ESU13

With summer officially over, stocks have come crawling out of the gate Sunday night, trying their darndest not to invite scrutiny or reflection in these extremely interesting times. DaBoyz need only goose this vehicle 7 points to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but I have my doubts they'll be able to muster even that much of a push, absent any news that could be construed as faintly bullish for stocks. Traders looking to get either long or short using 'camouflage' can fixate on the hourly chart until such time as 1654.75 is exceeded to the upside, or 1642.00 to the downside, since either event would generate a potentially tradable impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset).  Thereafter, you should look for your entry trigger on the 3-minute chart of less. _______ UPDATE (6:23 p.m. EDT): Yesterday's price action was such unmitigated slop that I'm not going to try to entice your further interest with a fresh tout, at least not today.  However, I've refreshed the chart nonetheless, since it offers a pretty good picture of what garbage looks like when it takes the form of price bars on a trader's graph. Notice that bears were unable to put this oft-nettlesome vehicle away -- a modest feat, since the D correction target lay not far below -- after bludgeoning the midpoint support for fully two hours. Price action since has been faintly bullish, but not sufficiently so to warrant our waiting patiently Wednesday for a buying opportunity on the lesser charts. _______ UPDATE (September 4, 9:52 a.m. EDT):  Bears were too enfeebled today to reach even the midpoint support of (60-minute) A= 1650.00 (9/3 at 10:00 a.m.), B= 1630.75 at 3:00 p.m.).  The result is the current rally -- destined to go nowhere, presumably, but nevertheless

Based on the tenesmus price action in the opening minutes of yesterday's session, I suggested in the chat room that traders take the day off. Now, based on the fact that the Labor Day holiday will already have commenced for most of Wall Street's best and brightest, I'd advise doing so again. If you have nothing else to do, however, and were looking forward to trading in the breezeless, fetid air of a Friday preceding a Labor Day, pay close attention to the 1647.00 external peak I've  flagged in the chart (see inset), since it could provide the best opportunity you'll have to get long via camouflage. Specifically, you should attempt it if a rally pulls back from just above that number, then embarks on a second leg. I've sketched it hypothetically for your further guidance.  I haven't mentioned any possibilities for bears because I doubt stocks will be able to make much southbound progress on a pre-holiday Friday, especially now that the Syria question has mutated into a civilizationally embarrassing global dither.

Yesterday's punk rally slithered back up to the midpoint support of the bearish pattern shown, implying that bulls are not eager to take on even small challenges. Indeed, merely marking time seems to be requiring all of the clever tricks they can muster.  Under the circumstances, the 1605.75 downside target shown (see inset) is still a logical price to use as a minimum projection for the near-term.  However, yesterday's heebee-jeebees left little doubt that getting short to that number will be vexatious at best. Bears should also be alert to short-squeeze set-ups intraday. I'd suggest monitoring the three-minute chart for this purpose -- and even to get long for a very short while if the opportunity is signaled, the better to build a profit to cushion the stop-loss on the short we're looking to execute.

The futures were  pussyfooting early Wednesday morning, reluctant to dive to the next Hidden Pivot target, 1605.75, unless pushed from the ledge. Judging from tonight's pathetic failure to climb back up to what had been a midpoint support, my guess is that the plunge, equivalent to 200 Dow points, will be over by the opening bell or not long thereafter. Night owls should therefore look for shortable patterns  on the 5-minute chart or less, but I'll also suggest bottom-fishing with 'camouflage' if 1605.75 is closely approached. If you want to see exactly the type of short-able ABC I'm talking about, check out this comely 'camo' pattern, which triggered on the 5-minute chart less than 20 minutes ago:  A=1632.50 (10:55 p.m. EDT); B=1628.75 (12:05 a.m.); and C=1630.75  (12:25 a.m.).

This Flying Pig succumbed to gravity late in yesterday's session, taking the nasty plunge we'd been expecting from the first. I opened an impromptu session at the start of the day after having suggested 45 minutes into it that traders short 1666.25, stop 1667.00. Alas, the three-tick stop-loss I'd advised missed the 1667.50 high by three tricks. A 13-point air-pocket eventually ensued, albeit after nearly five hours of screwing-the-pooch. In retrospect, because we were so confident that a tradable top was coming somewhere near 1667.00, it would have been appropriate to short the less-than-ideal 'camouflage' pattern that dropped in our lap just off the day's high.  This follows something I've repeated to Pivoteers many times --that the first 'camo' opportunity following a turn from a 'D' target (or from a p midpoint) will usually be the best, least risky and easiest opportunity we'll get to do the trade. Going forward, and bearish though we be, we'll still have to respect the fact that the impulsive rally from Friday's 1650.00 low remains somewhat more powerful than yesterday's barely impulsive downdraft (see inset). Predicting Tuesday's price action is going to be a coin-toss at the moment, but to gauge sellers' strength nonetheless, we should monitor price action at whatever 'p' support becomes manifest on the next leg down.  This could happen overnight -- may have happened by the time you read this -- but that would not diminish the predictive value of price action at the Hidden Pivot midpoint.  If you want to see everything I've said in this tout in graphical form, you should check out the chart, since it summarizes the information presented above.

If you look at the weekly chart of the E-Mini S&P (see inset), you may get the feeling that it could take another week or two for this fatted-pig-of-a-market to roll over. Although last week's high fell inches shy of the 1664.25 target where I'd suggested getting short, the Sunday night sleazeballs have pushed the futures just north of it to a so-far high (as of around midnight EDT) of 1165.75. I cannot tell at the moment whether this is simply the best They can do for purposes of distribution, or whether it is in fact the beginning of a short-squeeze that will have bears on the run as the new week begins. Whatever the case, it doesn't necessarily mean this vehicle can't be shorted -- only that if you attempt it, you should do so via camouflage in order to mitigate the special risks of opposing the trend.  Please note, however, that from a Hidden Pivot perspective, the September contract could get as high as 1742.50 if it gets past the 1687.00 midpoint resistance this week. The pattern I've used to project that target is not ideal because the dinky little point 'A' is too far above the visually obvious one; however, both p and D would be short-able if they beget downside reactions with the kind of abc we like.

The night shift Dirtballs were keeping bears on the hook after Thursday's weak short squeeze, pushing the futures a tick above the regular-session high. They have not yet reached the 1656.75 midpoint resistance shown, however, and there was therefore an off-chance that the rally might not go much higher than that. If not, traders should expect a further push to 1664.25, a target that looks like it will work precisely enough to be shortable with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. If you do so via a straight offer, one contract should do it; if by camouflage, try four. If the order fills, you'll be on your own. For single-contract players, you'll need a move of at least 3.00 points in your favor before you deploy a stop-loss (presumably a trailing one, but you could also tie the position to an impulse leg-based stop on the 1- or 3-minute chart).

This rabid weasel could turn on us at any time, but for the now we should assume it's bound lower, to at least the 1605.50 target shown. It's not quite a done deal, however, since the intraday low occurred precisely at the 'p' midpoint pivot associated with our target.  If it's breached Thursday in the early going, that would affirm the target and make any feint north a tempting short.  Camouflageurs should look for the opportunity on charts of five-minute degree or less, taking the first signaled entry point if it looks subtle.

As you can see, yesterday's rally was just coitus interruptus, with a frustrating stop at Redfern that just missed going 'impulsive' on the 120-minute chart (and the hourly). Ordinarily that would be the  kiss of death for a minor bull cycle, but my hunch is that buyers will have another run at it unless some horrid piece of news darkens their state of mind on Wednesday. Traders looking for action and adventure may have to zoom down to the one-minute chart -- the only source of 'camouflage', and just faintly so -- to be found late Tuesday night.