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Gold has backed off a small precipice, rallying from within just 0.60 of a well-advertised Hidden Pivot support at 1155.00.  Look at the accompanying chart, however, and you'll see that bulls will have their work cut out for them if they want to restore a positive look to the lesser charts. For starters, any rally this week will need to take on external peak #1, and at least one peak "along the wall" (#2=1206.70).  I'll wait to see what Monday brings before I exhort you to get excited. (Note:  We'll move to the December contract starting tomorrow. The corresponding peaks lie, respectively, at 1207.50 and 1210.70.)

You have to drop down to the 10-minute chart to find the bullish impulse leg associated with yesterday's rally. It still projects to 1170.10, but the futures were unable to do any better than 1168.90 intraday despite the absence of structural resistance near the target.  Today the futures will need to touch 1175.10 to evince even a hint of genuine buying enthusiasm. _______ UPDATE (12:32 p.m. EDT):  I'll keep an open mind about this rally, but the key test that looms is quite clear in any case, since, in order to decisively end the correction from June's all-time highs, the futures will need to surpass -- without a b-c correction -- two peaks on the daily chart that lie, respectively, at 1203.90 (7/23) and 1218.80 (7/13).  Two bullish factors can be cited at this point: 1) the futures have turned from within just 0.60 cents of a legitimate Hidden Pivot support at 1155.00; and 2)  strong physical buying at lower levels -- this was mentioned in the chat room by a gold dealer -- seems to have repelled sellers.

Unless the futures pop above a look-to-the-left peak at 1168.40 today, they should be presumed on-track to achieve the 1140.10 Hidden Pivot we've been using as a correction target. As of Wednesday's regular-session close, however, a weak bounce from an 1155.00 pivot was seemingly limited by an HP resistance at 1166.50.  Please note that if and when 1140.10 is reached, it can be bottom-fished with as tight a stop-loss as you can handle. A camouflage entry is preferred, however, and Pivoteers should start looking for such an opportunity on the 3-minute chart when the August contract reaches 1142.50 on the way down. _______ UPDATE (10:05 aa.m. EDT):  This morning's rally was rubbish. The fact that it achieved the bullish benchmark we'd set only means that we set the bar too low.  This is not an obscure technical point, but rather something that can be confirmed by technician and non-technician alike simply by looking at the 60-minute chart.

I've drum-rolled the 1140.10 target in today's commentary, although it is old-hat for paid subscribers. The pattern that yields that price is sufficiently well-formed to suggest that it will be hard for the futures to avoid making a tradable turn from somewhere close to the pivot. (Also keep in mind the yesterday's low was close enough to a lesser support at 1155.00 to warrant our close attention.)  In any event, a camouflage long-entry is preferred over putting up a bid at, say, 1140.30 and tying it to a tight stop-loss of perhaps $1-$2. In practice, this will mean buy-stopping a point 'X' entry signal on one of the very lesser (i.e., 3-minute) charts.

The pattern highlighted in the chart continues to trumpet a target at 1140.10, a by-now familiar Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished aggressively with a stop-loss as tight as you can handle. Traders should be alert for a potentially tradable bounce from 1155.00 as well, since there's a lesser pattern with a 'd' target at that price.  That last number should be considered our minimum downside projection for the near term, although the bearish outlook is nothing that a thrust to an old and familiar look-to-the-left peak at 1222.90 wouldn't cure. _______ UPDATE (2:50 p.m. EDT): Gold plummeted $26 this morning, bottoming at 1156.90. While this came pretty close to out target, it was not quite close enough to trigger a bottom-fishing bid (which you should cancel in any event).  The target remains valid, but the so-far feeble bounce lends even more weight to the 1140.10 target.

The lesser charts were transformed into rubbish by last week's price action, but we can still use a vague midpoint support at 1182.80 to warn of the next bout of pseudo-weakness.  Its breach on a closing basis would portend possible additional downside over the near term to 1161.70 -- one downside target among many at this point.  Alternatively, an upthrust today touching 1207.00 would put bears mildly on-the-run.

Until and unless August gold rallies above 1218.8, the daily chart will point down to the 1155.0 and 1140.1 targets that are so well known to pivoteers.  A rally into the 30-dollar range between 1218.8 and 1248.8 will cancel those targets and turn the daily chart from bearish to neutral.  As things stand, only a rally above 1248.8 would be impulsive, and that would have to involve the 1175.1 low as our "A" point: there is no one-off "A" candidate yet.  On the 20-minute chart we have an active pattern beginning at A=1184 whose pullback from 1201.2 to 1192.6 was exactly half the length of the AB leg, rendering the midpoint useless.  The "D" target of 1209.8 might be a good short, with a stop no higher than about 1210.3.  In the meantime if C=1192.6 is surpassed, take another look at the chart and if the pattern still looks good, recalculate.  Traders should bear in mind the upcoming gold options expiration.  And don't forget to roll out of the August contract if you're in it.  Most go to December, skipping over the neglected child of COMEX gold contracts, October.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)

Assuming 1186.60 is not exceeded to the upside first, the minor downtrend shown in the  chart points to at least 1180.90, a midpoint support, or to 1175.20 if any lower. The latter number is just a dime above Tuesday's presumably supportive low, and so it has little value for trading. However, if it is breached by more than 60 cents, or if the futures close below it, that would strengthen the case for more downside to at least 1140.10, a Hidden Pivot target drum-rolled here earlier. ______ UPDATE (11:32 a.m. EDT) :  Saved -- for now -- by the midpoint pivot!  The futures fell to exactly 1180.70, two ticks from the support, then turned energetically higher.  The nearly $22 rally has given Gold some breathing room, but it would need to go $7 higher to qualify as impulsively bullish on the 30-minute chart.

Yesterday one-act performance provided yet another whoop-dee-doo rally that failed to push above the previous day's high. Our focus should therefore remain on the 1140.10 correction target -- or, alternatively, on the 1222.30 "look-to-the-left" peak where a rally would begin to look feisty. Best case today, based on the 15-minute chart, would be 1202.10, subject to a midpoint test at 1195.70.  Those numbers will remain valid as long as 1189.20 has not been exceeded to the downside.