not currently a subscriber to Rick’s Picks and sign up by October 21, I’ll throw in a free month’s subscription – a $42 value.
Seminar Nearly Sold Out
Don’t delay if you’ve been thinking of taking this seminar, since there are only two seats left of the original 14. They could fill up quickly, and there are no other classes scheduled at this time.
For your convenience, the seminar will be held on Saturday and Sunday morning, November 3-4, in two three-hour segments. In addition, after you’ve had some time try out your new skills, you’ll have a chance to query me directly during an open-ended, two-hour chart session online.
The Hidden Pivot course could be the best opportunity you will have to learn how to forecast as accurately and confidently as paid gurus. It doesn’t take a PhD to master the technique either, since you’ll be taught how to look at stock charts as “art,” rather than in the conventional way.
Training Manual & Recordings
Here’s what you’ll get if you sign up now:
· The two-day, six-hour Hidden Pivot course and training manual
· A two-hour Q&A follow-up once you’ve had time to try the system
· Free “continuing education” classes online
· Free 24-hour access to recorded seminars, tutorials and Q&A sessions
· A free-month’s subscription, with access to the Rick’s Pick chat room during market hours
· Access to thousands of annotated charts in the paid-subscriber archive
· Access to the Educational Pages, with simple but effective strategies for risk management and market timing
· Rick’s daily Touts, including detailed trading recommendation for stocks, indexes, futures and options
· Dave McDonough’s “Excellent Hidden Pivot Calculator”
· Rick’s idiosyncratic put-and-call advice, which distills more than 30 years of trading experience down to a few simple essentials
Sign up now and receive all of these benefits and more for just $960! To go directly to the registration page, click here , then on the “Upcoming” tab. If you would like more information about the Hidden Pivot Method, or about upcoming sessions, including a possible on-site session in Florida this winter, please click here.
Hope to see you in class!
