GCJ13

At yesterday's lows, the futures kissed an important trendline we've been monitoring for quite some time. As noted in my latest commentary, a decisive breach would send the April contract down to at least 1553.30, a Hidden Pivot, or to 1487.00 if any lower.  (Note: This tout introduces the June chart, with equivalent supports at, respectively, 1551.90 and 1487.90). Camouflage tactics can give us an edge here trading speculatively from either side of the market, since in our way of looking at such things, fear and panic register only as bullish or bearish impulse legs.  I'll suggest looking for your opportunities on the 15-minute chart or less, although it might take a day or two to create some choice 'external' peaks to leverage. As things stand, on the hourly chart, yesterday's downdraft left a cragless wall with no good handholds. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar.

Gold could go either way, depending on how the Cyprus 'solution' is spun.  My hunch is that the outcome will be bearish for gold, with the implication that the April contract will fall to the 1553.30 target shown.  That's a midpoint HP support, and if it's decisively breached we could expect a further fall to its 'D' sibling at 1487.00.  Alternatively, the most constructive outcome for bulls over the near term would be an upthrust that exceeds 1619.70 (see inset), the point C high of the pattern yielding the downside targets given above.  As you can see, it would only take a small pop to get the April contract above that threshold.  Were that to occur, bulls would have the benefit of the doubt on any pullback, since it would be merely corrective -- and therefore buy-able -- on the intraday charts. _______ UPDATE (March 25, 4:25 a.m. EDT): Gold is up a big 10 cents at the moment, obviously relieved that 'only' depositors and bondholders will take a hit from the Cyprus affair. The action so far would seem to corroborate the bearish outlook detailed above.

This could be an important day for gold, since only a modest rally is needed to generate the first bullish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart in two months. Specifically, the futures would need to surpass the 1619.70 'external' peak that I've labeled.  If and when that happens, you should be prepared to zoom down to the 1- or 3-minute chart to get long on the first x signal that occurs.  The breakout could turn this vehicle a little wild for a while, but the purpose of the camo entry would be to take a small stake, then to lower its cost basis by taking a small profit on three-fourths of the initial position. Please let me know in the chat room if you fill this order, since I will establish tracking guidance if at least two traders indicate that they have gotten aboard. ________ UPDATE (March 21, 4:20 a.m.):  Buyers flunked the test, but perhaps they'll do better today after a good night's rest.

Gold is up just $4 Sunday night after an initial headless-chicken gyration of $18. I read the action as mildly bullish, an attempt by DaBoyz to accumulate some inventory before they grudgingly allow the news from Cyprus to push bullion at least somewhat higher. They are being cautious perhaps because gold will be punished badly if stocks should surprise by finishing the day unchanged-to-higher.

If you've been waiting patiently to trade the breakout from the excruciatingly tedious range that has contained gold for nearly two weeks, your opportunity came and went yesterday in a tad less than four seconds. That's how long it took DaBoyz to goose this vehicle (at 7 a.m. EST, when relatively few were watching) to a level $10 higher where, it is assumed, a new pattern of unendurable tedium can begin. Did the rally have any meaning? It did, perhaps, at the time it occurred. But a few hours later, the creation of a bearish impulse leg on the lesser charts turned the overall price action into a less meaningful 'duel' between bulls and bears.  Bulls still hold a slight edge for the near-term, since 'their' impulse leg was the more impressive.  However, to confirm a bullish outlook for the minor trend would require a bounce from the p midpoint of the corrective pattern shown. Camouflageurs can attempt bottom-fishing there, but please note that more downside to at least D=1585.00 will become likely if p is breached by more than a few ticks.  Pivoteers may want to note my obsessive use of a one-off A here, which is why I drilled all the way down to the two-minute chart in the first place. I did this because of the very sausage-y quality of the point B low. ______UPDATE (March 15, 1:121 a.m. EDT): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz,

Hidden Pivots aside, the futures look like they're itching to dip below the trendline yet again just to screw with traders' heads.  The April contract definitely knows that the trendline is there, which is to say the support is all-too-widely observed. This situation could reward 'camo' tactics nonetheless, since we have the means to leverage any ups and downs that happen to take the form of impulse legs. I'd suggest looking for them on the 30-minute chart or less, but doing the actual trade on the 1-   or the 3-minute in order to hold theoretical risk below 0.60 per contract.  FYI, on the weekly chart the trendline comes in around 1568.

Shortly before midnight, April Gold has pushed slightly past a minor target at 1579.40, so we'll infer that the larger pattern shown is in play.  Its target is 1590.60, with a 1579.70 midpoint that is this evening's so-far high. Assuming it's surpassed, camouflageurs can use any one of several peaks that emerge clearly on the lesser intraday charts to get long.  Note that it would take an additional push exceeding 1596.50 (a peak recorded last Thursday on the way down) to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of this chart. _______ UPDATE (8:17 p.m. EST): Zzzzzz.  Wake me if the tedium ever ends. So that we're not fooled into a state of attentiveness, let's stipulate that any rally worthy of our eyes exceed the required two prior peaks without a b-c pause on the hourly chart. Currently, it would take a print today at 1596.60. Alternatively, if the futures resume their familiar downward trek, skip the Hidden Pivot calculations and focus on the obvious structural support of the 1554 low recorded on January 20.  ______ UPDATE (March 6, 7:40 p.m. EST): On the 15-minute chart, gold impulsed above a 1584.40 peak from Tuesday, then promptly negated the bullishness of this by creating a minor,  bearish impulse leg.  Bulls hold a short-term edge nonetheless, and camo traders can pursue it via the pattern shown. It's subtle enough for our purposes because of the failure of the point 'B' high to surpass Tuesday's 1585.80 peak.

The futures were up as much as $12 Sunday night, but I've reproduced a daily chart that shows how technically insignificant this flurry of buying was.  A bigger picture shows gold still struggling for loft after last week's harrowing test of a long-term trendline.  The lack of a bounce so far suggests the trendline is going to be re-tested soon, so we should be alert to any possible 'camo' buying opportunities that crop up.  The trendline will come in at around 1567.00 this week, and any oscillations around that number should therefore be scrutinized for uptrending abc patterns that meet our entry criteria.

Getting aboard yesterday's explosive rally proved so difficult that higher prices over the near-term would seem very likely. The intraday high capped a strongly impulsive A-B rally, which means the pullback currently under way should be bought. But how? My suggestion is to take the first signaled 'x' entry (see inset), but to do so with a 'timed' buy-stop that will take you out of the position if it doesn't perform quickly (i.e., with 30-60 seconds).  If too many bulls start to weigh this vehicle down and it sinks to a second point 'C', look for your camouflage buying opportunity on the 15-minute chart or less.