It's not just the daily graph that looks heavy. On both the weekly and monthly charts, ahead of the surge in March, price lows since early 2025 have exceeded granite Hidden Pivot supports. This suggests that crude's histrionics in response to the war with Iran were all but ordained to fall short of significant new highs. But easing is another matter, since it could take months or even years for prices to settle down to whatever passes for normal in such heavily manipulated markets. In the meantime, we are fortunate that traders and investors have become bored half to death with Trump's daily pronouncements on the war and the 'situation' in the Strait of Hormuz. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe in the Middle East, you can look for quotes to fall as low as 51.60 over the intermediate- to long-term. Two consecutive monthly closes below 85.54 would shorten the odds of this.
It is seldom a good sign when a trading vehicle triggers a 'mechanical' buy and then fails to reach the first profit-taking level. That is what has happened here, starting with the May 28 dip to the green line (x=4414.70). The subsequent bounce over the next day-and-a-half looked promising as it ascended toward the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=4666.90), where we typically exit half of a position. Unfortunately for bulls, the rally fell about $30 short. Although we should always be prepared to implement a 'dynamic' or an impulsive trailing stop when a symbol we are trading approaches a target, in this case, the gap was too large to trigger that instinct. The subsequent relapse to below x would seem to offer an even better opportunity, but not in this case. The futures look too heavy for us to test our luck, and so we'll simply wait for the seemingly inevitable breach of the pattern's 'c' low at 4162.60. It is still possible to get long anywhere between 'c' and 'x' using a 'camo' trigger, but I recommend this only to subscribers who are familiar with the tactic. It is covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot Course I've made available free to subscribers.
Friday's lurch higher easily penetrated the 3344 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown, implying the uptrend will continue to at least 3425.40. Since the rally ended the day just beneath our sweet spot for setting up mechanical trades, I would strongly recommend tightly stopped bottom-fishing on a pullback to x=3304.30 (the green line). If you get on board and make a few bucks on the way up, use a portion of your profits to cushion a stop-loss from 3425.40.
How are you coping with gold's endless dither? It just entered its fourth month, and there is not much to celebrate. Of course, everyone "knows" it will be moving higher. Just not now. Last week's tout warned subscribers not to get too excited if the futures should take flight, since no rally since April has shown any follow-through. And so it went yet again, with a fleeting surge to nowhere that was reversed just as quickly. Looking ahead, there is a magnetic Hidden Pivot target at 3695 that gold's handlers will not be able to put off indefinitely. Keep it in mind as we endure the anomie of markets that have been rigged by Hamptons capos for silent running.
The pattern shown looks too pretty not to work, and that means the futures are likely to fall to at least p=3276.40 (the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, shown as a red line) before they can attempt to surpass C=3389.30. True, the pattern lacks a one-off-point 'A'. But the well-formed A-B impulse leg, which exceeded two prior 'external' lows, more than compensates for this flaw. Assuming the correction resumes in earnest this week, 3276.40 will be an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. Alternatively, if bullion's canny handlers gut my bearish pattern by popping the futures above C=3389.30, I wouldn't get too excited, since gold's rallies have gone nowhere since April.
Gold's tedious consolidation for a shot at 3681.60 is now well into its third month, sapping my enthusiasm for pretending there is something interesting to talk about. The August contract has tripped several profitable 'mechanical' buy signals since mid-May, but each required close tending to produce a win. For the time being, the best opportunity we are likely to see would entail buying at the 'd' target of a reverse pattern on the chart shown, or perhaps the 60-minute. I will signal this if warranted.
The pattern shown in the inset sucks for trading because the 'a' and 'c' highs are nearly equal, and because the a-b leg did not surpass any prior 'external' lows. That's why I'll suggest paper trading this one unless you know how to craft a small-pattern trigger (aka 'camouflage') that can reduce the $8200 entry risk to $270 or less per contract. However, merely spectating should help us determine with greater confidence whether the soul-crushing tedium of the last two months is more likely to give way to a breakout, or a breakdown. Regardless, if the August contract touches the green line (x=3394.70), that would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 3477. If the hypothetical trade produces a profit, that will imply that bears have at least a small edge at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 1:45 a.m. EDT): The futures will fall to at least 3301.80 before they can find a foothold. Bottom-fish there with a tight rABC trigger if you are familiar with the tactic. Otherwise, I'd suggest spectating.
Sellers savaged the 3313.20 midpoint support with such ease last week that the futures are likely to continue down to at least p2=3231.60. And if they fail to get a strong bounce from that Hidden Pivot, expect the correction to hit D=3150.00. An additional possibility is that the turn will come from near the middle of the gap between p and p2, or between p2 and D. Unfortunately, the only way one can trade that scenario with risk tightly controlled is to watch for the turn on a chart of every small (i.e., one- or two-minute) bar chart. And here's one more possible bottom-fishing opportunity for Pivoteers who know how to craft a low-risk trigger: 3253.30, a voodoo number. ________ UPDATE (Jul 2, 1:19 a.m.) The futures opened on a gap down to 3250.50 on Sunday afternoon, triggering a long entry at 3257.60. (The 'reverse' used to fashion the trigger can be found on the 30-min chart, where a=3266.50 on 6/27 at 9:00 a.m.) The pattern, the only one available, could not have produced a losing trade, but it triggered at a time of day when relatively few would have been watching. I have not established a tracking position because no one reported getting long.
Right on cue, Bloomberg.com splashed an article on its front page over the weekend explaining why the price of crude has been so subdued in the face of potentially severe supply disruptions in the Middle East. Turns out the world is awash in oil, the article explained — not just because of the success of U.S. fracking, but also because the Saudis have been pumping oil like crazy to stabilize their market share. The article was almost surely planted by Bloomberg’s masters in Washington to calm the herd. Energy markets are very heavily manipulated, and PR is frequently used to nudge quotes one way or the other, ostensibly “in the national interest.” Capping prices would appear to be a high priority at the moment, superseding the $100-a-barrel needs of traders and speculators who thrive on volatility. But who is kidding whom? Just beneath the veneer of eerie, artificial calm lurks enough pent-up panic to push quotes from a current $72 to $100 literally overnight. That’s why I’m sticking with a forecast from a week ago that August Crude will hit a minimum $86. In the meantime, don’t be lulled by the way bulls were rebuked this morning with a so-far $8 reversal from 78. Too many things could go wrong for oil prices to be this docile, and for stocks to be hovering so close to record highs. Only fools are buyers of shares at these levels. _______ ADDENDUM (1:25 p.m. EDT): Sunday evening's fleeting spike, noted above, came within three cents (0.03) of the 78.37 rally target I had flagged in the earlier tout as a good bet. If you took that bet and then got short at the target with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel, you could have caught an up-and-down ride worth as much as
Although crude oil is certainly tradable using Hidden Pivots, it rarely traces out patterns that I like. This one is an exception, however, and it promises to do everything we might ask of it. That means: 1) providing a good 'buy' signal at x=73.83, which it has already done; 2) offering a tightly stopped short at p=75.34; 3) making a move to D=78.37 a high confidence call if p is penetrated decisively; and 4) yielding a high-odds 'mechanical' buy at the green line if a pullback to it should occur from in-between p=75.34 and p2=76.86. Are you ready for this cornucopia of opportunity? _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 7:25 a.m. EDT): The futures gapped explosively to within three cents (0.03) of the 78.37 target I flagged above as a good bet. If you took that bet and then got short at the target with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel, you could have caught and up and down ride worth as much as $4,000 per contract.
