SLW

We hold two June 40 calls with a 1.17 cost basis after imputing to them a partial profit taken on two more at 1.37.  Use a 1.17 stop-loss for the two that remain (or multiple thereof), but make the order one-cancels-the-other with an offer to short two June 42 calls for 1.47, good-till-canceled.  If successful, we’ll hold two vertical spreads for a net credit of $30 each.  In theory, that means the worst we could do on the trade after commissions is make about $40; and the best, if SLW is trading above 40 come June expiration, is make $460. The stock’s immediate fate is not predictable, at least by me, but it’ll need to hit 36.41 for bulls to regain control. Otherwise, SLW will remain vulnerable to more slippage down to as low as 33.44. ______ UPDATE (2:29 p.m. EST):  Lower the short offer for two June 42 calls (or multiple thereof)  to 1.17 or better, good through Friday.  Would you like to learn how we use the ‘camouflage’ trading technique to significantly reduce entry risk? Click here for details.

‘Dueling impulse legs’ cede an edge to bears at the moment, although the most recent impulse leg (see inset) suggests night owls will enjoy better odds if they trade from the long side. The pattern shown projects to 39.52, and it should be regarded as no worse than an even-odds bet because the p sibling at 38.94 with which it is associated has already been exceeded to the upside by a decisive 6 cents. Since action at the opening bell cannot be precisely predicted, I won’t offer explicit instructions for buying the stock. However, the 38.59 ‘D’ target of the small corrective pattern shown is where I’d look if SLW opens quietly Friday morning.  Note that the downtrend halted on Thursday at the precise Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern. _______ UPDATE (10:39 a.m. EST): The stock opened very unquietly on a gap slightly below 38.55, so we did nothing. SLW continued to head lower, breaching the ‘p’ midpoint of a pattern projecting as low as 36.42. This is bad news, but the outlook would improve if the stock can push past a small ‘external’ peak at 38.43 in the next day or two. _______ UPDATE (March 5, 11:35 a.m. EST): The stock has crashed the support, apparently bound for a worst-case Hidden Pivot target at 34.53.  The correction will be a 15 percenter at that point — a good time to establish a long position.  Accordingly, I’ll recommend bidding for four June 40 calls with the stock 34.60 or lower.  ______ A FURTHER UPDATE (March 6, 9:58 a.m. EST): We bought four June 40 calls for 1.27 just now when the stock plunged to within a penny of the 34.53 Hidden Pivot I’d flagged as a worst-case low. In fact, there is now a new worse-case possibility at 34.07, but we won’t worry about it until we see how the bounce from the 34.53 pivot plays out.  Even if the stock were to fall to 34.07, I estimate that the calls we own will shed only about 17 cents of value, so let’s plan on holding them come hell or high water. _______ TRADE UPDATE (2:16 p.m. EST):  We exited half the calls at 1.37, leaving us two (or a multiple thereof) with a profit-adjusted cost-basis of 1.17.  For now, tie the calls to a stop-loss at 1.17. That will effectively make this a break-even trade at worst if SLW should get dragged lower by a collapsing stock market. Also: Please note that trade alerts will be posted first in the chat room, then via e-mail alert. The lag could be critical to getting in or out of positions in timely fashion, so I’d suggest staying tuned  to the chat room if you’ve opened a position based on my explicit recommendation, as above.