October 18th, 2007 Price: Subscribe »

ARCHIVED COMMENTARY

Once again, stocks failed to recoup the day’s losses with that closing-hour stampede of short covering that has become a tradition on the NYSE. We’ve grown so accustomed to the Daily Goosing ourselves that when it fails to occur, as was the case in the last two days, we start to worry that something is amiss. But what?  Why would Wall Street bulls have any doubts about taking the plunge, given the spin-control lollapalooza that has been orchestrated so beautifully over these last couple of months by the central banks?

 

Most recently, we saw Citigroup call for a $100 billion interbank fund to shore up the market for so-called SIV’s, or structured investment vehicles. Have investors become so fretful that they are now questioning whether this sum will be adequate? Granted, the notional value of financial derivatives on the world’s books is headed toward the $600 trillion mark.  But it’s not as though it's all going to get marked to market one day, right?  

 

 

Or will it?  We can’t help thinking not only that it will happen and that it is inevitable, but that the supposed collateral will be found seriously wanting by lenders turned discerning with a vengeance.  In the meantime, with the central banks’ PR offensive revved to the max, it’s a wonder that the stock market would ever suffer a down day.  Yesterday, for instance. Treasury Secretary Paulson, speaking at Georgetown Law School, was so winningly earnest in acknowledging housing-sector troubles that the Wall Street Journal used the word “sobering” to describe the speech.  "The ongoing housing correction is not ending as quickly as it might have appeared late last year," said Paulson, "and it now looks like it will continue to adversely impact our economy, our capital markets, and many homeowners for some time yet."

 

Why So Glum?

 

Why so glum, Mr. Secretary? Wasn’t it just reported that consumer spending grew at a robust clip in September?  Can $100-a-barrel oil hurt us if $85 oil has not? And what about the stock market? The Dow Industrials are within two percent of all time highs. Housing slump aside, what better evidence could there be that America’s economy is as robust as ever? 

 

Of course, as a growing number of Americans must realize, it is only Paulson and his fellow policymakers who believe this stuff – along with guys like Kudlow who make a living pretending they do.  As for the rest of us, the Dow’s close proximity to record highs is evidence only that Wall Street has gone crazy. Or rather, crazier than at any time since 1929. Paulson says it will take longer than originally anticipated for the housing market to right itself.  That’s what politicians said as the Great Depression dragged on for a decade.  How spin control is going to stimulate another real estate mania – and nothing less can slow the juggernaut of a devastating debt deflation -- is beyond imagining.  With the holidays approaching, perhaps it’s better that we pretend for a little while longer that our leaders have all the answers. That they do not can only become increasingly apparent in the weeks and months ahead. In the meantime, we can only pray that the stock market does not spoil the illusion with a long-overdue epiphany.    

 

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Be Your Own Guru

 

 

 

Take a look at the chart below.  See anything that might have led you to predict that December Crude would make a very tradable top at 87.97?   Would you like to learn how to forecast stocks and commodities as accurately yourself?  Are you tired of having some guru tell you what to do?  If so, then read on.  

 

Now, Rick’s Picks has been predicting $100-a-barrel oil for quite a while. Even so, and bullish as we are on crude, we don’t always trade it from the long side.  Consider the following short recommendation that went out to subscribers the other night. It is based on Hidden Pivot analysis:  “[My rally target for December Crude]  is 87.97, and you can short there with a 14-cent stop-loss… Since the correction could be shallow and brief, don't be too ambitious about profit-taking if the opportunity to do so should arise.”

 

Now take a look at the chart again and see how things played out:

 

(Click on chart to enlarge)

 

A lucky coincidence?  Hardly. Hidden Pivot targets get hit so precisely so much of the time that it couldn’t possibly be due to blind luck.  Moreover, visit the Rick’s Picks chat room and you'll discover that the basics of the Hidden Pivot Method can be learned by anyone in just a few hours. But don’t take my word for it.  Ask some of the regulars who have taken the Hidden Pivot seminar.  They will tell you not only that it's possible for “amateurs” to forecast stocks and commodities with astounding accuracy, but that it's great fun!   And why wouldn't it be, if it freed you from ever having to ask an "expert" what he thinks about a certain stock, or about "the market".  Who cares what he thinks when you can learn how to do it yourself – to do it better, even, than quite a few gurus who do it for a living.

 

If you’ve heard about this course but could not attend earlier sessions in New York, Sydney, San Francisco, Denver, Vancouver and other cities where it has been offered,  there is good news: It will be offered online the first weekend in November. And there’s an additional incentive that has never been available until now: Register for November 3-4 class and you will have immediate, 24-hour access to the full, recorded version of the course. I will also ship you a copy of the 109-page course manual as soon as I’ve heard from you. And if you are not currently a subscriber to Rick’s Picks and sign up by October 21, I’ll throw in a free month’s subscription – a $42 value.

 

Only 14 Seats

 

Don’t delay if you’ve been thinking of taking this seminar, since there are only fourteen seats available. It could fill up quickly, and there are no other classes scheduled at this time.

 

For your convenience, the seminar will be held on Saturday and Sunday morning, November 3-4, in two three-hour segments. In addition, after you’ve had some time try out your new skills, you’ll have a chance to query me directly during an open-ended, two-hour chart session online.

 

The Hidden Pivot course could be the best opportunity you will have to learn how to forecast as accurately and confidently as paid gurus. It doesn’t take a PhD to master the technique either, since you’ll be taught how to look at stock charts as “art,” rather than in the conventional way.

 

Training Manual & Recordings

 

Here’s what you’ll get if you sign up now:

 

·         The two-day, six-hour Hidden Pivot course and training manual

·         A two-hour Q&A follow-up once you’ve had time to try the system

·         Free “continuing education” classes online

·         Free 24-hour access to recorded seminars, tutorials and Q&A sessions

·         A free-month’s subscription, with access to the Rick’s Pick chat room during market hours

·         Access to thousands of annotated charts in the paid-subscriber archive

·         Access to the Educational Pages, with simple but effective strategies for risk management and market timing

·         Rick’s daily Touts, including detailed trading recommendation for stocks, indexes, futures and options

·         Dave McDonough’s “Excellent Hidden Pivot Calculator”

·         Rick’s idiosyncratic put-and-call advice, which distills more than 30 years of trading experience down to a few simple essentials

 

Sign up now and receive all of these benefits and more for just $960! To go directly to the registration page, click here , then on the “Upcoming” tab.  If you would like more information about the Hidden Pivot Method, or about upcoming sessions, including a possible on-site session in Florida this winter, please click here.

 

Hope to see you in class!