Copper’s feisty rebound from the February 5 low has surpassed an important prior high on the daily chart and looks set to continue. Action at a midpoint pivot of 3.1432, near current levels, should be telling. A pullback from there could provide camouflage that enables traders to get long with limited risk. Let’s use a move above the prior high of 3.1540, just above the midpoint pivot, as our signal that the sibling D target of of 3.2525 is within reach. ______ UPDATE (08:10 a.m. EST, Feb 17): The midpoint at 3.1432 indeed proved to be the key, but pivoteers needed to use it creatively by buying it on the return trip from above. This would have worked perfectly, as copper has since rallied by more than twelve cents a pound, worth as much as $2,677 per contract. The 3.2525 target was reached and surpassed, and we notice that the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level for the large decline beginning January 7, which came in at 3.264, was also exceeded today.
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March Copper
If March Copper makes a lower low today on the daily chart, it will quickly approach a midpoint pivot at 2.938 that could be a turning point for a very oversold market. Traders should bid 2.940 with a stop at 2.932. If the stop is hit, the futures should be presumed bound for a ‘D’ target at 2.732, a level last seen four months ago. (Posted by Harry) ______ UPDATE (9:40 a.m. EST): Commodities are getting schmeissed this morning, and Copper has overshot its mark, stopping us out for a $200 loss. The futures now appear bound for a minimum 2.9120.
Copper has pulled back beneath a key midpoint cited here earlier, so boarding for a ride up to as high as 3.0695 will be trickier. I’ll make this catch-as-catch can for experienced pivoteers only, since I cannot stay closely enough on top of this contract to provide a camouflage for entering. The chart shows one way in which it might be attempted immediately, bottom-fishing at the c-d midpoint of a retracement pattern.
The futures blew past a 2.9048 midpoint resistance so easily that we should infer that the 3.0695 Hidden Pivot target with which it is associated is very likely to be achieved. A pullback to the midpoint should be viewed as a buying opportunity, but I’d wait for the turn higher, assuming it comes, so that you can board on a “camouflaged” signal.
