Google

We’ll set aside a “buy” down around 469, since the low of Google’s $60 June swoon appears to have missed the target by a few dollars. Now, looking at the lesser charts, the stock looks northbound to at least 505.50, the ‘D’ target of the pattern shown.  The stock would have to do a little better, however, topping June 17’s 506.69 peak, to develop thrust for next week.

Google probably has a further six percent to fall before it will have a chance to find traction, since the minimum downside target implied on the daily chart is 469.54 (see inset).  The midpoint sibling of that number is 507.63, so any rally to that number should be used as an opportunity to get short (although Tuesday’s thrust to 506.99 may have been it.)  If the target doesn’t contain the selling, the stock would be facing more possible downside to 434.98, the target of another pattern on the daily chart.  What makes the bearish case so compelling here is that neither of two important  ’B’ coordinates was ’sausage’.

The stock looks like it’s setting up for a 30-point dive to a Hidden Pivot support at 479.84.  The so-far low of a correction from 643 that is now entering its fourth month is 513.40, just 62 cents from the Hidden Pivot midpoint at 512.78.  ’Camouflage’ shorts are advised, but keep in mind that you’ll need to be on charts of 15-minute degree or less in order to nail the minor swings with the to-the-penny-accuracy that successful ‘camo’ trading requires. In any event, we’ll look to botom-fish if and when GOOG reaches the target. _______ UPDATE:  We’ll put this trade aside for now, since the stock is currently rising, evidently disinclined to breach the midpoint support.

You’ve got to admire Google for its pluck.  Rather than cede even a dime’s worth of advertising business to Facebook merely because Facebook is so aggressive and clever, Google is about to add “social” functionality to its search engine.  I’d like to think Google was encouraged to play hardball by the fact that Facebook had partnered with always-behind-the-curve Microsoft to develop customer information beneficial to Ballmer’s Bing search engine. Anyway, who do you want to bet on? For my part, I’ve extrapolated the most bullish target I can from the hourly chart — 610.12, a Hidden Pivot that can serve as a minimum upside objective target for the short- to intermediate-term. Consider it a lock-up if and when the stock closes for two consecutive days above its sibling midpoint, 591.57.  (Note:  One more minor resistance to monitor lies at 600.52.) Pivoteers may notice that I’ve treated the March 16-18 bend in the A-B impulse leg as non-existent. My justification for this is that it occurred before the rally had exceeded any external peaks.

If Google were to fall to 602.23, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, I’d be tempted to bid there aggressively with a stop-loss as tight as 601.99.  A decline of such magnitude is not likely to happen today, especially since it would be bucking a forecast that calls for at least slightly higher highs for index futures.  However, the target itself is compelling, and it will remain valid as long as 622.49 is not exceeded to the upside. ______ UPDATE (12:39 p.m. EST):  GOOG ignored the pivot, falling instead to within 3 cents of the visually obvious support of Monday’s dramatic 601.23 low.  Our theoretical loss on the trade was $24 per round lot, plus commissions.  The too-obvious support aside, my hunch is that the breach of the pivot has ordained a further fall to its ‘d’ sibling, 581.97.

Google has labored mightily to hold above the May 6 low at 460, but it looks like the stock will need to come down a bit more, to at least 453.90, to make a durable bottom.  We haven’t traded the stock in a while, but we’ll want to buy some shares if and when the stock falls to the target. It’s possible to nail the swings within about 20 cents when we are trading off the 15-minute chart, but in this case I’ve used 180-minute bars to project the swing low.  Under the circumstances, I’ve set an alert so that we can try to use camouflage if and when this bottom-fishing opportunity materializes. ______ UPDATE:  Cancel the order, since Google is on a flight of fancy that projects to at least 500.75.

With yesterday’s 500.47 low, Google is closing on a 488.33 target, a Hidden Pivot that would max out the theoretical downside on the daily chart.  I don’t trust this stock to give us a precise low for bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss, but my expectations are high for a tradable turn from somewhere very close to our number. If you’re hunting for camouflage, I’d jump onto the 3-minute bars if and when Google comes down to 490.50.  I’ve set a screen alert so that if the opportunity presents itself, we can try to catch this one together during a real-time webinar.  I haven’t played around with Google this way before, but I suspect the stock can be easily cornered and trapped if we chase it down on the very lesser charts as it approaches a crucial turning point. ______ UPDATE:  With the Dow in a thousand-point freefall, Google bottomed at $460, down $50. However, the subsequent surreal, $50 bounce occurred too quickly to act upon, much less discuss in a webinar.