E-Mini Dow

As of around 9:45 p.m. EDT, the futures were predicting the Dow would hold above 10000 in the face of moderate selling. The minimum downside target is 10024, but if that Hidden Pivot support should be violated by more than 5-7 points, it could open the floodgates over the near term down to as low as 9599.  The accompanying chart shows the provenance of the 10024 target -- a bearish pattern identical to the one being traced out at this moment by the E-Mini S&Ps.

Unlike the E-Mini S&P, the E-Mini-Dow never got close to a Hidden Pivot midpoint support that we'd flagged.  It turned from 50 points above it, although this will not have bullish implications until such time as the futures push above 10722, a look-to-the-left peak recorded May 14 on the way down.

I've been projecting a tradable low at 10258, a Hidden Pivot, but any bottom-fishing should be tied to a camouflage entry strategy using the 3-minute chart or lower. That number remains my minimum downside target for the near term, and it looks likely to be reached this morning if sellers show any gumption at all.

The futures went no lower 10411 before reversing into a short-squeeze rally, but the 10258 target remains valid nonetheless and can be used for bottom-fishing with a tightly stopped bid. Alternatively, bears can probably throw in the towel for the day if buyers push this brick above 10664, since that would create a promising impulse leg on the 15-minute chart.

A midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 10258 is equivalent to the one at 1098.75 given for the E-Mini S&Ps. Camouflage entry is suggested for initiating long positions near the target, but if you'd prefer to get long with a straight limit order, bid 10261, stop 10254.  This implies that you could take partial profits on a multilot position as early as 10282 -- 21 ticks above the entry -- since the initial theoretical risk is seven ticks. ______ UPDATE (2:38 a.m. EDT):  The futures are getting hit too hard tonight to suggest this is just a routine Sunday-night gangsta shakedown.  Use a camouflage strategy if you try bottom-fishing at 10258, but be prepared for the selling to continue down to at least 10232 if 10258 fails as support.

With this morning's lunatic price action, I have updated the Mini-Dow forecast to reflect a new rally targt at 10937.

As of around 10 p.m. EDT Sunday, the futures looked bound for 10670, a shortable Hidden Pivot (albeit a relatively risky one; a more conservative short can be initiated at 10712). That would represent a 335-point gain over Friday's close, and although it would not recoup last Thursday's loss completely, it would handily exceed the day's recovery high, creating an impressive bullish impulse leg in the process. _______ UPDATE (9:09 EDT):  The rally now measures to as high as 10937, well above last Thursday's pre-swoon high of 10865.  A pullback in the meantime to (precisely) 10569, the target's sibling midpoint, would telegraph the next thrust.

Late Wednesday night, the futures were playing toe-sies with a Hidden Pivot rally target at _____ (see chart).  The actual high so far is ____, and it could go either way.  Notice that I have used, not the one-off 'A' here, but the obvious one. That's because I needed to project the highest target possible from the existing pattern. If it is exceeded, we'll have to move up to the daily chart to find a rally pattern yet to play out. The most obvious one, going back to the March low, yields a bear rally objective of 10431.

Yesterday's spike high poked above a midpoint resistance on the hourly chart at 9605, so its 'D' sibling at _____ will be in play as a rally target as long as 9441 has not been exceeded to the downside.  If it is exceeded, however, your coordinates for a new rally target would be A=9249, B=9576, and C=[value of new low].