ESM13

With no serious sellers to oppose them, DaBoyz are making the usual hay on a Sunday night, effecting a so-far six-point levitation in this vehicle. The bigger picture is bullishly impulsive, based on last Thursday's vicious, all-day-long short-squeeze. However, based on a gut hunch, I'm inclined to short into any strength today.  Night owls may be able to find a way to do so directly on Sunday night if the rally peters out before morning.  However, on the 15-minute chart, and most immediately, the best opportunities may come from the long side.  As you can see (inset), there's a series of external peaks that could provide an easy way to initiate a 'buy'. Ideally, any profits you make trading with the bullish flow could be used to cushion the stop-loss for the first shorting opportunity.  _______ UPDATE (11:41 a.m. EDT): The futures have exploded higher this morning, so I've posted the following in the chat room to stoke the bullish imagination: "The 180-minute chart (see inset) shows three bull patterns driving this hoax right now. In descending order of magnitude, their respective point A lows occurred on 4/18/13, 6/6 and 6/13. The first, and biggest, pattern projects to 1746.75. That is congruent with a DJIA 16800 target that has been well noted. The small, and current, frisson projects to 1660.50, and I'd make that my minimum upside projection for the near term now that the 1639.00 p midpoint has been exceeded by a decisive 2.00 points.  However, the rally will be subject to presumably niggling interference at 1643.25, the D target of the pattern starting with June 6's 1591.00 low."

The futures turned maniacally higher from a bottom fully 10 points above our target, telegraphing the take-no-prisoners short-squeeze that was to follow.  DaScuzzballs were allowing only a shallow pullback Thursday night -- one that was not bearishly impulsive even on the lesser charts -- hinting that they will show no mercy when stocks open Friday morning.  If you're looking for a risk-averse way to board, I'd suggest 'camo' patterns on charts of 5-minute degree or less.  As of around 2:43 a.m. EDT, there was an excellent opportunity thereof for night owls. _______ UPDATE (11:51 a.m. EDT):  How odd.  On the 3-minute chart, the futures completed only one minor abcd rally overnight, and it went nowhere. Even on the  opening, with the obligatory short-squeeze to begin the day, the futures could muster no more than bull-trap spike to 1640.75.  The subsequent downtrend, still in progress, points to 1620.75, subject to the destruction of a midpoint support at 1627.00 that was precisely tested just moments ago.

I flagged a 1587.00 correction target here yesterday, and although it looks like a good bet for bottom-fishing intraday, another Hidden Pivot at 1572.25 posted by 'Sa1' in the chat room looks even more compelling. Look at the accompanying chart and you may find that the eye 'wants' to see a quick resolution of the downtrending abc.  Could the futures drop the requisite 38 points -- the equivalent of about 310 Dow points --  in just a few days?  The prospect hardly seems unlikely, let alone unusual.  Traders should position from the short side, using charts of perhaps 15-minute degree or less to identity opportunities carrying theoretical entry risk of no more than 3-5 ticks per contract.

Yesterday's short-lived show of bravado failed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, so we should expect the futures to head still lower on Wednesday.  If so, the first place where we might look for bulls to find traction is at the 1617.75 midpoint pivot shown.  If attempting to bottom-fish there, as well you might, I'd suggest looking for your opportunity on charts of 15-minute degree or less.  Please note, however, that an easy breach of this 'hidden' support would be telegraphing more downside over the near term to as low as 1587.00 -- a drop equivalent to about 300 points in the Dow. ______ UPDATE (9:29 a.m. EDT):  With stocks opening momentarily, the futures have in fact shredded their way higher overnight, albeit without having generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. That would occur with an additional push of 3.50 points above the so-far high, 1638.00.  On the 60m chart, camouflageurs should note the location of two external peaks that look well suited to getting long with little risk. They lie, respectively, at 1641.25 (6/11 at 3:00 a.m.) and 1642.25 (6/10 at midnight).

The futures spent the whole day failing to 'actualize' the bullish impulse leg that had occurred on the opening bar.  Even adroitly opportunistic markets like this one need a catalyst to move higher, but yesterday there was no economic news of significance in sight -- only the passage of a $955B farm bill whose details are probably best left unscrutinized. Night owls can nonetheless attempt to leverage the pattern shown to get long, but I'd recommend waiting for a second, gratuitous point 'C'  low to form before you pounce. This being Tuesday, odds will tend to favor higher prices.

When Friday's rally had run its course, the S&Ps had just inches remaining to reach the minimum upside target at 1645.75 shown in the chart. The futures had nonetheless created a promising impulse leg with a 1650.00 target that should come easilyy as the new week begins. Catching a ride will likely be difficult, however, since the only prior peak we've got for purposes of leveraging an entry trigger is the obvious one at 1645.75. Breakout artists will be using it for the same purpose, and so I am not recommending the trade except to camouflageurs and/or night owls who have been around the block.

Shorts were on the ropes at Thursday's close and unlikely to escape a bludgeoning when stocks begin to trade this morning.  Under the circumstances there is little to predict, and perhaps even to trade -- especially since the pullback from yesterday's high has been micro-shallow so far (see inset).

The 1593.75 downside target shown is analogous to the one at 14899 that I've flagged in today's DJIA tout.  It is an obvious place to attempt bottom-fishing or to try shorting if the futures should rally first to the 1619.75 midpoint pivot, which is now resistance. Camouflage is the preferred tactic in either case.  As I've noted in the Dow analysis, an easy breach of the target would imply more weakness to come.

DaBoyz struggled mightily yesterday afternoon to produce a winning close, but as you can see, the damage had already been done via a decisive breach of a midpoint support at 1627.00 (red line).  This augurs more downside to at least 1608.50, the 'D' target of the pattern shown.  Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1623.50 nevertheless, since that Hidden Pivot (A=1645.75 at 11:00 a.m. EDT ) is situated well enough to produce a tradable bounce on the way down. If it is easily brushed aside, however, we could see seller's dominate into week's end.  ______ UPDATE (1:50 p.m. EDT):  After bottoming at 1607.50, the futures are in the throes of a rally that should carry to at least 1618.00.  So far, one trader in the chat room has reported having made hay with the target.