Rick's Picks » Goldman Sachs

Countdown to ‘World-Shaking News’ from Europe

Rick Ackerman — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:01:58 +0000

[I'm running this commentary for a second day because of the high-minded discussion it has elicited. Please be aware that an announcement next week concerning the latest bailout for Greece would probably generate a short-squeeze rally on Wall Street, much as it has a dozen times before. Be that as it may, a potentially important target at 1353.00 that I'd flagged here for the E-Mini S&Ps has held thus far, the futures having spiked in the opening hour yesterday to...1352.75. In other trading notes, a rally target for Bank of America shares was bullishly exceeded, although two more important ones remain: 13085 for the Dow -- a longstanding objective of ours; and 119.91 for Goldman Sachs. Taken together, the prospect of simultaneous tops in so many bellwethers suggests that an important trend change could be imminent. Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick's Picks if you'd like to keep abreast of further developments in real time. RA]

The financial world is on pins and needles as “investors” await Europe’s latest, quasi-momentous decision on the fate of Greece. The Greeks themselves, no fools, were a step ahead of the politicians and bankers, rioting in the streets. Many of them have probably imbibed enough austerity to last a lifetime. Keep tightening one’s belt a notch at a time and eventually you’re left with two bloody torso halves. Not that the bankers would mind the mess as long as they get paid. So what, actually is at stake in this latest chapter of the eurobailoutpalooza? The rescue package under discussion amounts to a piddling €130 billion, and we can’t see how it’s going to make much of a difference. Even if it’s only intended to buy a little time, a sum as meager as that may not see the Eurocrisis through the weekend, much less through 2012. For perspective, Flint, Michigan’s unfunded retirement and health benefits total about three times as much. Is Flint in worse shape than Greece? Hard to say, although the close proximity of such charming resorts as Corfu and Rhodos, as opposed to beautiful downtown Detroit, would seem to tip the quality-of-life numbers in favor of the Greeks, even the down-and-out day-trippers. (...)
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© Rick Ackerman and www.rickackerman.com, 2012. | 38 comments |

$GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:116.29)

Rick Ackerman — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:36:53 +0000

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Dubious Payroll Numbers Ignite Wall Street

Rick Ackerman — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:26:27 +0000

As last week ended, one might have believed Wall Street investors had just about everything wrong. Stocks were up sharply on bullish payroll news that flatly contradicted something every American knows – i.e., that the Great Recession is still very much with us; T-bonds were getting whacked on the flimsy assumption that the economy is picking up strength; and gold and silver were under attack because, well, because all was right with the world. Even the hacks and scribblers who bring us the news did their bit to feed Friday’s feel-good binge. For one, there was nary a discouraging word on the Web’s main news pages about Greece and its slow-motion bankruptcy – only a story about how Europeans were working diligently to protect the homeless from a cold snap. And the left-tilting L.A. Times, thinking wishfully, weighed in with the most fatuous story of the day: an analysis piece saying that the payroll numbers could prove to be a turning point in Obama’s reelection year — the day when he shifted from slight underdog to favorite. (...)
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GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:116.97)

Rick Ackerman — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 02:52:12 +0000

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GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:108.86)

Rick Ackerman — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 06:38:42 +0000

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GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:108.12)

Rick Ackerman — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 04:40:17 +0000

Stay tuned if you’re as keen to short this brick as I am. We are taking a patient approach — and a good thing, too, since the merciless squeeze that Goldman’s deft handlers have applied to the scrota of bears is starting to produce some real pain. Indeed, yesterday’s opening-bar spike refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the 120-minute chart. It also furthered the prospect of our getting long while we wait for the stock to make a targeted top suitable for shorting aggressively. Want to join us for the ride? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:104.32)

Rick Ackerman — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 05:29:13 +0000

Hey, I’ve got a hot tip: Run the other way when some tipster wants to share a piece of juicy insider information with you. What would you have done if he’d told you earlier in the week that the notoriously well-connected banking firm was about to report horrendous earnings for the fourth quarter? You’d have jumped on some put options, right? Maybe a dozen or two March 95s, which were selling for around 3.50 with the stock loitering suspiciously near $98 on Tuesday. Guess what: The tipster got it exactly right. Goldman’s earnings could hardly have been much worse — down 58 percent for Q4. As for the March 95 puts, does an instant double to $7.00 sound about right? In fact, they traded for as little as 92 cents yesterday, having shed three-quarters of their value in just a few short hours as the stock soared almost $10 from the previous day’s low.

This breathtakingly counterintuitive outcome is one of the sleaziest bear traps I’ve seen sprung, and although it’s ultimately going to undercut the stock’s credibility as it makes its way down to, oh, $10 a share years from now, for the time being, Tuesday’s short-squeeze will provide exactly the kind of buoyancy that its handlers — a bunch of goniffs that I wouldn’t trust alone with my cat — had sought in order to unload shares on widows and pensioners. Sometime before this swindle runs its course over the next couple of weeks, we’ll want to lay in an inventory of way-out-of-the-money puts so that we can later attempt to spread off their risk when the stock eventually plummets like a brick on ginned-up “good” news. Want to join us for the ride? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:94.43)

Rick Ackerman — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 09:26:24 +0000

Perhaps my “hula number” below $30 will be realized after all? At the moment, Goldman is fighting to stay above a 97.28 Hidden Pivot midpoint whose destruction would imply further slippage to as low as…the zero axis! Now, I’m not saying the company is about to drop dead — only that, from a technical standpoint, the stock’s oscillations around the 97.28 midpoint these last few weeks corroborates the potentially fatally bearish coordinates shown in the chart. It would be nice to think the company everyone loves to hate is indeed in a death dive, but we’ll await further evidence in the form of further progress toward an intermediate-term target at 63.09.

Goldman’s Death Dive?

Rick Ackerman — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 05:32:30 +0000

Although we shouldn’t get our hopes too high, technical evidence presented in today’s tout for Goldman Sachs suggests that the stock could be on its way to oblivion. A further fall of $31 from current levels seems plausible in any case, so let’s stay on top of the stock for now, the better to leverage the move.

About that hula dance…

Rick Ackerman — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:41:16 +0000

Actually, I was kind of looking forward to it after last winter’s postponement. But take a gander at today’s chart and analysis for the shares of Goldman Sachs. My worst-case number is technically impossible, as you will surmise, but a fall below $30 is hardly unthinkable.