NEM

NQM20 – June E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:9667.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free

I sometimes joke that virtually every trading vehicle, in every time frame, whether trending up or down, reverses from p2, the secondary pivot, virtually every time. Or so it would seem. I was never really a p2 kind of guy, but my mentor, Ira Tunik, used it so often, and persuaded so many Rick's Picks subscribers that it was important, that I eventually started to pay attention. That's when I began to see that it actually does repel trends almost as consistently as my beloved 'p' midpoint Hidden Pivot. It has also become clearer recently that some of the most successful traders in the room have been using p2 to set up rABC trades that deliver as consistently as a loose slot machine in a Reno bust-out joint. All of which is intended to call attention to the chart shown in the inset, a weekly graph of the E-Mini Nasdaq futures. This lunatic-powered vehicle comprises an invincible core of no-decision stocks that institutional holders would never even consider selling. That is why it is spitting fire at the moment, just inches from record highs. Notice as well that Wednesday's peak, which put a new high on the bounce from March's Mindanao abyss, occurred almost precisely at p2=9585. I wouldn't want to put ideas in your head, but there are worse places to attempt getting short.  Just sayin'. We can use puts in $NDX, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely ideas -- or make sure you've enabled 'Updates' on your account page. The caveat here is that buyers shredded the 8600.00 midpoint pivot the first time they encountered it on the way up. This made it likely that D=10,571 will be reached. As you can see, it sits well above the current record high at  9763.00.  I can't

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:25.56)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

It's been a while since I looked in on Newmont, and I was surprised at what I found. Although price action in gold futures has been disappointing, if not to say depressing, NEM looks eager to bound higher on the very first sign that 'physical' has turned buoyant. Indeed, it is extremely difficult to see the sideways scuddle of the last month as anything but consolidation. Moreover, the pattern is particularly encouraging because pullbacks have been relatively shallow even as Comex gold has come down from 1308 in late January to a recent low of 1132.  Hidden Pivot analysis suggests that the next big rally could push the stock to the 28.62 target shown -- an implied 16% gain from current levels. The move would become an odds-on bet if and when the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 25.99 is exceeded by more than 20 cents, but we'll wait for it to happen before we break out the bubbly. ______ UPDATE (February 22, 8:15 p.m. EST): The stock took off like a shot Friday, with several subscribers reporting getting aboard ahead of the move. Since I'd advised no entry strategy, however, you're on your own. Some profit-taking would have been in order -- and still is -- since NEM was up as much as $2 intraday at its 26.38 high.

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:27.28)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Like numerous bullion vehicles that we track and trade, Newmont has disappointed by failing to surpass on the first try a distinctive external peak to the left on the intraday charts -- in this case a mildly challenging external one at 27.47 (see inset). The shortfall would be remedied by a modest 55-cent rally from current levels, but even then we'd be left to infer that buyers are more timid than if they'd easily surmounted the peak. Assuming they are at least game to try again, we should see the corrective abc pattern cut short and reverse from somewhere near the p midpoint. Otherwise, look for a further correction down to 'd' that would of course be buy-able with a tight stop (or via camouflage). Please note that the 'failed' rally is impulsive nonetheless, albeit less than impressive because it did not surpass 27.47.  _______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EDT):  The p=26.83 midpoint support in fact held when Newmont gapped sharply higher on Monday morning. The stock had gone no lower on Friday than 26.86 after manifesting an a-b correction leg.  Now I'd suggest using the 27.89 target shown as a new minimum upside objective for the (very) near-term.

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:30.19)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Newmont's explosive burst yesterday was the most promising impulse leg we've seen in a while -- a nearly 12% price gain in mere hours. Buyers pulled back on the close, presumably to keep the stock from running away before they load up. The midpoint pivot at 30.79 (red line) will pose a key test, but if it's touched, a fresh impulse leg would become manifest on the hourly chart (see inset). Notice that that would put the stock just above the look-to-the-left peak at 30.77 recorded June 20 on the way down.  A b-c pullback from just above it could set up a nice buying opportunity. However, because it could be perceived by others as a breakout, buyers could rush in quickly.  To leverage this set-up, assuming it occurs as I've described it, I'd suggest zooming down to the 1-min chart and buy-stopping your way aboard at the 'x' entry point of the small pattern.

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:40.01)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Newmont has gained nearly 7% since Thursday, but don't get your hopes too high that it will somehow avoid diving to the 34.68 target we've been using. Notice how buyers chickened out at the peak of yesterday's would-be moon shot.  One more nickel would have gotten them past the 40.68 'external' peak that I've labeled, refreshing the bullish impulsiveness of the lesser charts. Alas, now they are in a duel with bears, and although the burden of proof rests with the latter at the  moment, the bulls have ceded much of their edge.

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:39.12)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

There doesn't seem to be much interest in this stock in the chat room, but for the record and nonetheless, its daily chart has just generated a buy signal at 41.04.  The rally paused yesterday just 3 cents above the 41.83 midpoint pivot, but camo traders shouldn't have much difficulty catching the next leg to 42.56, its D sibling. _______ UPDATE (March 31, 10:56 p.m. EDT):  Traders in fact would have faced quite a challenge using camouflage to get aboard on Thursday, since the best such opportunity that arose would have yielded little better than a scratched trade (see inset, a new chart). My suggestion is to keep trying, but on the 3-minute chart rather than the '5' I've displayed.  The 42.56 target still obtains as a minimum rally objective. _______ UPDATE (April 1, 2:47 a.m. EDT):  The lesser charts have gone bearishly impulsive, testing our patience. I'd suggest zooming out to the 10-minute chart now if you're looking for the bullish turn, since there are plenty of 'external' hooks for a trade.  _______ UPDATE (April 3, 2:06 a.m. EDT): Yesterday's kamikaze dive turned a mildly promising daily chart into a duel between bulls and bears (see inset, a fresh chart). Despite the severity of the drop, the two forces look evenly matched at this point, suggesting there is likely to be bargain-hunting near March's 38.55 low that will keep the stock from falling apart straightaway. _______ UPDATE (April 4, 10:56 p.m. EDT): Sellers schmeissed the structural support at 38.55, implying they're intent on pushing the stock even lower. Because the 38.34 midpoint support of the pattern shown was exceeded by 27 cents, we should expect NEM to fall to at least 34.68, its 'D' sibling, at least.  I'll nonetheless recommend bottom-fishing with a 34.71 bid for 400 shares, stop

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:41.46)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The camo set-up shown came up during yesterday's impromptu session online, flagged by a subscriber. Notice how the peak of the rally exceeded external peak #1 but not the 'marquee high at 41.90.  The power and promise of the thrust will be masked to most other traders, but not to us. Accordingly, you should plan on getting long at the still-uncreated x using a chart of lesser degree -- perhaps the 5-minute chart. The steepness of the rally may draw in a few more bulls than we should prefer, possibly generating a second point C, and that is why I'm suggesting a camouflage entry strategy.  _______ UPDATE (1:50 p.m. EDT):  I've just posted the following update in the chat room: On the hourly chart, the buy signal we were looking for was tripped at 41.55. Since entry was to have been accomplished on a chart of lesser degree, however, we still hold no position officially. The 'camo' opportunity is visible on the 2-minute chart in the form of a subtle external peak at 41.51 (11:08 a.m. EDT) that we can try to leverage.

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:44.04)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Coincident downside targets that lie at, respectively, 42.72 and 42.52 suggest there could be an edge for us in bottom-fishing there.  Accordingly, I'll recommend buying four January 42 calls if and when the stock hits 42.62.  They would be a good deal for around 1.60, but whatever you pay, be ready to stop yourself out if the stock trades 42.39 or lower. Practically speaking, and assuming you stay alert to the stop-loss, your risk on this one would be around $30-$40 plus commissions.  If you'd prefer to simplify the trade by using stock alone, bid 42.55 for 400 shares, stop 42.41. If either order fills, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide further guidance. _______ UPDATE (December 10, 2:07 a.m. EST): The presumptive C-D leg is taking its sweet old time to develop, but the trade suggested above remains viable nonetheless, so we'll continue to watch and wait.  Please note, though, that a 45.45 print today would tip the short-term outlook in bulls' favor. _______ UPDATE (December 11, 2:16 a.m. EST): For reasons that I explained during yesterday's impromptu session online, I'm not a big believer in this short-squeeze rally (see inset, a new chart).  We should remain open to the possibility of an impulsive rally on the hourly chart nonetheless, but yesterday's surge did not quite achieve that threshold, and so the targets below $43 should still be held in mind. _______ UPDATE (December 24, 11:50 a.m. EST): The stock has taken a ferocious bounce from 42.96, denying us the easy entry opportunity we'd sought (although camouflageurs would have had opportunities a-plenty on the one-minute chart).  The move was bullishly impulsive. However, because I don't trust it, we'll do nothing further for now.

NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:44.94)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A casual glance at Newmont's chart will tell you the stock is headed lower, although it could conceivably surprise by reversing from the 45.26 midpoint shown.  Lest we get caught napping if the stocks turns when "no one" expects it, let's bid 45.28, stop 45.21, for 200 shares.  Please note that any slippage beneath the stop would augur more of the same over the near term, down to as low as 42.72. ________ UPDATE (10:57 a.m. EST): No surprise this time. The stock opened on a gap well below 45.26, presumably bound for 42.72, and so we did nothing. (Although, using some direct access platforms,  it's possible that a buy order and sell-stop would have been executed simultaneously at 44.90, the opening price).