TSLA

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:1567)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

You've got to wonder how many of the institutional geniuses who are buying TSLA now at $15oo a share shunned it back in March at $350 and had a dozen reasons for doing so. No question, the outlook for sales has improved dramatically. But it could not possibly have improved enough to justify the apparent consolidation that seems to be occurring near $1500. How do we know portfolio managers have decided Tesla shares offer good value at these levels? Simply because after creating a monstrous spike to $1800 a week ago, the stock sold off for all of one day; then, instead of gyrating wildly to get its bearings, it simply leveled off at $1500 as though every fund guy in the world had a bid there for the duration. Earnings will be out this week, but it seems DaBoyz have made their decision no matter what the data say. If the nuttiness produces a new record high, we'll be ready to short it. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:30): The imminent impalement of shorts on earnings news due out Wednesday seems so likely that perhaps I should be more cautious about pushing out the 1914.64 target shown in this chart. But I won't, since it's probably not worth the bother. The company is certain to report a profit because it will qualify them for inclusion in the S&P 500. Although it's usually disappointing when companies report making money because it tethers their shares to an earnings multiple, Tesla is probably going to soar anyway because it is not bound by the usual rules. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 6:59 p.m.): The stock was unusually subdued, perhaps because traders have already anticipated to death a fourth straight profitable quarter and Tesla's induction into the S&P 500.

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:1546)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free

Tesla's explosive rally last week stalled almost precisely at the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting to 1803.69. Investors and thrill-seekers focused on the round number $2000 may find the shortfall disappointing, but the target looks like  a decent bet to cap one of the most insane short squeezes in the crazy history of the stock market. All three levels  -- p, p2 and D -- will be in play for purposes of getting aboard, or possible getting short, so stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely updates. Newcomers in particular should pay close attention to the way 'mechanical' trades help us tame and exploit the most rabid beasts. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:51): I hadn't imagined TSLA would reach my seemingly ambitious target in a single day, but it did. The fleeting top just 0.4%  from my target gave way to a stunning reversal that is going to leave bulls not just cautious, but fearful.  Look for weak, distributive action this week, turning increasingly urgent by week's end. ______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:49 p.m. EDT): Bulls stood their ground, settling into a tight range that looked more like accumulation than distribution. The implication is that they will soon be ready to romp again, and to challenge Monday's absurd, bull-trap peak without losing more than a step or two.  Crazy! ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:47 p.m.): Bulls were not as impressive as I'd expected, possibly because there was too much buying interest at the open to take the stock down and deplete sellers. Look for sloppy price action, possibly mutating into distribution, over the next day or two. 

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:1389)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Short-covering last week effortlessly shredded an 1142 Hidden Pivot resistance on the weekly chart, telegraphing the blow-off that has followed. It will likely terminate at or near the 1267.89 target shown, and I would therefore suggest using that Hidden Pivot as a minimum upside projection for now. It is sufficiently clear and compelling for us to infer that a move past it is unlikely if not impossible. When big-picture targets are exceeded as has occurred here, the logical and practical alternative is to derive a new target from an extension of a smaller pattern. Subscribers who bought Sep 18 560/600/640 put butterfly spreads near 1142 for $1.00 or less should consider buying more of them at 1267 at a different level. They should be pegged this time to the 800 strike, September expiration.  Consider wider spreads, such as the 18 Sept 700/800/900 put butterfly, which can currently be acquired for under $3.50 and has the potential to widen to $100. (Note: This would entail selling two 800 puts and buying one 700 put and a 900 put for a net debit of $3.50 or less. This trade is recommended only for experienced option traders. If you leg into it, buy the 900/800 spread first, 1:1, with TSLA near 1267; then short the 800/700 spread after the stock falls from 1267, as we expect. Obviously, there is always a chance TSLA is on its way to $1500 or higher.)_______ UPDATE (July 6, 5:54 a.m. EDT): All bets are off. The stock has gapped up through the 1267 pivot in pre-dawn trading, headed perhaps to a minimum 1337, or even 1479. These targets can be found by sliding 'A' down to 468.39 on April 3. _______ UPDATE (July 7, 8:25 p.m.): Tesla failed to open on a gap for a change, but it

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:1119.63)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free

I haven't featured TSLA in a while, but the promising pattern shown in the chart was too fetching to ignore. It suggests not only that a $106 rally lies just ahead, but that a short initiated when the stock is between the two targets, respectively at 1096.89 and 1106.46 will enjoy favorable odds. I'll provide a more detailed instruction at the appropriate time,  but the gist of it will be to buy put options priced at $1 or less with about two weeks left on them. Stay tuned to the Trading Room and this tout if you're interested. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 8:16 a.m. EDT): For what's it's worth, making money with call options when I forecast a 106-point rally ten days ago was MUCH harder than it sounds. If for instance you had bought July 3 1100 calls then for around $16, you'd be up a whopping when the stock was peaking yesterday at 1088. The short play remains viable nevertheless if and when the stock climbs into the specified range.  ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 10:19 p.m.): Subscribers used the 1142.51 Hidden Pivot target shown in this chart to get short via the Sep 18 560/600/640 put butterfly spread. Variations on this strategy were reported, and different prices, but for your further guidance, I'll track four spreads @ 1.00. This price was anomalously low, but do-able nonetheless. It's possible the 600-strike puts shorted in this gambit were abnormally juicy because retail customers were buying them as a longshot bet.  Puts at the 700 strike were similarly overpriced. TSLA may get second wind a pop above D, but I doubt it will get very far. _______ UPDATE (Jul 2, 10:00 a.m.): Love those bearish butterflies!  When we put them on with the stock $90 lower than this morning's high, using an 1142 target,

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:569.43)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free

This one's just for fun and educational purposes: shorting a stock that has wreaked more damage on bears than any squeeze I can recall. Ever. The chart shows a well defined rally target at precisely 510.14, and it is there that we will attempt to intercept the stock, at least on paper. I'll suggest an rABC set-up with the following coordinates on the 60-minute chart: A=435.31 (12/27 at 10:30 a.m. EST); B= 402.08 (12/31); and C= yet to be determined. C will of course migrate higher and become a moving target as TSLA ascends toward 510.14, but I would suggest pulling the trigger on a relapse to X only after TSLA has traded 508.90 [note: corrected from 497.60] or higher. In this case we'll assume a second attempt, and even a third, if the position gets stopped out.  On the first try, cover 100% of it at p. But if another opportunity trade materializes (irrespective of whether the first has produced a profit or loss), take half off at p, 25% at p2, and the last 25% at D.  Initial theoretical risk for these trades would be about $3300 on 400 shares. The potential gain on try #1 is $3300; and on try 2, about $6000. If the position is stopped out for a profit on #1 and the second try gets to D, the gain would be around $9300. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:14 p.m. EST): The rally sputtered out at 498.49, denying us a chance to get short at the promising Hidden Pivot resistance identified above. We'll back away for now. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 15:55 p.m.): TSLA's pop through so clear a target as 510.14 borders on psychotic. No rABC trade has triggered, but I am no longer recommending the short. Note: When a stock blows past

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:209.22)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Is it okay for Tesla bulls to come out of their bomb shelters?  Perhaps, but only with caution. The stock bounced sharply on Monday from a low that was close to the 193.31 Hidden Pivot support we were using as a minimum downside target. On the hourly chart (inset) the selloff looks to have reversed an inch from where we'd expected. But I hesitate to declare the target achieved, since the tiny-looking gap was actually $5.45. Given the sinewy delicacy of the pattern itself, we might have anticipated a tradeable bounce from within no more than 15-20 cents of the target. In addition, downside gaps at the red line (p) and the secondary pivot (p2) imply that sellers are not yet spent. Bottom line, I'll suggest keeping your enthusiasm in check until such time as TSLA exceeds 213.30 -- or better yet, closes above that number. It is equal to an 'external' peak recorded Friday on the way down, and a move above it would generate a robust impulse leg on the lesser charts. _______ UPDATE (May 22, 4:07 p.m.): Down nearly $12 midway into Wednesday's session, TSLA bounced from within a nickel of the 193.31 target. Unfortunately, it subsequently slipped lower and closed 62 cents beneath it. Any further slippage would send the stock down to 188.81, a minor Hidden Pivot support, but a close beneath it would put a 170.21 target in play. ______ UPDATE: (Jun 6, 11:03 p.m.): The slimeballs who rule TSLA shares have stepped back to let short covering drive the stock higher over the last three days, since this could be the best opportunity they will have to unload stock on widows and pensioners before it tanks below $100. The daily chart is now bullishly impulsive, but we'll need to see how the second

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:211.07)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Is Tesla down for the count?  The latest blow was this headline Wednesday in the LA Times: "Ugly Turns Uglier as a Tesla Filing Shows Results Were Goosed by a Surge in Credits". Indeed, had first quarter earnings not been augmented by $200 million in regulatory credits, the company's $702 million loss would have been even worse. The fact that Musk didn't mention this adjustment in a recent analyst call, and that it was buried in the company's 10-Q filing with the SEC earlier this week, is bound to make analysts and investors skittish. From a technical standpoint, the stock must hold above the 230.75 Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart or it will sink to 180, or 23%,  in search of traction. For our part, we wish Musk only good fortune. The company's predicament appears quite serious, and Tesla could go into a death spiral if creditors decide to get tough. Regardless, unlike some web sites that have stalked Tesla's every move, and who have questioned whether the company's sales figures can be trusted, I stop well short of inferring bad faith on Musk's part, let alone criminality. This is mainly because, unlike cloud-app twaddlers like Uber's Travis Kalanick and other digital-world whizzes who happen to be in favor on Wall Street, Musk has produced an actual thing that is a marvel of beauty and performance. Now he is doing whatever it takes to survive -- and Tesla most surely deserves to survive no matter what accounting tricks it takes to keep the financiers on board. We should all wish him success, since, if Tesla flames out, a hundred years might pass before we see another entrepreneur with Musk's energy, bold imagination and can-do spirit. _______ UPDATE (May 2, 9:50 p.m.): The stock has taken a sharp bounce

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:273.31)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

TSLA got sacked last week on news that Model 3 deliveries fell far short of expectations. Incredibly, the stock's 12% plunge did not negate a 'counterintuitive' buy signal tripped a week ago on the hourly chart at 286.19. It's tied to a minimum upside projection of 317.91 and a maximum of 381.36. I expect these upside targets to be negated when TSLA falls beneath 254.46. However, that wouldn't necessarily portend disaster, since a Hidden Pivot support at 242.44 is there to provide at least a temporary backstop. The stock has been swinging violently within a huge range for two years, and this seems likely to continue -- with a long-term bullish bias, unless the company goes bankrupt. The fact the TSLA hasn't crashed is testimony to Musk's entrepreneurship and charisma. The regulators may not like the guy, but in the business world even when he makes big mistakes he is a man to be reckoned with._______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 11:30 p.m.): The stock feels heavy. If it falls and a midpoint pivot at 264.71 gives way, that would be telegraphing more downside most immediately to as low as 248.25. ________ UPDATE (Apr 15, 10:16  p.m.): No change in the downside targets given above, but today's swoon has made a further rally to X=272.93 a 'mechanical' short, stop 281.17.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 16, 6:24 p.m.): The short triggered.  If you did the trade, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position if warranted. In any event, half should be covered on a fall to 264.71.

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:285.86)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free

Having narrowly missed a longstanding downside target at 251.28 at the low of its most recent swoon, TSLA would trip a 'counterintuitive' buy signal if it hits the green line at 286.19. That would make p=317.91 our minimum upside target, with a shot at 381.36 if Tesla's peerless hype machine turns news temporarily in the firm's favor. Not bad for a company with enough problems to make a bankruptcy scenario seem at least plausible. Whatever the case against Tesla, its compromised delivery system and its apparent decline in quality control, these factors could soon take a back seat to the shenanigans and spin control that have always moved the stock, often wildly. _____ UPDATE (Apr 2, 4:10 p.m.): The stock has touched 286.19, putting a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 317.91 in play as a minimum upside target.  It would become an odds-on bet to be reached if TSLA can exceed a 295.39 'external' peak recorded on March 14. _______ UPDATE (APR 4, 11:07 a.m.): Today's plunge on news that Q1 deliveries of Model 3 fell well shy of expectations has hit $260, a $61 loss. The bullish 'CI' trade noted above, however, with a minimum target of 317.91, will remain in effect until such time as 254.46 is exceeded to the downside. This will be a good test of whether the sleazebags who manipulate this stock for a living are clever enough and strong enough to turn this morning's air pocket into an accumulation opportunity. In the meantime, we should presume that the stock's low near $260 occurred simply because the aforementioned sleazebags felt quite comfortable buying there.

TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:274.91)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free

The drumbeat is quickening ahead of TSLA's impending fall.  Bears who believe it will be easy to profit from this should think twice after Friday's experience. Although I'd recommended buying some out-of-the-money puts a day earlier, the company's shares were among the session's biggest gainers in the institutionally-worshiped-sector. The rally was pure short-squeeze, announcing very clearly that everyone is short the stock, or wants to be. Whenever that is the case, bears should fasten their seat belts and prepare for an extremely rocky ride. It is not unknown for shares of a company to rise even with news stories of criminality swirling around them. The Equity Funding scandal was a notorious example.  Although the stock fell steeply on most days, there were moments when it rallied ferociously on short-covering. Inevitably, these rallies were ascribed to the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the most salacious things being reported about Equity Funding were untrue. Unfortunately, this proved not to be the case. But that didn't stop some of the smartest investors on Wall Street from buying stock up until the moment the SEC halted trading for good. Shades of DeLorean I don't mean to suggest that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is a crook. In fact, he is one of my heroes. But it appears that in shifting money between various Musk enterprises, including SpaceX, and in booking car sales aggressively, he may have pushed the boundaries of accounting beyond their conventional limits.  Read the stories linked here, here and here and you will find it hard to disagree, even if you are as big a fan of Musk as I am. The chart (click on inset) shows what could happen to the stock when its institutional supporters begin to jump ship.  This grave turn of events will seem to happen overnight, sending the