Gold Miners ETF

Bulls have plenty more work to do if they want to turn Friday's strong rally into something meaningful. They had a running start from a strong overnight rally in physical that allowed GDX's handlers to open this vehicle on a large gap, and to rack up a stupendous gain of 5% on the day. The move was impulsive on the hourly chart, and that's encouraging. But the presumption of a bull market with a shot at  51.54 will depend on whether buyers can push this rally, without a visually significant pause, above a midpoint resistance at 44.31, and thence past an external peak at 43.60 recorded in mid-September. Here's a graph that shows it all. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 8:03 p.m.): Today's pop through p=40.89 portends more upside to D=42.31, although it could entail a struggle. We'll want to see GDX close for two consecutive day's above that Hidden Pivot, however, before we infer that more upside is likely to the 43.60 benchmark noted above. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 6:02 p.m.): A struggle indeed! Hardly seems worth the stress.

Although GDX dipped below the 37.26 downside target we'd been using, the 18-cent overshoot was not necessarily bearish. Even so, we should be prepared for another leg down. As a practical matter, I'd suggested taking our cue from the lesser charts, which in fact yielded up a mildly bullish impulse leg before the week ended. This is not sufficient reason to bet the ranch on a continuation of the rally, but we can at least give bulls the mild benefit of the doubt  as the new week begins. At the very least, they will need to push above an 'external' peak at 40.32 recorded last Tuesday if they are to earn more credibility. _______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:54 p.m.): Bottom-fish at p=37.33 with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide.  If it gets tagged, brace for more downside to as low as 34.60. Here's the chart.

I am leaving a GDX tout on the home page as a place-holder, having outsourced the trading of this vehicle to anyone in the chat room who is interested. It is too flaky and tedious to warrant the attention I'd need to give it in order to catch an important low or high. There have been none of either since early August, and although that could change without warning, monitoring the 15-minute chart to discern the instant of opportunity is more trouble than it's worth. That said, if the constipated correction pattern shown in the chart were to fall to the 37.64 target, I'd be an eager buyer there. Subscribers will have learned by now that moves in the opposite direction -- i.e., up --  have failed on a dozen occasions to produce the sustainable breakout we've long anticipated. Even so, a print at 44.28 should not be ignored, since it would signal the start of an upthrust to at least 47.80. ______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 5:03 p.m.): I'll lower the bar somewhat with this chart. If GDX can close for two consecutive days above p=43.35, that would be good evidence of an impending move to the 47.80 target. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20): Here's an updated chart to remind you of what could happen if sellers were to seize the advantage, however briefly.  The 37.64 target was first broached a week ago (see above) and remains viable, as does the upside target at 47.80. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 9:01 p.m.): Today's plunge stopped just shy of negating the bullish target at 47.80, but for the time being we'll focus on the unachieved downside target at 37.64, which seems more likely to be reached than the former at present. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 10:15 p.m.): The downdraft overshot the 37.64 target

The burden of proof rests with bulls for the time being, since the rally from Aug 11-18 failed to surpass a distinctive 'external' peak at 44.18 (see inset). If the corresponding ABC downtrend were to play out, a touch at 42.48 would trigger a 'mechanical' short with a 37.64 price objective.  This is blandly objective analysis, but I must tell you that I'm not thrilled with the prospect of shorting GDX, given the difficulties sellers have had pushing gold lower over the last two weeks. I'll recommend watching from the sidelines for a couple of days, although there are always ways to trade the lesser charts with risk well controlled. I have crowdsourced this task but will join in the discussion if the interest is there. ______ UPDATE (Sep 3, 10:27 p.m.) The paper-trade short has gone as much as $205 in-the-black and is still profitable, predicated on a 37.64 target. Two successively higher Friday closes would turn stochastic indicators on the weekly chart bullish. ______ UPDATE (Sep 5): The short position is showing a theoretical gain of around $650 on four round lots. I'll suggest a 41.81 stop-loss for now, o-c-o with an order to cover the position four cents above the 37.64 target. ______ UPDATE (Sep 9, 11:48 p.m.): My bad, since half of the short position should have been covered last week at p=40.87. The trade produced  a $244 theoretical profit nonetheless. I am taking a vacation from GDX for a while, since it is too much trouble to track -- the most annoying vehicle on the list. I will wade into the discussion nonetheless if subscribers show active interest in  this vehicle in the Trading Room.

My skepticism toward last Monday's spiky run-up was vindicated when GDX sold off for the remainder of the week. Although punitive, the reversal did no serious technical damage to the intraday charts. However, the failure of buyers to push above a 44.18 'external' peak recorded on August 10 has shifted the burden of proof to bulls. If they cannot mobilize early in the week, look for GDX to continue falling to 39.30, or possibly 37.69 if any lower. Alternatively, the chart pattern could be resolved in bulls' favor with a two-day close above 43.35. That is a midpoint resistance and it is shown in this chart. It's tied to a 47.80 target. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 8:07 p.m. ET): A three-day, $2.47 plunge looks to have reversed today from a low 29 cents above the 39.30 target above.  You'll be on your own managing the risk if you bought near the bottom, but it will likely be with the wind at your back because of the well-time entry. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 10:14 p.m.): Several traders reported getting in near the low, so I am establishing a tracking position of 400 shares @ 39.70. Use a 40.76 stop-loss today, o-c-o with a closing offer on 200 shares at 42.03. ______ UPDATE (Aug 27, 10:33 p.m.): The tracking position produced a $678 gain on an extremely wild day.  Half was exited in the opening minutes at 42.34, where  GDX opened, and the rest was stopped out for an additional gain of $212.  We held no position at the close, nor do I suggest jumping in again at this time.

GDX's plunge deepened on Friday, but subscribers were able to sidestep the so-far 8% dive using a longstanding rally target at 45.71 that caught the tip of last week's spike within 7 cents. We should view this reversal with more than the usual amount of caution, since the high failed by 19 cents to surpass a small but technically significant 'external' peak at 45.96 recorded back in early 2013. To be sure, it would take a print down at 40.20 to even hint of trouble on the daily chart, and we will treat this weakness in the meantime as a buying opportunity. But our bids will be less aggressive than usual, and we may even attempt to get short if a compelling opportunity should arise.  Stay tuned meanwhile to the chat room, where crowdsourcing in this vehicle has served us well. _______ UPDATE (Aug 11, 8:35 p.m. ET): You don't have to be a chartist to see that GDX has farther to fall before it can find good traction. This chart shows two logical places for the correction to bottom: at 36.84, re[resenting a 0.618 retracement of the rally begun from 31.32  in mid-June; and 34.93, equating to a 75% correction.  There  will be opportunities to trade both sides of the market on the way down, so stay tuned to the chat room for real-time, crowdsourced guidance. ______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 7:0 p.m.): The escape from last week's bog has been more decisive than I'd expected, but I'm not entirely persuaded it's for keeps. Let's see if the stock can impale the 43.17 midpoint pivot shown in this chart. If so, it'll be presumptively on its way to D=44.39. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 6:19 p.m.): An extremely nasty spike, as gratuitous as they come, failed by 30 cents to hit

It's been a long slog to the 45.71 target since GDX tripped a 'buy' signal back in mid-June at 34.84. I crowd-sourced the trading of the stock because it became too much of a headache to do so myself, especially during the grinding, two-month consolidation begun in late April. In retrospect, the rally could have been positioned as a buy-and-hold, since the pullbacks that punctuated the steep July uptrend were not too painful in comparison to the gains racked up from one peak to the next.  We'll have to see what happens after 45.71 is achieved, but, as always, a decisive push past it on initial contact would be bullish. Regardless, if you've held a long position all the way up, I'd suggesting lightening up, possibly with some just-in-the-money covered writes. Above 45.71, the weekly chart allows for more progress to as high as 51.72. ______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 6:14 p.m.): Numerous subscribers reported using my longstanding rally target at 45.71 to exit long positions or lighten up within pennies of what could turn out to be an important top. They sidestepped considerable pain in the process, since GDX subsequently fell $1.76 to 44.02 before staging a modest bounce into the close.  I don't expect bulls to come roaring back, at least not right away, but if they do, use this 48.55 target as a lodestar, and thence 51.72 (as noted above).

GDX looks like a very good bet to achieve the 45.71 target shown in the chart. If it reaches this Hidden Pivot resistance, that would represent a gain of about 19% from current levels.  The impulse leg from 23 to 27 in April/May was sufficiently steep to imply that we could use any pullback from a Hidden Pivot level to the one beneath it as a 'mechanical' buying opportunity. This seems unlikely at the moment, however, since bulls appear to be consolidating above the red line, a midpoint support at 38.47. We may be able to use a smaller AB segment, the one that occurred  between June 26 and July 9, to fashion a relatively low-risk entry opportunity, and that's where we can focus intraday. ______ UPDATE (July 15, 9:16 p.m.): Several subscribers have jumped in after pondering my bullish target, but don't expect an easy ride. I'd suggest staying closely in touch in the chat room to help manage position risk. ______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 7:10 p.m.): A secondary Hidden Pivot resistance at 42.09 lies just inches way, but GDX will have to push decisively past it to lock up a further move to D=45.71. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Jul 29, 8:15 p.m.): A pullback to p2=42.09 would offer a decent bet, stop 40.88, for 'mechanical' buyers. I mentioned this in the Trading Room today and it will remain viable unless 44.12 is exceeded to the upside. ______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 2:57 p.m.): Only one person reported doing the mechanical traded detailed above, so I have not established a tracking position. I will paper-trade this one nonetheless, lowering the stop-loss to 40.20. just beneath a key low made last week.

Although GDX has not fallen to the green line to put the 30.97 target in play (see inset), I've drawn the pattern with a bearish bias just in case. I am not down on this vehicle at the moment, but a little bit of weakness could set up an attractive buying opportunity at 32.92, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot. I will continue nevertheless to solicit crowdsourced ideas for getting long, and possibly even building a long-term position. But if we are going to attempt a buy-and-hold from the get-go, it will require an optimal entry point with clear opportunities to take partial profits along the way. _____ UPDATE (June 1, 7:13 p.m. EDT): A pullback to p at 2:00 p.m. generated an appealing 'mechanical' buy signal at 34.88.  The subsequent rally appears bound for at least 35.54. No one has mentioned GDX in the Trading Room since Friday, implying there is very little interest in this vehicle at the moment. It is still a crowdsource project. ______ UPDATE (June 2, 5:35 p.m.): Two Hidden Pivot levels I mentioned in the Trading Room this morning look promising for bottom-fishing: 33.65 and, especially, 31.77 (corrected).  Here's the chart. I've suggested using rABC or 'camouflage' to get aboard, but a limit bid and tight stop-loss will do if easy entries are your preference.  ______ UPDATE (June 3, 8:45 p.m.): I'd suggest a light touch if you plan to bottom-fish this cinder block at 31.77 -- a 12-cent stop-loss at most.  If it's hit, we can try again 'counterintuitively' beneath the 31.31 low recorded on May 1. Tune to the Trading Room for rABC guidance in real time. ______ UPDATE (June 8, 9:56 p.m.): GDX tripped a picture-perfect 'mechanical' buy at 32.39, but it went unnoticed in the Trading Room. I'll leave this vehicle