E-Mini Dow

My 11877 downside target missed Friday’s low by 14 points, so we did nothing officially.  The fact that the subsequent rally went on to create a bullish impulse leg of hourly chart degree is a modest positive ahead of Monday’s opening. This is notwithstanding the fact that the initial move Sunday night has been down.

There are two targets below, and shorts who catch a ride should be alert for a bounce from either (or perhaps both:  11921 or 11877. The lower number maxes out the hourly chart, suggesting that scalpers would enjoy favorable odds attempting to bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 6-7 ticks.  Keep in mind, though, they you will be getting in front of a downtrend that could only just beginning to show its power.

It’s a struggle to believe that this tedious, two-week hacking-cough-of-a-consolidation is going to produce anything resembling the moon shot we might expect after so lengthy a pause.  Assuming the futures go lower in the first place, my minimum expectation would be 11921, the ‘D’ target on the pattern shown. It can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks.  ______ UPDATE (2:11 a.m. EST): The futures have slithered up to a so-far high at 12141, but if they hit 12156, short there with a three-tick stop-loss — better yet, short 12155, a tick below the Hidden Pivot, with a four-tick stop-loss.  Best bet: Start looking for a camouflaged downturn when 12151 is reached.  ______ UPDATE (9:15 a.m. EST):  The futures topped overnight at 12148 — seven ticks from our offer — before plummeting back to 12062, so officially we did nothing.

A 12412 target identified here a while back remains viable, so let’s plan on shorting there with a stop-loss at 12421.  As is the case with the E-Mini S&Ps, my preference is to initiate the trade using camouflage.  I don’t usually advise getting involved on a Friday afternoon, but in this case, because a short-squeezy high on a Friday close would bamboozle even those who have been eager to get short for…years, scaring them from dong the right thing, I’ll make an exception. _______ UPDATE (Sunday, 8:28 p.m. EST):  The futures went the wrong way, but the target and the suggested trade remain viable.  Night owls can look for bottom-fishing opportunities at 12109 and/or 12041.

The bearish pattern begun from last Friday’s peak projects to at least 11921, a Hidden Pivot that you can bottom-fish with an 11923 bid and a five-tick stop-loss.  I’ve used a distinctive one-off point ‘A’ to calculate this target (shown in the accompanying chart). If the support is easily breached, that would shorten the odds that we are seeing more than a garden variety pullback. _______ UPDATE (4:52 p.m.):  Today’s flaccid rally did nothing to alter either the outlook or our plan. Look for more downside to 11921 over the near term.

We shorted 12355 and took a partial profit on the 29-point pullback that ensued. I’ll assume that any subscriber who took the trade covered on a feint later in the day to 12379, but if you stayed short, please let me know in the chat room or at rick@rickackerman.com so that I can establish a tracking position of two contracts for your further guidance. In any event, as suggested with the E-Mini S&Ps, you should look for opportunities to re-short this vehicle at the ‘p’ midpoint or ‘d’ target of any minor, upward abcd retracement that occurs. In addition, I’ll be posting explicit entry instructions for subscribers here and in the chat room if I spot a compelling opportunity intraday.