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E-Mini Dow
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The futures look bound most immediately for 12142, a Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. The target looks not only like a high-odds bet as a minimum upside price objective, but also a good place to attempt shorting with a stop-loss as tight as 12151. If you’re not reversing a long position there, a camouflage entry is recommended for the short.
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I’ve reproduced the Mini-Dow’s chart because it contains an opportunity similar to the one discussed in today’s E-Mini S&P tout. Note how a quickly formed A-B-C has begotten a tedious upward grind whose so-far high lies just shy of a longstanding ‘D’ target at 11491. You can short it with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but if the stop is tagged I’ll suggest trying again at 11510, a target derived from using the lowest low shown in the chart as point ‘A’. _______ UPDATE: The futures topped for the day at 11487, four ticks below the target, but I’ll suggest canceling the order rather than trying for sloppy seconds.
A rally target given here earlier has been superseded by a new one at 11474 that is equivalent to the one given in today’s tout for the E-Mini S&P. You can short it with a stop-loss as tight as six ticks. Please note that, unlike the Mini S&P, this vehicle has already breached the midpoint resistance, 11380, implying the target itself is likely to be reached. _____ UPDATE: 11448 is as high as it got, so we did nothing.
The rally pattern shown in the chart looks felicitous for either buying or shorting, depending on your mood. It features single-bar coordinates for A, B and C, but also the kind of eye-jarring asymmetry that tends to throw Gartley riff-raff and other 1-2-3 pattern-players off the trail. The high at the right-hand edge fell just a single tick from the 11380 midpoint, so any move above it should be considered a declaration that the futures are on their way — precisely — to 11474. It’s impossible to know how the breakout will play out, but ‘camo’ traders should be alert to any buying opportunities that crop up once the midpoint has been exceeded.
The 10760 correction target shown in the chart looks like a relatively safe place to try bottom-fishing later this week or early next, although the bounce we are implicitly expecting could come from as high as 10791 if the one-off ‘A’ rules. In any event, 10791 should serve as a minimum downside objective for the next 2-4 days. ______ UPDATE: Yesterday’s rally invalidated the target, so we’ll take this one off the board.
As of around 9:45 p.m. EDT, the futures were predicting the Dow would hold above 10000 in the face of moderate selling. The minimum downside target is 10024, but if that Hidden Pivot support should be violated by more than 5-7 points, it could open the floodgates over the near term down to as low as 9599. The accompanying chart shows the provenance of the 10024 target — a bearish pattern identical to the one being traced out at this moment by the E-Mini S&Ps.
Unlike the E-Mini S&P, the E-Mini-Dow never got close to a Hidden Pivot midpoint support that we’d flagged. It turned from 50 points above it, although this will not have bullish implications until such time as the futures push above 10722, a look-to-the-left peak recorded May 14 on the way down.
