Priceline

The midpoint pivot, shown as a red line at 1160.44, has been central to PCLN's behavior over the last two sessions, corroborating the 1180.03 target.  The pivot was exceeded by a sufficient margin on Monday to imply that the target is likely to be reached. However, I wouldn't suggest a 'mechanical' entry at 1160.44, since it carries initial, theoretical risk of more than $6. Instead, you should look to get long via 'camouflage' on charts of 5-minute degree or less. At the moment, that would require a pullback from just above 1162.84, a tiny but well-formed external peak that can be found on the 5-minute chart at 1:45 p.m. EST.

So much for the modest rally target I put out last week. Friday's short-squeeze panic shredded it in the throes of a $62 effusion that put the 1221.26 target shown in play. Night owls have a shot at exploiting the implied $15 opportunity, but I wouldn't suggest this trade for beginners, since the price spasms from one second to the next can be daunting even during regular hours. As if around 9:40 p.m., the stock was glowering with menace on a shallow accumulation pattern mere pennies above Friday's highs. DaBoyz took the stock down $14 on the opening bar, the better to rip off widows and pensioners and dry up selling, so you'll have them in your corner if you find yourself rooting for the stock to go higher. _______ UPDATE (November 3, 9:05 p.m. EST):  A bull-trap opening bar topped at 1229.00, but because no subscribers reported getting long for the ride, or short off the top, I have not established a tracking position. The decisive overshoot of the rally target suggests bulls will be back once the correction off Monday's high has run its course. ______ UPDATE (November 4, 7:53 a.m.): Wowie! Investors -- ever prescient and supposedly all-knowing/all-seeing in their collective wisdom --  have repriced this stock by nearly $100 overnight. Index futures, down a few points at the moment, seem not to care -- and so, one supposes, neither should we.

I put out a slew of ambitious rally targets for the "lunatic stocks" in the chat room yesterday, most of which are still in play (see my 13:57 post for the precise numbers).  Priceline, however, has exceeded its 1152.15 target in after-hours trading Tuesday, implying that an even higher target from a larger pattern is now in play. Specifically, I am forecasting a move to at least 1188.29, and suggesting that any buying be done near the 1148.25 midpoint pivot shown. You should use the 'camouflage' technique to initiate the trade, since a 'mechanical entry' at 1148.82 would dictate a stop-loss of about $13. Note as well that my rally pattern uses coordinates taken from a 24-hour chart that includes after-hours action. _______ UPDATE (October 30, 7:37 a.m.): Scale back the target to 1172.01, since price action centered on its sibling midpoint at 1140.69 has confirmed the target itself (60-minute, A=1074.34 on 10/20). The implied long, and the short, will be catch-as-catch-can, but I wouldn't recommend betting the farm in any event.

It would appear that Priceline shares are in for yet more weeks of winter, metaphorically speaking.  As you can see, the stock has crushed a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1184.05, implying it will now grope its way down to at least 1038.20 in search of traction. If so, don't expect the broad averages to go blithely in the opposite direction, since they depend on the buoyancy of the 'lunatic stocks' to gain loft.  Priceline is a lunatic-sector bellwether, as good an example as you will find of the kind of manipulation that fund managers routinely practice to extract dollars effortlessly from the stock market's gratuitous ups and downs.

The stock has fallen $27 since I first flagged a 1224.45 correction target a week ago. If you were short for any of it, reverse the position near the target and use your gains to cushion a stop-loss for longs initiated there. I'll also suggest -- to all -- that you position for a possible 'Jackpot Trade' with a laid-back bid for Sep 5 1250 calls if they should trade for under 1.00 today (Thursday) with PCLN 1224.45 or higher.  This order should be considered VERY time-sensitive, since the calls will be fading fast if they look like non-performers in the last two hours of the day. I'll be in the chat room to provide timely guidance in any event. ______ UPDATE (Sep 4, 10:25 p.m. EDT):  The stock continued to look like hell, although some subscribers ended the day retaining a call position that has a chance of performing if PCLN opens on Friday with its well-accustomed head-fake. ______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:25 p.m.): The stock opened on a gap lower and continued to sink, rendering our calls instantly worthless.

If the lunatic stocks are about to lead the broad averages higher, we should see Priceline bounce sharply from the 1259.21 midpoint support shown. Yesterday's low came within 38 cents of this Hidden Pivot -- close enough for the target to be considered fulfilled. Any further slippage, however, and its 'D' sibling at 1224.45 will be in play. This would imply that the stock market itself is likely to go nowhere, or possibly down, in the days ahead.  The stock would become shortable on a decisive breach of the red line (i.e., a breach of perhaps 0.30-0.60 cents), but if you plan on getting short for the potential $35 ride south, you should initiate the trade on the 5-minute chart or less, using a corrective pattern that would subject you to no more risk theoretically than perhaps 0.15 per share. If the trade works and you are still short when 1224.45 is reached or closely approached, reverse the position and buy at the target aggressively using a tight stop. 

PCLN will need to bounce from the 1275.65 midpoint pivot shown to reassure bulls that the selloff from Monday's high isn't about to get legs.  The pivot can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tights 0.20, but brace for more downside to D=1264.51 if it gets tagged. Like AAPL, this stock has failed to reach an important target with its most recent thrust.  The target lies at 1358.18, but PCLN went no higher than 1329.90.  This is missing by a mile, and we should pay close attention to any weakness that follows in its wake -- particularly to minor abcd downtrends that exceed their 'd' targets, since that would be warning that the selling is picking up strength.

Subscribers still hold 16 Aug 16 1340/50/60 butterfly spreads with a cost basis of zero, since we were unable to unload them at our price when the stock took a maniacal leap to 1307 on Monday.  Yesterday's selloff was a setback for the spread, and the stock will need to rebound sharply this week to fatten our position for an easy sale at 2.00 or more.  Even so, we can comfortably hold it till expiration, since no loss is possible.  As you can see, the bounce off yesterday's low occurred almost precisely at the midpoint pivot of the large, bullish pattern we are playing. This is an encouraging sign, but if the stock needs to test the low for a couple more days, it would greatly lengthen the odds of a payoff. _______ UPDATE (10:50 p.m.):  Although price action has been distributive, I wouldn't give up on the butterfly, since our bet is on the kind of wildly insane, out-of-the-blue behavior that energizes the stock so much of the time. _______ UPDATE (August 7, 9:01): The stock went nicely against the trend yesterday, but it won't be able to buck a second consecutive down day in the broad averages.  At this point, our butterfly is a market bet, so keep your fingers crossed for a big rally out-of-the-blue. ______ UPDATE (August 11, 12:01 a.m. ): There'll be no problem holding the position down-to-the-wire if need be, since it was acquired by subscribers at zero cost.  The intraday charts yield a rally target at 1338.62 most immediately, so it will take a very powerful burst -- one capable of blowing past this Hidden Pivot -- to give our spread a decent shot at finishing in-the-money.  Stranger things have happened, so stick with it. _______ UPDATE (August 13, 2:32 a.m.): Exit the

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I'd advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We'll do nothing further for now, but I'd suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We'll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I've reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:46 p.m. EDT): Yesterday another subscriber reported legging into 'free' butterfly spreads as suggested. Keep trying for at least one more day if you haven't yet acquired a stake, since the spread will remain cheap as long as PCLN doesn't blast off.  ______ UPDATE (August 3, 6:10 p.m.): Several subscribers reported success legging into the 'free' butterfly spread as suggested. The position is riskless at this point, but last week's selloff has lengthened odds of a big payoff. Priceline will have to show some giddyap in the days ahead to give the spread a fighting chance. _______ UPDATE (August 4, 1:03 p.m.):  With PCLN caught in a vicious short-squeeze, our butterfly is currently BID around 0.90, meaning the worst possible exit right now would produce a position profit for us -- based on 16