The statistical mirage of an economy on-the-mend continues to grow, this time with a pseudo-statistic from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM reported yesterday that its non-manufacturing index for April rose to 52.0, from 49.6 in March. The usual

bunch of dartboard-trained “economists” supposedly had “expected” a much smaller increase, to 49.8, so the jump to 52.0 was being heralded as relatively good news – news suggesting that perhaps the most dire economic scenarios may not be playing out as imagined. However, we would suggest that readers take these numbers with a grain of salt, since the non-manufacturing sector, particularly banking and real estate, are not what they seem to be.

Consider this: How many bankers or realtors do you know who have gone on the dole? We could count perhaps two dozen realtors as personal friends, and although most of them would tell you that business has been pretty tough, as far as we know, none has filed for unemployment compensation.  To the contrary, rather than throwing in the towel, they all seem to be working twice as hard to make half as much as they did in boom times. That’s undoubtedly true for many others who until recently formed the backbone of American prosperity: hedge fund managers, financial planners, mortgage brokers and consultants of all stripes.

Beating the Draw

So how bad would things have to get before the $150k-a-year consultant starts weighing the pros and cons of giving up? You can do the math yourself, since weekly unemployment checks max out at around $350.  The decision itself would depend on the individual, but one imagines that the economy would have to be in ruins before a guy who was making $150k a year comes to believe he can’t beat a $1,400-a-month draw. Unfortunately, there are no half-employed workers where jobless benefits are concerned. Either you or working or you are not, and you cannot receive unemployment payments until you have declared yourself completely without income.

And that’s why you can flush the ISM report down the toilet, since these guys wouldn’t be able to sniff trouble in the non-manufacturing sector unless unemployment were at Depression-era levels.  While nothing will stop Wall Street’s sales force and CNBC shills from hyping the lie that the worst is past, we think you’d have to be a fool to bet on it.

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Free Hidden Pivot Demo on Friday

Can a novice learn in mere months how to interpret stock and commodity charts more accurately than many experts who do it for a living? Rick’s Picks  invites you to find out for yourself. Click here, then on the “Upcoming” tab, to sign up for a free Hidden Pivot demonstration this Friday morning from 9 to 10 (Mountain). The session is open to anyone seriously interested in attending the Hidden Pivot Seminar slated for May 21-22 (two consecutive evenings). During Thursday’s session we will attempt in real time to identify trading opportunities in such popular trading vehicles as Comex Gold and Silver, the Diamonds, QQQs and E-Mini S&Ps.

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The Rick’s Picks chat room is the place to be if you’re looking for tradable ideas in real time.  Gold and silver traders in particular can benefit, since the room attracts experienced traders from all over the world at all hours of the day, particularly during U.S. market hours. If you would like a free one-day pass to check it out, click here, and then on the green banner.