September

SIU23 – September Silver (Last:24.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

September Silver became a 'mechanical' short in theory with last week's run-up to the green line (x=24.403), but it looked too revved up as the week ended for the trade to be enticing. My gut feeling is that the futures will hit the red line (p=23.33) first, even if they eventually stop out the short, but we'll look for low-risk opportunities to test this theory rather than trade with a bias. If bears lose this round, that could signal a run-up to as high as 28.48 over the next 5-7 weeks (daily, A= 20.42 o 3-10).

CLV23 – October Crude (Last:80.05)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

I seldom give a second thought to head-and-shoulders patterns, since they are everywhere one seeks them.  The one shown is so well-formed, however, that it's worth pondering. Putting the pattern aside and looking at the chart intuitively, there is obviously a lot of weight sitting on bulls from distribution that took a month to carve the ominous picture shown. With the average price of a gallon of regular gas threatening to push above $4, we should cross our fingers and hope the pattern works its magic, sending crude down to the low $70s and denying refiners a windfall blowoff to $5/gal.

SIU23 – September Silver (Last:23.35)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

What a mess! Even so, the pattern shown in the chart meets our criteria for accuracy and reliability in subtle ways, so let's assume the cycle of hard-selling begun from 25.47 a month ago is headed down to at least D=21.18. In the meantime, we should be alert to shorting opportunities if last week's so-far weak bounce gets legs. A run-up to p=23.33 would trigger a relatively risky 'mechanical' short, stop 24.04, but there may easier ways to do it, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely guidance. ______ UPDATE (Aug 21, 9:29 a.m.): A subscriber reported shorting silver based on the above. My response n the chat room, for your guidance, was as follows:  "My target missed the top of the nasty spike by 0.03, but I hadn't expected it to be reached so dramatically. Is your stop at 24.04, the number in the tout? That implies 72 cents of theoretical entry risk. However, you could have cut that to 11 cents using an rABC set-up that triggered at 23.25, with 23.15 as the threshold for partial-profit-taking (15m, a=23.07 on 8/17." D=22.93).  _______ UPDATE (2:49 p.m.): The futures bottomed an inch from the 22.93 target I provided in the chat room, generating a profit of as much as $2,000 per contract for shorts from 34.33. Shorts covered near 22.93, then reversed and turned into long positions, could have made an additional $2,000 per contract, since the bounce took Sep Silver all the way back up to the intraday high. All the swings were gratuitous and orchestrated by thieves, but as I hope as has been demonstrated, such movement is perfectly predictable and easily tradeable.

SIU23 – September Silver (Last:22.74)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The chart projects a correction to as low as 21.39 of the big bull move begun in March from 20.42. Since the initial downside penetration of p=23.43 earlier this month was not especially dramatic, however, we should be alert to a possibly significant upturn without D having been reached.  There is a chance it began Friday, since the bounce from an intraday low began at a voodoo number that should have jumped out at advanced Pivoteers. If the futures relapse as the week begins, look here and in the chat room for an update that could be tradeable.

CLU23 – September Crude (Last:81.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

With gasoline prices in the East pushing well above $4, consumers could use some help from the 84.66 'midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance' shown in the chart. It held against Friday's surge, but it looks like a slender reed for beleaguered consumers to lean on. A decisive push past it would imply more upside to p2=94.88, at which point we may become nostalgic for $4 gas. A bright spot for investors is that because the stock market has come completely decoupled from reality, the crushing economic burden of higher energy prices has barely registered on Wall Street's dim, fevered brain. ______ UPDATE (Aug 18): The bounce into Friday's close looked menacing from the perspective of bears hoping the top a week ago at the 84.66 midpoint Hidden would endure. A decisive push past it would put the 94.88 'secondary' pivot mentioned above in play, and possibly even D=105.10. Even a run-up to the lower target would be ruinous for motorists already challenged by soaring gas prices.

CLU23 – September Crude (Last:82.82)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Last week's thrust above an important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 80.61 was a menacing sign, since prices at the pump were already in a steep climb since dipping very briefly below $3 a gallon in some states just weeks ago. I bought 93 octane as cheap as $2.89 within the last two weeks in North Carolina but was surprised to pay $3.99 in a South Florida Costco this morning.  If Friday's close for September crude above 80.61 portends more upside to D=98.82, we will likely see $5 gas. Taxifornia has already experienced much higher prices than that, but it would be unfamiliar to motorists in the East outside of New York and some other blue states that have increasingly been penalizing gas-fueled vehicles.

SIU23 – September Silver (Last:23.94)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Although silver has grazed over a nearly $12 range for the last two years, it prefers to hang out near the $24 midpoint. To be sure, it is in a bull market with the potential to reach $36 or higher. But it seems in no hurry to get there, and it will likely remain an accumulation opportunity between 17 and 23 for the foreseeable future. A breakout would be signaled at  27.36, a tick above an important 'external' peak recorded by the September contract in March 2022.  More immediately, a reverse pattern promises good odds for bottom-fishing at 22.98. That is the 'd' target of a= 24.83 on June 9. _______ UPDATE (Aug 8, 9:49 p.m.): Sellers bombed the 22.98 Hidden Pivot support, implying Sep Silver is likely to grope its way down to June's 22.34 low in search of support.

CLU23 – September Crude (Last:80.58)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Just when it looked like prices at the pump were going to ease below $3, this nasty little sumbitch poked its snout above the transom and was threatening to take out some important peaks recorded since last November. The most important of them, an 83.59 high notched on November 7, seems likely to give way if a 'voodoo number' at 82.52 is easily penetrated to the upside. Perhaps the increase in energy costs this would produce is the reason why the stock market looks ripe for a fall? We may be better equipped to answer the question by week's end if not sooner. ______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 9:10 p.m.): The futures have plummeted after ratcheting up to within an inch of a voodoo number that got some play among advanced Pivoteers on Monday. More is needed to bring relief at the pump, but it's not clear yet whether sellers have the guts to bring crude quotes down into the low-$70s.

SIU23 – September Silver (Last:23.61)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

I rarely display a chart with two patterns, but in this case, both have been working well enough to provide a handhold for trades in either direction. The 24.22 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the smaller, downtrending pattern caught a tradeable low on Friday almost precisely and would signal a 'mechanical' short if the futures were to touch x=24.85 (stop 25.48), as the new week begins. There's $12,600 0f theoretical entry risk on four contracts, so this one is intended only for subscribers who have mastered 'camo' set-ups. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 7:05 a.m.): Only one subscriber mentioned having done the trade, so I did not establish a tracking position. The short from the green line is still 'live', however, and has produced a profit so far of $3150 for each contract covered at the red line. Typically, I advise covering half of any position there, or of implementing an 'impulsive' stop-loss if just a single contract is held.

SIU23 – September Silver (Last:24.29)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A short from the red line (p=25.45) could have been worth as much as $14,000 by week's end on four contracts, although no one mentioned having done the trade, so I didn't track it. Now, draw a reverse pattern on the weekly chart using A=24.83 on 6/9, and you'll see why p=24.228 can be used as a minimum downside projection for the near term (and 22.98 as a worst case). It can also be used to bottom-fish with a 'reverse-pattern' trigger. If silver surprises and closes above last week's 24.47 high, that would put the 28.56 target in play. _____  UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:20 p.m.): Silver did in fact plunge today to within an inch of the 24.22 midpoint Hidden Pivot where I'd suggested bottom-fishing (see above), but I won't provide tracking guidance unless I hear from at least two subscribers who traded on my guidance.