NYBOT Dollar Index

Two compelling trends, both of them nicely visible on the 240-minute chart (see inset), imply that DXY is bound for a minimum 80.10 once it surpasses a lesser ‘D’ target at 79.17.  So far, the index has stalled within two ticks of that number, a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, but once above it the run-up to 80.10 would become an odds-on bet.  Lest we be caught without an even more ambitious target if buyers should run amok, here it is: 81.49 (A=74.68, B=78.86, C=77.31). At that point, the dollar will have rallied 12% from its early-May lows, but it would need to reach 87.50 for the 20 percenter that would qualify as a bull market.

Is the dollar consolidating for a big rally?  A few people who posted in the forum today seem to think so, as do a number of gurus whom I respect.  I’ll wait for further evidence myself, but on the weekly chart (see inset), the greenback only appears to be consolidating because it has been flirting with the seemingly major and presumptively impregnable bottom carved out in 2008.  Granted, 70 is the Maginot Line for central banks intent on keeping the financial system from unraveling with the dollar’s collapse. Still, we shouldn’t assume that just because 70 is visually prepossessing on the charts, and psychologically crucial in the minds of so many financiers, that it cannot be broken. Whatever the case, our best bet for correctly predicting the next big move is to closely monitor the ABC downtrend highlighted in the chart. We should pay particular attention to the 72.42 midpoint support shown, since, if it is exceeded to the downside, facilitating a test of the 2008 lows, that would be a strong sign that the long-term downtrend has further to go.  Want to learn how to do Hidden Pivot Analysis yourself, and to kiss your guru good-bye? Click here for information about the upcoming webinar in October.