Forecast

Apple looked like it was down for the count a week ago, but this week's rally has improved the odds that bulls will live to fight again. First, though, they'll need to exceed an external peak at 591.40 that is shown in the chart. If this happens without an intervening b-c pullback of 30 or more points, we'd rate the stock slightly less than an even-money bet to retest the all-time high. Calling the turns confidently is easier than you might think.  Want to learn how? Click here and get a $50 discount to the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on June 6-7.

The June Euro is overdue for a bounce now that it has dipped beneath January's 1.2645 low. That would have provided an opportunity to run stops and segue into a trampoline rally with relatively few bulls aboard.  So far, however, it hasn't happened, and the further bad news is that the 1.2720 midpoint support associated with a 'D' target at 1.1946 (!) has gotten crushed. Bottom line:  Even though 'everyone' is short the euro, it appears capable of falling much lower nonetheless.

Based on the hourly chart, I give bears a slight short-term edge in the duel of impulse legs that has played out during the last week.  However, if bulls are going to regain the offensive, we should see a tradable low occur at exactly 27.665, the p midpoint of the minor downtrend shown in the chart. You can bottom-fish two contracts there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but if you use 'camouflage' and are able to identify an entry opportunity with no more than $70 of risk per contract at entry, you should go for it.  If the long position survives the night (or perhaps morning) and at least two subscribers report having done the trade in the manner suggested, I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. In any case, half the position should be exited at the p midpoint of the small ABC pattern used to make entry. ________ UPDATE (May 28, 11:51 p.m. EDT): The futures have suspiciously failed to surpass any external highs in ultra-thin, post-holiday trading. If they should surprise with an upthrust, however, the first hidden resistance where we should look for a stall lies at 29.245 (60m, A=26.730 on 5/16).  A decisive breach would imply bulls are gaining sufficient strength -- a possible enticement to alert camouflageurs (as well as a shot-across-the-bow of venturesome bears).

The Gold Bugs Index has done all we asked of it and more, refreshing the bullish vitality of the hourly chart with a push past an 'external' peak recorded on May 4.  We can use a Hidden Pivot at 436.40 (see inset) as a minimum upside objective for the near term, but if HUI should pull back to the 414.37 midpoint associated with that number, Pivoteers can try bottom-fishing on the 5-minute chart or less. ______ UPDATE (May 30, 1:20 a.m. EDT):  From a recent high of 433.02, HUI has pulled back to within less than a point of the 414.37 midpoint flagged above. The implication is that this vehicle has bottomed and can be bought via camouflage. I suggest using the one-minute chart to reduce theoretical risk to a minimum.

Buyers head-butted structural resistance all day long, unable to muster the modest push it would have taken to reach the 1329.75 target given here yesterday.  They were getting second wind in after-hours trading, however, exploiting the absence of sellers that is typical for this time of day.  The target remains valid but holds no special value for us either for trading purposes or forecasting.  If it is exceeded by more than a few ticks, however, look for more upside to a somewhat higher Hidden Pivot at 1333.25. _______ UPDATE (7:49 a.m. EDT):  The futures topped precisely at 1329.75 overnight.  If you got short there on your own initiative, I'd suggest covering half the position now at 1323.25.  The pullback has somewhat exceeded a 1321.75 target defined by the pattern (on the 5-minute chart) a=1329.75, b=1324.25 (5:50 a.m.) and c=1327.25, for d=1321.75.  A new and very minor bearish pattern has developed since with a 1318.50 midpoint and a 1321.50 'd'.  This is small stuff, although the numbers are nonetheless tradable via camouflage -- or if bottom-fishing, via straight bids and three-tick stops.

Our large-scale bearish patterns for gold are alive and well after yesterday's aggressive test of the lows, but in the meantime the stage is set for upward impulsiveness and potential camouflage for buyers.  The attached chart shows no fewer than eight prior highs that could be wiped out by a small rally.  Of special importance is the one labelled at 1564.40:  if the futures should surpass it narrowly and then pull back, as shown by the hypothetical dotted line at right, our criteria for camouflage would be exquisitely fulfilled, and traders should buy the 'X' entry point with both hands, placing a stop under 'C' as shown.  If instead gold resumes its downtrend, the pivots and targets mentioned in yesterday's tout remain in effect, except for the midpoint at 1538.40 which was broken.  (Posted by Doug 'harry' McLagan)

To judge whether this rally is impulsive or merely corrective, let's watch to see how buyers handle resistance at 574.53 and 596.48, the respective midpoint and 'D' target of the pattern shown. Apple is our bellwether for the broad averages, since no major rally can occur without its leadership.

June Copper's breach yesterday of a midpoint support at 3.3963 implies more downside over the near term to 3.2605, its 'D' sibling. The futures can be shorted from current levels or bought with a tight stop-loss at the target, but if you attempt the former you should use the 3.3825 low shown in the chart for 'camouflage'.  This implies taking the first 'X' entry signal on a chart of 5-minute degree or less following an impulsive breach of 3.3825.  We've executed this trade many times in uptrending vehicles, but it's time we started practicing on southbound traffic. _______ Note: The corresponding target for the July contract is 3.2560, and for the external low, 3.2700. _______ UPDATE (July 7, 10:13 a.m. EDT):  The June contract has bounced reflexively off a recent low of 3.2380. It is bearish that the downside target was exceeded by nearly 2 cents, but bulls would take command of the short- to intermediate-term if they can muster a push exceeding May 21's 3.5380 peak.

The futures were bound for 1329.75 at day's end, assuming the short-squeeze begun from well below these level carries into Thursday. The 1319.25 midpoint is too close to yesterday's high to be worth much for 'camouflage', but if the futures get through both of these resistances, you can safely infer that bulls will remain in charge into week's end at least. My maximum upside objective for the near term (i.e., through Friday) is 1333.25.