ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
When to Turn
Cautious on Gold
For edition of February 13, 2007
With April Gold trading below $663 last week, we projected a $14 bull leg to at least 676.80. The good news is that we still think the futures are all but guaranteed to get there – and then some – over the very near term, and that’s despite yesterday’s bout of weakness, which saw the April contract shed nearly $10 since topping at 673.90 on Friday. There is no bad news to offset this forecast, not really, but a cautionary note is warranted, since not far above our 676.80 target lie two Hidden Pivots that could cause the rally begun in early January from near $600 to stall. Moreover, because these targets are close together, they can be expected to form a pretty sturdy barrier.
(Click on chart to enlarge)

We usually divulge specific, tradable price objectives only in the paid-subscriber pages of the newsletter, but just this once, rather than titillate lurkers with louche innuendo, we’ll note simply that our targets lie, respectively, at 680.60, and 682.00. A specific strategy for leveraging them is given in the Touts section of Tuesday’s newsletter. As always, if the futures blow through these targets, it doesn’t mean we have somehow miscalculated or that they did not “work”; rather, it will be a clear sign that the bull is fixing to punch right past $700.
Meanwhile, for the entertainment of Hidden Pivot aficionados, I’ve reproduced an hourly chart of April Gold (see above) that contains all of the information needed to come up with our two “ironclad” targets. Can you guess where to place the relevant ABC coordinates? If you’re stumped, I’ll provide the answer in the chat room tomorrow morning. Hint: The patterns I will show you are compelling, but they are not pretty.
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Boca Raton Seminar
I’ve received numerous requests to offer a Hidden Pivot seminar in Boca Raton, Florida, among other places, and will do so if there is sufficient interest. Please let me know if you would be seriously interested in attending the class. The two-day session would be held sometime in the Spring of 2007. To get on my mailing list, drop me an e-mail, including your contact information. The cost would be $1,500 USD.