September

This bottom-fishing recommendation in September Yen uses a proprietary set-up that I call a 'mechanical' trade. The implication is that the entry price and subsequent risk-management are determined automatically, as follows: 1) bid at the green line (x=0.68936) following a pullback from between p (the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 0.69683) and p2 (the secondary Hidden Pivot, 0.70429). If the move goes your way, take off half the position on a rally back up to p=0.69683, and another 25% at p2=0.70429. The remaining 25% can be held for at swing at the fence. Since the initial stop-loss just below c=0.68190 implies entry risk of nearly $1000 per contract, I suggest using a small-pattern trigger, with a commensurately small stop-loss, to initiate the trade when x is hit on the pullback. Generally, however, I will recommend these trades only when I think the odds are favorable for cashing out on a move of at least one level (i.e., from x to p). _______ UPDATE (Jul 4):  Although the futures made a high above p2=0.70429 last week, my recommendation is unchanged: buy a pullback to the green line (x=0.68936) using a small-interval trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jul 12, 12:46 a.m.): The September contract lies within a hair of stopping out the position detailed above for a $934 loss. If this happens, I will publish a new trade shortly thereafter so that we can  move on. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14): A flaccid move lower stopped out the position.

I keep crude on the front page only because it is the largest commodity market in the world. That said, the world's largest commodity market has been doing little but jacking off for more than a year, demonstrating that the main purpose of global markets is...to jack off.  What a joke!  This would be an embarrassment to all humanity, but for the fact that nothing could embarrass a civilization in which a hit single with the title 'Wet-Assed Pussy' could briefly  become the most listened-to pop 'song' in the world of so-called music. The woman responsible for it, Cardi B, probably regards the poobahs at Disney, the SEC and on Capitol Hill as peers -- and not without good reason, since they are all American success stories of one sort or another. The foregoing aside, crude prices cannot be suppressed indefinitely in a geopolitical world that lives, from one day to the next, under a deep purple storm cloud.  The traders who have been doing the jacking off in both directions must be close to spent by now, so don't be surprised if the intrepid dirtballs who control this monster spring a nasty trap on scalpers who can't wait to short yet another rinse-and-repeat peak in the low $80s.

September Crude loitered for four days at a 76.26 Hidden Pivot correction target identified here earlier, then crushed it with a running dive that followed a vicious head-fake. The subsequent low occurred almost precisely at the too-obvious trendline shown. Since every oil trader in the galaxy will have used this feature to bottom-fish, it is unlikely to work precisely. However, sellers are going to have difficulty turning such a compelling 'structural' support to mush, so look for oil's so-far 12% slide to end hereabouts. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 12:35 p.m.): The slide did not end at the support. Is oil perhaps discounting the possibility that the stock market's plunge has set in motion an economic collapse?

September Silver became a 'mechanical' short in theory with last week's run-up to the green line (x=24.403), but it looked too revved up as the week ended for the trade to be enticing. My gut feeling is that the futures will hit the red line (p=23.33) first, even if they eventually stop out the short, but we'll look for low-risk opportunities to test this theory rather than trade with a bias. If bears lose this round, that could signal a run-up to as high as 28.48 over the next 5-7 weeks (daily, A= 20.42 o 3-10).

I seldom give a second thought to head-and-shoulders patterns, since they are everywhere one seeks them.  The one shown is so well-formed, however, that it's worth pondering. Putting the pattern aside and looking at the chart intuitively, there is obviously a lot of weight sitting on bulls from distribution that took a month to carve the ominous picture shown. With the average price of a gallon of regular gas threatening to push above $4, we should cross our fingers and hope the pattern works its magic, sending crude down to the low $70s and denying refiners a windfall blowoff to $5/gal.

What a mess! Even so, the pattern shown in the chart meets our criteria for accuracy and reliability in subtle ways, so let's assume the cycle of hard-selling begun from 25.47 a month ago is headed down to at least D=21.18. In the meantime, we should be alert to shorting opportunities if last week's so-far weak bounce gets legs. A run-up to p=23.33 would trigger a relatively risky 'mechanical' short, stop 24.04, but there may easier ways to do it, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely guidance. ______ UPDATE (Aug 21, 9:29 a.m.): A subscriber reported shorting silver based on the above. My response n the chat room, for your guidance, was as follows:  "My target missed the top of the nasty spike by 0.03, but I hadn't expected it to be reached so dramatically. Is your stop at 24.04, the number in the tout? That implies 72 cents of theoretical entry risk. However, you could have cut that to 11 cents using an rABC set-up that triggered at 23.25, with 23.15 as the threshold for partial-profit-taking (15m, a=23.07 on 8/17." D=22.93).  _______ UPDATE (2:49 p.m.): The futures bottomed an inch from the 22.93 target I provided in the chat room, generating a profit of as much as $2,000 per contract for shorts from 34.33. Shorts covered near 22.93, then reversed and turned into long positions, could have made an additional $2,000 per contract, since the bounce took Sep Silver all the way back up to the intraday high. All the swings were gratuitous and orchestrated by thieves, but as I hope as has been demonstrated, such movement is perfectly predictable and easily tradeable.

The chart projects a correction to as low as 21.39 of the big bull move begun in March from 20.42. Since the initial downside penetration of p=23.43 earlier this month was not especially dramatic, however, we should be alert to a possibly significant upturn without D having been reached.  There is a chance it began Friday, since the bounce from an intraday low began at a voodoo number that should have jumped out at advanced Pivoteers. If the futures relapse as the week begins, look here and in the chat room for an update that could be tradeable.

With gasoline prices in the East pushing well above $4, consumers could use some help from the 84.66 'midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance' shown in the chart. It held against Friday's surge, but it looks like a slender reed for beleaguered consumers to lean on. A decisive push past it would imply more upside to p2=94.88, at which point we may become nostalgic for $4 gas. A bright spot for investors is that because the stock market has come completely decoupled from reality, the crushing economic burden of higher energy prices has barely registered on Wall Street's dim, fevered brain. ______ UPDATE (Aug 18): The bounce into Friday's close looked menacing from the perspective of bears hoping the top a week ago at the 84.66 midpoint Hidden would endure. A decisive push past it would put the 94.88 'secondary' pivot mentioned above in play, and possibly even D=105.10. Even a run-up to the lower target would be ruinous for motorists already challenged by soaring gas prices.

Last week's thrust above an important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 80.61 was a menacing sign, since prices at the pump were already in a steep climb since dipping very briefly below $3 a gallon in some states just weeks ago. I bought 93 octane as cheap as $2.89 within the last two weeks in North Carolina but was surprised to pay $3.99 in a South Florida Costco this morning.  If Friday's close for September crude above 80.61 portends more upside to D=98.82, we will likely see $5 gas. Taxifornia has already experienced much higher prices than that, but it would be unfamiliar to motorists in the East outside of New York and some other blue states that have increasingly been penalizing gas-fueled vehicles.