Bottom-fishing at the 257.71 target of this pattern looks so promising that I hate to queer its magic with this semi-public ad. The target looks likely to be reached because the stock never poked above p=266.91 after first penetrating it on the way down. Still, the failure to bounce precisely from the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2=262.31) is more than a little mystifying, since it is highly unlikely the support was front-run. (I've masked two coordinates for proprietary reasons). I would call this a back-up-the-truck trade if the target had been disseminated and triggered intraday. As things stand, however, you'll need to use small-pattern 'camo' to get aboard with risk held to a practical minimum. _______ UPDATE (Mar 5): Sunday's rickisms in this space set a new world record for the number of forehead-slapping errors your editor has committed in a single tout. The 257.71 target boldfaced in the original tout, above, did indeed nail a tradeable low with the eye-popping precision you have come to expect from Rick's Picks. The trouble is, I used MSFT in the header, but the tout pertained to AAPL. Now here's where the rickisms grew so thick that some of you may have feared your editor had imbibed a bad dose of LSD; for in fact, the chart included with the tout showed neither Microsoft nor AAPL, but April Gold. Fortunately, or perhaps not, there seems to be only one subscriber who remotely cares about Microsoft, and it is was hhis comment in the chat room about my "janky" tout that prompted this update. To make amends, I've replaced the gold chart with one of MSFT so that you can see that things worked out almost precisely according to the forecast. Because the alert subscriber is one of the most experienced traders who frequents the
I restored AAPL to the core list last week with reservations. The company is a dim also-ran in the AI race, having only recently found a partner in Google, the creator of Gemini. There is also the chance Musk will eventually make iPhones obsolete. He keeps insisting that Starlink has no phone on the drawing board, but he's probably just trying to screw with Tim Cooke's head. When the XPhone finally arrives, with superior hardware and no monthly service charge, that will be it for Apple. Concerning the chart, AAPL's steep slide on Friday triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (259.09), stop 243.41. Ordinarily, we're supposed to feel queasy about excuting such trades, since they will always be going against the trend. In this case, however, I will recommend it only to Pivoteers who know how to fashion a reverse-pattern trigger that risks no more than $3.00 per share theoretical on the entry. It should be good for a one-level ride to p=274.76 if it works. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20): The long position suggested from 259.09 ended the week $5 in-the-black. Continue to hold for a shot at 274.76, or even 306.09. You can raise the stop-loss to 255.81.
I've returned AAPL to the list, since MSFT's dirge is no longer representative of the animal spirits that have been moving the markets higher. The chart shown leaves room for a possible double top, but I've selected a lower point 'A' in order to project a likely move to new record highs. The move through p=274.76 is not quite powerful enough to guarantee this, but it will offer 80% odds if the stock can close for two more consecutive days above p=274.76. At the point, the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2=290.42) would become my minimum upside objective. If a pullback to the green line (x=259.09) were to occur first, it would offer a stellar opportunity for a 'mechanical' buy, stop 242.00.
I've returned AAPL to the list temporarily because a rally to the 198.03 'reverse target' shown in the chart would set up a juicy shorting opportunity. It could take a couple of weeks for the stock to get there, and you can trade it from the long side until that happens, but it promises to be worth the wait. For now, the company's aggressive infusion of buyback helium has given AAPL an artificial boost. Considering the $110 billion sum involved, it might seem as though this is the last stock anyone should want to short, even if the company is an innovative has-been in the same dubious pantheon as Disney. Buyback aside, the chart says AAPL is going to repeat Garbo's ominous cough in the second reel of Camille when it gets to 198.03. Stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications, especially if you're new to Rick's Picks or have never in your life experienced a winning option trade.
The pattern shown simplifies AAPL's tortured histrionics so that you can trade the stock without fear of significant loss. A drop to x=183.27, for starters, could be bought 'mechanically' for a minimum one-level ride. And D=195.33 could be shorted, albeit gingerly, with the tightest possible stop off a reverse pattern. If the stock pops through 195.33 with little effort, you can infer that the rally is about to pick up tempo and move into record territory for the third time since July.
The criminally engineered, $8 shakedown on the opening bell Friday missed my 176.93 target by a hair, setting up a possible short-term bottom. If so, AAPL looks like it will ripen for 'mechanically' shorting at the green line (x=191.04), even if a subsequent relapse only delivers a one-level profit. In retrospect, my decision to switch to MSFT as our one-size-fits-all bellwether appears to have been sound. The stock has clearly lost its mojo, even if it still moves with the heft of a blue whale.
The 'mechanical' short I mentioned here last week came home to roost with a pop through the green line (x=193.54) on Monday. OE (Option Experiment) participants already hold a small bearish position in the form of a vertical put spread, but it expires on Friday and won't come alive unless the stock tanks $10. That's hardly impossible, but I was reluctant to open a new front ahead of the weekend with an additional position. We should trade with a bearish bias because of the 'mechanical' signal, so stay tuned to the chat room and your email notifications if you want to keep apprised. My strong gut feeling is that AAPL is much too hired to hoist itself above the 199.62 point 'C' high of the reverse pattern shown without pulling back first, possibly sharply.
Just a small push this week will bring AAPL up to the green line, where it would become a promising 'mechanical' short. I would expect a profitable pullback to at least the next level, p=187.47, but I doubt the stock is ready to fall into the abyss. To remind you: The green line (x=193.54) is not a support, resistance, Hidden Pivot or target, just a place at or near which we sometimes initiate trades. We'll look for an opportunity to do so with a risk-averse 'camouflage' set-up when the stock reaches the line, presumably on Monday if Friday's nutty wilding spree continues.
A moment of truth, if not THE moment, likely impends as AAPL rises toward the green line. Assuming it gets there this week or perhaps early next, the stock would become as juicy a 'mechanical' short as we could hope for. If, instead, it gores bears with a move above the pattern's 'c' high at 199.62, that would surely be bullish, notwithstanding the head-fake possibility I've warned about in the ES tout (see above). A third possibility is that AAPL will fall to d=175.31 of the reverse pattern. That would create a bottom-fishing opportunity that we should not pass up, even if the expected bounce proves to be a short-lived last gasp for this aging bull.
Sellers obliterated the 187.47 'midpoint support' of the pattern shown last week, clearing a path for more downside to at least D=175.31. Any one- or two-level rally in the meantime would set up an attractive 'mechanical' short. Bottom-fishing at D will be a high-odds play as well, although the pattern, even though an rABC, may be too obvious for a penny-ante stop-loss. In such situations, shorting puts is likely to be a better tactic than buying calls.
