April 2009

My minimum dwnside projection for the near term is ____. That's a midpoint Hidden Pivot, but I wouldn't recommend bottom-fishing there since it comes off a continuous chart. A breach of that number would be bearish, a two-day close below

Implied volatilities have collapsed so badly that the September 270 put we hold for $8 can be bought for a bit less than that even though the stock is trading nearly $10 lower. My hunch is that option volatility will return once Google has had the opportunity to fall a further 50-70 points. We can wait, since our risk

Goldman should lead the way down if the bear is about to emerge from hibernation, as we suspect it is. It would take merely a breach of 112.50 today to turn the daily chart bearish, and a print below 112.22 to queer the 0.618 Fibonacci support associated with the most recent rally leg. Ordinarily I'd suggest trying to leverage the stock's fall by buying some long-dated, way out-of-the-money puts. However,

DaBoyz let the futures grope their way relentlessly lower yesterday in search of a bottom that never materialized. Now, judging from the extremely timid action Monday night, the pros are as nervous as the amateurs concerning what might ensue. The two possible scenarios on which nearly everyone is focused are 1) the bear rally begun on March 6 is over; or 2) a sharp break, one with perhaps 2-3 days remaining, will be recouped quickly as the bear rally returns in earnest. My hunch is that

Gold still looks buoyant after clawing its way higher yesterday, but the rally so far has not been particularly impressive. To avoid false hope or confusion, we'll use _____ today as a bullish trigger, since that's what it would take to turn the hourly chart positive.

For a few bracing hours yesterday, everything seemed right with the world: stocks were getting pounded, gold and silver were moving energetically higher, and crude oil was plummeting just as it should in a world that is sinking into the mire of recession-or-worse. It was a welcome change from the surreal, feel-good mood that has pervaded the bourses in the U.S. and elsewhere since early March. Even the Wall Street Journal deferred to reality with this dog-bites-man story atop the front page: Bank Lending Keeps Dropping.  Shocking, you say? Or should we merely feign outrage, as the Journal did when it wrote: "Political disquiet over banks' perceived lack of lending, as well as their spending on bonus and perks, has provoked skepticism about the administration's ability to revitalize the banking system."  While the skepticism is warranted, it's obvious the Journal doesn't understand what's going on. Like the Obama administration, the newspaper is concerned that the major banks, greedy and depraved as ever, have curtailed lending now that they've gotten their bailout money and paid out a hefty chunk of it in the form of bonuses. This is true, of course, but it only tells half the story. The other half is that consumers are simply not in a borrowing mood, to put it mildly, and that lower interest rates aren't going to change that.  Real Estate Epiphany There are two reasons for this, one of which has been widely acknowledged by the news media: We have all become obsessed with paying down debt. But the second reason is subtler and appears not to have been factored into monetary policy. It is the stark realization by most Americans that real estate values do not necessarily have to rise. Before this epiphany, many found it all too easy to borrow because their net

Friday's peak occurred exactly where expected, and although the rally threatened to break above the 871.25 pivot, it ultimately failed by a single tick to trip our alarm. That would have warned of more upside to at least 890.00; instead, the futures sold off moderately into the close and continued to ease lower Sunday night. The selling didn't look very serious,

The Gold Bugs Index somewhat exceeded an important 341.01 rally target at its last peak, providing modest encouragement that the nasty selloff since has been corrective rather than impulsive. We'll know more if and when HUI encounters a Hidden Pivot support at ____, my minimum downside projection for the near term.

A while ago, I received a note from a New Zealand forecaster named George Carson who said he was getting very impressive results with a system based on "harmonic resistances, momentum and other readings."  He claims 100% accuracy going back two years, and so I asked him to signal me when his system had something interesting to say about precious metals. The signal came on Sunday, and I am sharing it with you by reprinting George's e-mail message below. We'll take a closer look at the details on Monday, since his list of stocks squares nicely with some chat-room favorites.  For the record, I am not expecting a turn in Gold until the June Comex contract comes down a bit more, to around 845.  George says that would be within his parameters, since his signals sometimes lead the action by 2-3 days.   Here's  George, who notes first of all that he is not a financial advisor, and that you should make your own decisions:           The following readings are very important: It appears that gold has now hit the wall and cannot fall further in this 90 day cycle I was expecting a peak of around 1030 at end of march; it did not happen Instead,  we have had Deutsche Bank rescue the Comex We also have IMF plan to sell maybe 400 tonnes of orange stuff but the feds and cronies / crooks their cartels and charlatans plus clever monkeys will soon run out of games On a scale where 20 or less is a must buy the readings are as follows: hui buy reads 18 at 1500 17th April gld buy reads 7 at 1030 17th April slw buy reads 5 at 1030 17th April slv reads 23 at end of day 17 April xau buy reads 8 at 1230 17 April skf buy reads 13 1400 17