December

GCZ23 – December Gold (Last:2020.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Buyers impaled the 2073.00 target of the reverse pattern shown, implying the futures are on their way to at least 2152.60, the D target of a lesser pattern whose A & C coordinates are shown in the chart.  Given the way bulls consolidated above the smaller pattern's midpoint pivot, the probability is high that D will be achieved with little ado. Since the futures by then will have broken free of gravity at $2,000, we should expect a relatively quick move from 2152 to 2,200, the first round number resistance above the soon-to-be-obliterated one at $2,100. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 11:47 a.m.): I'll bet our old friend Andy Maguire had a thing or two to say about Monday's psychopathic, whoopee cushion reversal in gold. He has noted that the pond scum who cause these takedowns have a risk cushion of as much as $90 in the arb against unlimited paper gold. Although they are obviously still able to squash gold down to $2000 practically at will, DaScumballs are going to find in increasingly difficult to fool investors into thinking gold deserves to be significantly lower than that. For now, the February contract is headed down to the 2001.50 target shown in this chart -- a good place to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing. Any lower would indicate 1986.90, an even better bet for bottom-fishing if it is achieved.    

GCZ23 – December Gold (Last:2048.30)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Gold delivered on a 'mechanical' buy last week without getting anywhere near the 1955 stop-loss that would have applied. I'll therefore stick with the longstanding target at 2070.70, although the impulse leg that produced it leaves something to be desired. Specifically, it peaked without having exceeded the 'external' peak at 2028.60 recorded on July 20. The rally was impulsive nonetheless because it surpassed other 'external' peaks along the way, but the fact that it looked the high at 2028.60 in the eye, so to speak, without being able to hurdle it suggests reticence and uncertainty in buyers. ______ UPDATE (Nov 24): Scant progress last week produced no change in my analysis or outlook. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:12 p.m.): With the futures head-butting peaks recorded on Halloween near $2,000, gold's handlers had little choice but to let 'er rip toward the $2070 target we've been using to keep from getting fooled or scared into submission. The smaller pattern shown in this chart, with a 2074.30 target, provides a finer shading if you want to trade this vehicle. ________ UPDATE (Nov 29, 10:53 a.m.): The effortless move through p=2033 of this pattern has all but clinched more upside over the next two weeks to at least 2131.00. Once buyers have pulverized that Hidden Pivot resistance, look for a blitzkrieg rally to 2200 and higher. ________ UPDATE (Dec 1, 10:45 a.m.): February Gold has precisely achieved a $2073 target equivalent to the still unachieved one at $2070 in the December contract. This is a contango oddity, but our focus should be on the February contract, since it is the active month. Here's the chart: https://bit.ly/3N7YgD7

SIZ23 – December Silver (Last:25.05)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Silver's chart, although clearly bullish, has all the problems of gold's and then some. The pattern that produced the 24.955 target has a dubious impulse leg that failed to surpass any 'external' peaks. Also, there is an authoritative trendline just above last week's highs that is not likely to be a pushover. And finally, the futures spent the last two days of the week head-butting a secondary pivot at 24.20 that refused to give way. My gut feeling is that the target will be achieved anyway, but I'll wait for the futures to push above some daunting 'external' peaks recorded in July and August before we break out the bubbly. _______ UPDATE (Nov 24): Silver's chart handily outperformed gold's last week, shortening the odds of a further push to the 24.955 target given above. What happens after that will be crucial to the intermediate-term picture, since an 'external' peak at 25.425 recorded on August 30 will beckon a test of buyers' enthusiasm.  ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:30 p.m.): Helped by last week's wicked upthrust, the December contract today hit and then exceeded the 222222224.93 target shown. It is slightly lower than the one given here previously, but the pattern to which it is tied is sufficiently compelling for us to infer the small overshoot of the target on the close portends even higher prices this week. Look for a push above August 25.035 peak, but with some potential rally-stopping 'voodoo' resistance prices between here and 25.68.

CLZ23 – December Crude (Last:75.84)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

December crude's month-long fall did sufficient damage to the longer-term charts to require a rally above $83 to undo it.  However, we'll focus on the short-term picture to determine whether the bounce last Thursday from 72.16 is likely to show staying power. Steep as it was, it still fell a tad shy of the 76.62 target of the modest reverse pattern shown. Achieving it would still leave the futures two cents shy of generating an impulse leg with a leap above the external peak at 78.63 made last week on the way down. We'll delay judgment until we've seen how buyers handle both resistances.

GCZ23 – December Gold (Last:1967.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Sellers took out the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1947.00 with such ease the more downside to at least p2=1910.70 seems unavoidable. Thereafter, continued weakness to as low as D=1874.30 would become likely if p2 is decisively penetrated. For all its disappointments, we need to keep reminding ourselves that gold is in a bull market and that it will turn $2,000 into support only when its handlers -- mainly sovereign banks in concert with bullion bankers -- decide it's time to let 'er rip. The former will continue to accumulate gold in the meantime, and so should we. Stay tuned to the chat room and keep your 'Notifications' switched on if you want guidance in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:03 p.m.): If the rally hits the green line (X=1983.40), it would trip a 'mechanical' short. Paper trade this one just to keep score unless you know how to set up a 'camouflage' trigger 

SIZ23 – December Silver (Last:23.17)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

More slippage to at least D=22.04 looks unavoidable, given the way sellers obliterated the midpoint support (p) early Friday morning. This Hidden Pivot lies close enough to a cluster of obvious lows recorded in mid-October near 21. They look incapable of arresting silver's fall for long, implying a further fall to October lows near 21 in search of traction. There's a Hidden Pivot support at 21.69 you can use for purposes of precise bottom-fishing (daily, A-23.24 on 10/20). _______ UPDATE Nov 14, 8:07 p.m.): The futures trampolined higher after briefly dipping below the 22.04 Hidden Pivot noted above. Now, if they can shove past p=23.44 of this pattern, they should be presumed bound for D=24.95.

GCZ23 – December Gold (Last:1999.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We've all been wondering when $2000 will start looking more like support than resistance, an eventuality that showed no sign of happening over the last few weeks with the futures cavorting there and teasing bulls. It was an annoying exercise in tedium as gold slid up and down a greased pole of hopes and expectations. It doesn't help that most of the action took place beneath a slew of 'external' peaks recorded last May and July. My hunch is that the excruciating excess of deliberation is a consolidation for a sustained move that will ultimately leave $2000 in the dust. We'll continue to trade with a bullish bias unless a salaciously appealing opportunity arises to get short temporarily.

SIZ23 – December Silver (Last:23.28)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Recent price action in silver does not justify a bold prediction at the moment. However, my patiently bullish outlook for gold implies it will drag silver higher when the time comes. The most positive thing that can be said of the latter is that the spike high that occurred on October 20 exceeded an external peak at 23.81 that would likely have trapped many enthusiastic buyers badly. That means the moderate selloff since has been corrective and should be viewed as a buying opportunity. As such, our focus will be on doing so on weakness that meets our criteria for bottom-fishing. Stay tuned.

CLZ23 – December Crude (Last:77.17)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We ended the week with a nice score in crude futures that is detailed in the chat room. Check out Friday's discussion thread to determine whether you could have followed my simple, explicit instructions to reap a gain of at least $1070. It came by way of a day trade initiated in the early afternoon. This gambit went against the trend, leveraging a presumably minor breakout that died almost precisely at the p2 secondary target of our bullish pattern. So what's next? The selloff from just beneath June's $94 top comes as a surprise, since my recent forecasts have called for a run-up to at least $117. That's still possible, and the target will remain theoretically viable in any case unless the December contract plummets below $63. But the inability of DaBoyz to manipulate the price above the June high diminishes the likelihood of a blowoff. It's possible the 92.48 peak in late September was a terminal move, but the rally could still re-ignite if the Israel/Iran war escalates sufficiently to curtail global energy supplies. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10): Crude got savaged last week as sellers pushed the December contract beneath two important lows -- one internal the other external -- without an upward correction.  This generated a strong impulse leg that will require an even more powerful upthrust exceeding 83.60 to undo the damage.

GCZ23 – December Gold (Last:1998.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Gold completed a shallow consolidation last week before launching toward the 2068.00 target we've been using as a minimum upside objective. If buyers plow through this Hidden Pivot, our next price objective would be 2133.10, calculated by sliding the point 'A' low of the reverse pattern down to an 1820.00 low recorded last November. That would produce a conventional ABCD pattern, but it would be sufficiently gnarly to make the resulting Hidden Pivot levels useful for trading.