bullion

Sunday evening, always a special time

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Index futures and bullion have opened quietly Sunday evening, presumably because the scumbags who fade bids and offers at this especially opportune time of the week are uncertain about whom they are going to rip off, and how.  Their reticence suggests that retail customers (aka pigeons/marks) are themselves perhaps without clue, much less inspiration or fear.

A Washout in Bullion?

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Late Tuesday night, June Gold was within an inch of the 1534.70 target we've been using to stay out of trouble. Because there are even lower targets for certain other bullion vehicles track by Rick's Picks, however, we shouldn't be surprised if the support fails. A climactic washout  could occur in the days ahead, so any bottom-fishing should be via 'camouflage' on the terms I've specified.

Is Fear of Deflation Sapping Gold and Silver?

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

There’s no point in pretending it’s those sleazy, child-molesting bullion bankers at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and  J.P. Morgan who have been pounding on mining stocks and bullion futures in the last few months.  Lately, it has felt like the whole world has been dumping them.  For the record, we are ourselves cautious buyers of bullion futures and select mining stocks at these levels, since many popular trading and investment vehicles that we track are closing on important Hidden Pivot correction targets. (Want to find out the exact prices at which were are doing the buying? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks, including real-time guidance and a 24/7 chat room where the discussion never stops.) When bottom-fishing in markets that have been falling as steeply as gold and silver have been falling, we recall the advice of our friend, the late Malcolm Watts: “When attempting to catch a falling piano,” Malcolm, a PSE option trader and gifted technician, used to say, “wait until it has bounced three times.” (It was not a falling piano that felled our friend when he was in his thirties, by the way, but the stresses of the market on an apparently defective heart.)  So, have bullion futures bounced the required three times yet? By our count, there have been more like four bounces since February. And although that may not mean it’s perfectly safe to buy the precious-metals complex at current levels, it does imply that those who waited are happy they did. By and large, however, precious-metal bulls are probably feeling shell-shocked by now, since many of the stocks that they hold dear  – quality companies like Silver Wheaton, Newmont and Yamana – have been sold nearly to death.  The shares of these firms and many others looked like great

What We Really Think About Gold

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Paying subscribers get to see quite a bit more of Rick’s Picks than lurkers might infer from reading the free commentaries that go out each day to many thousands of readers. A headline that will have caught the eye of the latter was this one, from the May 2 edition: Gold’s Nastiness Hints of a Major Bottom. Comex June Gold subsequently fell $76, and we were therefore unsurprised to receive e-mails from lurkers who evidently had been caught flat-footed by this supposedly unforeseen (by us, anyway) bout of weakness. In fact, the daily “trading touts” that lie behind the Rick’s Picks subscriber wall have been far more cautious than outsiders would likely know. Just yesterday, in fact, we offered a projection for GDXJ, a proxy for junior mining stocks, that may have caused some subscribers’ scalps to crawl. (Click here for a free trial subscription if you want to see just how low we think this favorite of gold bulls could conceivably go.) So which is it:  Are we bullish on gold, as our headlines would seem to imply? Or do we privately shrink from the risk of owning bullion? The answer is that, although we are bullish on gold and silver for the long-term and have been socking away bullion coins for years, we are not so certain that it will achieve the stratospheric heights that some gurus have predicted. However, what we are most confident in saying is that, come hell or high water, gold’s purchasing power will more than hold its own relative to all other classes of investable assets.  We would concede, however, that the fantastic price targets of some bullion superbulls have a few things going for them.  For one, the U.S. dollar is already intrinsically worthless, and that implies that real money – i.e.,

A Painless Way to Buy Plummeting Mining Shares

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Without intending it, Rick’s Picks may have become an oasis for gold and silver bulls who are at the point of despair over the mining sector's relentless, and presumably unjust, plunge. We have good news for you:  Using technical tools to tweak your timing and risk management, it’s possible to buy “crap” stocks all the way down without getting hurt if you’re early. We use the word “crap” ironically, of course, since it is only when stocks have been beaten down as badly as those in the mining sector that they become screaming bargains. And that pretty much sums up the situation as far as we’re concerned. Not that the blighters who have been doing the selling couldn’t bludgeon bullion shares even lower before they relent. In the meantime, wouldn’t it be lovely to take all that stock from their undeserving hands -- and to do so without penalty or punishment if we are premature? On the subject of mining-sector “crap,” a perfect example is the execrated and abhorred GDXJ, an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the shares of junior gold mining companies.  Although it has an ardent following among Rick’s Picks subscribers, GDXJ has unfortunately proven treacherous to the financial health of long-term investors. Some of them may have thought GDXJ looked like a great bargain a couple of months ago when it was trading for around $30 a share, down from a high of $43 in 2011. We told subscribers to hold off on buying, however, warning that the stock could eventually fall to $20 or even lower. That is still a possibility. Nonetheless, to avoid missing a possible long-term bottom, we started nibbling at 23.93, a “Hidden Pivot” target first advertised in the newsletter when GDXJ was still above $26.  The buy at 23.93 proved timely

A buying opportunity in bullion

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Assuming the selloff in bullion was as gratuitous as the one that occurred yesterday in stocks, we may have a chance to buy at better prices than obtained a few days ago. Accordingly, I've proffered actionable touts for today not only for June Gold and May Silver, but for GDXJ, the Junior Gold Miner ETF that we exited a while back with the intention of repositioning at a better price. The charts accompanying each of these vehicles will give you an idea of how subtle an entry pattern we're looking for in order to keep buying risk as low as possible in a falling market.

View Friday’s Rally in Gold with Caution

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

The week ended on an encouraging note for bullion investors, but can we trust this rally? Only with caution. Our hunch is that it was a false start and that precious-metal futures and mining stocks will re-test their recent lows.  This puts in doubt a profitable long position we’d recommended  in GDXJ, the Junior Gold Miner ETF.  Our suggested entry point at 23.93 was hit on Thursday, three cents from the low. The number is a “Hidden Pivot support” that we’d disseminated to subscribers when GDXJ was trading above $26. We’d like to think the trade will work out beautifully, meaning an eventual doubler to $50 a share. Even so, we’ve already taken a precautionary step by closing out half of the initial position on the very small paper gain that existed prior to yesterday’s rally. Although we’ve characterized our short-term bearish outlook as a “hunch,” it is buttressed by technical reasoning.  What concerns us most is the heavy look of bullion-sector charts even after Friday’s rally. Indeed, there is such clarity in the larger, downtrending patterns on these charts that their respective downside targets look almost magnetic.  You can see this in the GDXJ chart above – and you don’t need to be a graduate of the Hidden Pivot Course to sense the earnestness of the selling. The ABC price points established a bearish Hidden Pivot target at 22.74 that lies $1.16 beneath the low where subscribers were advised to get on board. Notice as well that the upper red line – what we call a “midpoint support” – appears to have mutated into resistance. Not Goldman Sachs Now, if this were a stock that we love to hate -- Goldman Sachs springs to mind -- we’d probably tell subscribers to reverse their long positions and go short near

Think the Gold Bull Died Yesterday?

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Stocks and bullion have been moving synchronously for some time, so if you believe yesterday's downdraft on the latter is the end of the bull market, you also have to believe that it marked the end of the Mother of All Bear Rallies in stocks as well.  Whatever you believe, be sure to check out this morning's touts for the E-Mini S&Ps and Gold, since they address the technical side of the question.