Another ‘Camouflage’ Trade, This Time in Silver…

24 comments

We’ve been known to keep odd hours, which, depending on the circumstances, can be good or bad when attempting to earn one’s daily bread trading. Sometimes it seems as though the best opportunities — meaning the ones that produce quick and easy gains with relatively little stress – occur in the dead of night. At other times, especially in the first hour or so after the opening bell, the low-hanging fruit positively beckons those who are able to stay cool while most other traders, too scared to act, are waiting for the dust to settle. We love it when the action is heated – wild, even — since this tends to drive most other traders to the sidelines. Let them sit on their thumbs, as far as we’re concerned – it just means easier pickings for us.  When things get moving, the Hidden Pivot Method that we use to trade and forecast is especially good at identifying the “filet” of uptrends and downtrends. As such, the terms bullish or bearish apply only to the extent that the “impulse legs” that drive these trends are headed higher, or lower, in a given time frame.

A Silver trade that we put out to subscribers Wednesday night implictly required them to pay close attention to impulse legs on the very lesser charts. Here’s what we advised (and keep in mind that although the jargon is technical, it is geared to the many hundreds of subscribers who have taken the Hidden Pivot Course):  “March Silver appears to be building thrust for a shot at 35.535, the ‘D’ target of the pattern shown in the thumbnail mini-inset.  The 34.235 midpoint resistance that would need to be surpassed first is above Tuesday’s spike high, so we’ll  need to make our move below that level, camouflage-style, if we’re going to get aboard with a minimum of stress. For that purpose, I suggest leveraging a B-C pullback from just above the obscure, look-to-the-left peak at 34.030 shown in the larger chart.  The ‘X’ entry trigger could come up quickly, so a state of nimble alertness may be the key to getting executed.”

A Juicy Opportunity

The recommendation is much easier to understand if you look at the chart. What it boils down to is that a small pullback from just above the obscure peak ‘F’ had the potential to set up a juicy buying opportunity. This is exactly what occurred yesterday morning, and the relevant retracement is labeled B-C. A four-contract trade initiated at the subsequent buy signal (aka ‘X’) could have been worth as much as $3100 for about 72 minutes of work. After the trade triggered, we established a “tracking position” to follow it to completion, since a subscriber in the Rick’s Picks chat room reported having done the trade. We advised exiting the last piece of it on the swoon to J, but by then we were looking for a way to catch the next leg up – to the 35.535 target mentioned above.  That’s a “Hidden Pivot” resistance, as well as our minimum upside objective for the near term. If you’d like to learn more about our proprietary trading system and the Hidden Pivot Method, try a free trial subscription.

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  • Nathan February 10, 2012, 6:21 pm

    Rick,

    Why was my comment of two days ago deleted? Is it because I made mention of the fact that if your hidden pivot points were so lucrative there would be no need for you to peddle a pay per view website? That instead you would be sitting on a tropical island sipping out of a hollowed coconut while five beautiful cabana girls tend to your every need?

    Why not take the criticism instead of covering it up?

  • JosephC February 6, 2012, 10:51 pm

    j, one of my trading functions, a “button” on my trading platform (and I use it quite often), is the REVERSE button, SHAMELESSLY!

  • JosephC February 6, 2012, 10:49 pm

    Rick, I have never had any patience for opinions based on anything else but facts. I probably have been guilty too often myself of this worst of human traits. So whenever I see of experience it , I do my best to straighten out the record. I have even less tolerance for those opinions where the ‘opinionator’ is attacking another party, without the facts, especially when the facts are so easily accessible. All these naysayers have to do is ask the question of your long time subscribers, which I am not. However , I do see the old timers on your blog seem to be a pretty happy bunch. As I wrote before, the only opinions that one can take to the bank are those reflected in my trading statements..and your service is doing a sweet job of adding to that. Good trading all — the only reason I am here.

    cheers all

  • j February 5, 2012, 8:09 pm

    Too funny!…I have seen this silly debate many times over the years between those professionals who trade for a living and those who are armchair traders.
    I was a currency trader for over 20 years and I know very well the best of traders are those that can do a 180′ turn when the trend changes. Its a real talent to be able to call within pennies a possible turning point especially in a very volatile currency like silver. Rick did call a possible turn point with silver Dec 29th missing by a few cents!!!….and then the 180′ turn unfolded….many would have sat and watched the trend continue higher stuck with the idea of sub $20 silver…opinions, we all have them, yet successful traders use the chart action to succeed…Rick is a pro trader!

    Amateurs get hung up on targets, pro’s trade the chart action and adjust…..you can’t teach that imo…you’ve either got it or you don’t

    Continued success to you Rick

    &&&&&

    Thank you, J. RA

    j

  • Paul February 5, 2012, 6:06 am

    Rick … There is no need for predictions or to get into debates about inflation vs. deflation …

    Bottom line …increasing fiat money supply = increased price for gold, silver and all other commodities in fiat money terms … period!

    Remember when we played monopoly as kids … as soon as the banker starts handing out $500 bills “like water” to the other players (illegally and for any reason) “to keep them from going bankrupt” you know the game is very near the end!!

    And once the game ended … it was not the $500 dollar “monopoly money” bill (that may have still been in your pocket) that bought you some cracker jacks at the candy store.

    Only “real money” woud be accepted by the candy store owner for your candy purchase.

  • JosephC February 4, 2012, 5:42 pm

    Nathan, if you note carefully, over time Rick’s Picks publishes lots of good and profitable suggestions FREE. The difference with the paid portion is that we get picks with extreme accuracy. In my early days with Rick’s Picks, before I really understood the method, I found the picks so uncannily accurate it felt almost esoteric. I should point out, I am a pro in this business, 35+ yrs , and I can say I do not know of any better service. You could literally make a very nice regular income by merely tradeing RA’s daily recommendations, so long as one is disciplined with his stop-loss recommendations that come with each trade.

    • Rick Ackerman February 4, 2012, 10:22 pm

      My thanks, Joseph, for helping to set the record straight. I’ve republished my forecasts for late December/early January above so that readers may better judge for themselves.

  • JosephC February 4, 2012, 5:25 pm

    Steve, Nathan, I have been a paid subscriber since last June. What I have found is this: Regardless of what “opinions” Rick may post, it is his Hidden Pivot analysis that we pay for. Rick often will post trade recommendations, based on HP analysis that may be contra to his “opinions”. As far as Rick’s end-of-year predictions, he was very explicit in his reservations as to the probability of any of them actually occurring; and he posted them with reluctance, almost tongue-in-cheek. If one was to recognize the subtlety of his wording, I saw it as a placateing effort to those of us who quite respect his opinions, whether we agree with all of them or not. The accuracy and value of his Hidden Pivot Method is making me lots of money –and not just via day trading, since I am more of a swing- and often longer-term position trader.

  • Bay of Pigs February 4, 2012, 4:27 am

    In fairness to Steve, I see no reason to find fault with him for making an accurate and truthful comment. I’ve followed this blog for years and seen many foolish posts in regard to gold and silver. The sad fact is that most of the deflation crowd (not Rick) are complete idiots on PM’s.

    And FWIW, Steve’s work on silver is very good, IMO. His latest article is a great read.

    • Rick Ackerman February 4, 2012, 8:59 pm

      I await your list of my “many foolish posts,” which I will gladly reprint in this forum. Otherwise, a retraction and an apology are in order. Incidentally, I have no record of your having subscribed to my service.

  • Chris T. February 4, 2012, 12:47 am

    Gary writes:
    “Lets not confuse their power with omnipotence. There will most likely come a time where they can’t hold back the “laws of nature”.

    I almost never feel I agree with you, but that is my thought also.
    This is even true as to Steve’s “rigged markets”.
    If one knows, or has reason to feel very stronly about, the direction into which things are being manipulated / rigged, then being a contrarian is not so difficult, so long as there is NO leverage or debt involved.
    So long as the rigging goes on, the accumulators benefit.

    The only thing that is perhaps surprising, is how long this cabal has been able to string things along (and not be at the breaking point even now, though cygnus atratus ( 🙂 ) can end it at any time), and the extent ot their deviousness in keeping things going.
    Many a reasonalbe observer was way too early with his predictions prob. only for not expecting as much nefariousness, not because the basic analysis was wrong.
    But a perpetual motion machine it is not, and when the “expectations” game can no longer be managed, then even the next war on the next abandon-the-dollar oil selller, or the creeping internet control measures will fail, and then the time Gary mentions will be at hand.

    As far as an improving economy, see this chart:
    http://www.chartoftheday.com/201202031.htm?T

    If that’s all their made-up money can produce, then that’s some “improvement”. Even that minor upslope at the end would be flat or down I think, if one takes out government sector employment.

  • Nathan February 3, 2012, 10:01 pm

    Rick,

    So we have to pay to get the correct predictions? I guess that makes sense. But I am the type of person who likes to research what he is buying before he plunks down the fiat. Wouldn’t it make more sense then to come up with more “free” correct predicitons? That way potential paid subscribers will better understand your value.

    But it’s all a gamble anyway, I guess.

    • Rick Ackerman February 5, 2012, 2:30 am

      See Joseph C’s post below.

  • STEVE February 3, 2012, 9:58 pm

    Rick… I understand day traders make bits of money in the lifespan of a Gnat. Anyone who is successful at this sort of insanity (in these present markets) gets a hat tip from me.

    That being said, Rick… you state any who makes investment decisions based on your “MOSTLY WRONG” predictions would be “FOOLISH”. How many readers are able to READ YOUR MIND…. Rick?

    Anyhow… I am not here to be a stick in the mud, but your silver price forecast was not a “LIL” off…..it was nearly 100%. I guess the mindest to be in this type of day trading mentality is you have to just forget what was said say a few weeks or a month ago.

    • Rick Ackerman February 3, 2012, 11:29 pm

      You have an awful way with words, Steve, but you show real talent for twisting mine so that they perfectly suit your all-too-apparent promotional needs. Those who pay for my forecasts would tell you that you’re only embarrassing yourself when you blather on and on about one of my “Predictions for 2012”. Do yourself a favor and take a no-risk trial to Rick’s Picks. It’s available by clicking the link on the home page.

      Also, to anyone whose interest in Silver goes beyond my purely technical forecasts and trading recommendations, I recommend the excellent work of Sean Rakhimov: http://www.silverstrategies.com; and, for a broad overview of the silver market, http://www.silverseek.com

  • STEVE February 3, 2012, 7:42 pm

    Gary…. thank you…you proved my point. How can anyone make any forecasts in a totally rigged market? When the Fed can come in and buy all the Treasuries it wants?

    Happy trading

    • gary leibowitz February 3, 2012, 8:45 pm

      Lets not confuse their power with omnipotence. There will most likely come a time where they can’t hold back the “laws of nature”.

      The last cycle we had the 29 crash followed by an almost immediate purging of unrecoverable debt. It still took two more years for it to be realized. This time around they are trying to use time, low rates, and massive government intervention to allow the markets to recover. Sounds good on paper but in reality it will just delay the process. Way to much world debt. The debt combined with the past 30 year policy to replace cash with credit is a prescription for failure.

      The housing market will be the barameter on how well Bernanke’s policy takes hold. So far all they have done was slow down the decline. No traction in sight.

    • Mario cavolo February 3, 2012, 8:52 pm

      I,ll chime in that the approach is to be respected; to analyze, in this case charts, to look at patterns, to make statistically likely decisions for positions as to an asset’s price direction, to use strict money money mgmnt risk guidelines to create reasonable risk/reward ratios, to then profit more on the winning positions than your limited losses on the positions which go against the trade position…. sounds quite reasonable when I put it that way but a bit trickier in reality… Cheers, Mario

    • SD1 February 4, 2012, 12:42 am

      The Hidden Pivot system seems to navigate around, “a totally rigged market” quite well, so I am not sure what the problem is. Basically (and I am not pointing fingers at you, directly, but in general “the markets are rigged” crowd), when what we do is working, then we are all trading geniuses. When what we do fails, it has to be because the markets are rigged. We shouldn’t expect Wall Street to just hand money over to us without having to work for it.

  • STEVE February 3, 2012, 7:14 pm

    Rick, I had a few questions. I recently wrote [an article] where I discuss that the majority of analysis on the Internet is contradictory and frustrating. I have been following your articles for some time.

    I remember you DEC 30, 2011 TEN PREDICTIONS for 2012. Here was one of them:

    Gold will stage a powerful rally after bottoming at $1445 in January, but the buying spree will fall well short of $2000. Silver will fare relatively worse, falling to $18.35 before finding traction and recovering into the low $30s.
    ——————————————————–
    A little more than a month ago you were predicting $18.35 silver in JAN. Today, in your most recent article, you are now seeing “AN EASY MOVE TO $35.53”.

    What I would like to know is this. How on earth can you have that much of a change in price in one month? It reminds me of what CLIVE MAUND forecasted back on JAN 8, when he said silver would go down to $18 in his charts.

    Listen, I am not trying to be negative here, I just want to know how does JOE BAG OF DONUTS make any sense of the market when you make such an EXTREME difference in your price forecast within a month?

    • gary leibowitz February 3, 2012, 7:19 pm

      If Rick’s chart structure indicates a breakout or breakdown then he goes with the flow. Projections are personal opinion. Trading off projections is not a good idea.

      Rich uses his ABCD pattern to bet regardless of his personal expectations. He even indicated why the DOW was destined to go a lot higher even though his personal opinion of the health of the equity market went against that view.

    • Rick Ackerman February 3, 2012, 7:46 pm

      Steve, if you were to join Rick’s Picks as a paying subscriber, which I assume you are not, you could benefit from the much finer nuances of my daily forecasts.

      Regarding those stupid-but-always-in-demand “My Predictions for 2012” lists, every guru who publishes such a list — including me — is bound to be mostly wrong. I hope you are not so foolish as to base your investment decisions on them.

      &&&&&&

      (February 4) It was brazen of you to come into my forum to launch this presumptuous, self-serving attack. But to those who have actually followed my forecasts closely over the years, you have only made an ass of yourself. While you were licking your chops over the prospect of taking me to task over an 18.355 Silver target that you lifted out of context from my here-goes-nothing ‘Predictions for 2012,’ below are the actual, verbatim forecasts that went out to my subscribers.

      Have a chart handy, and pay close attention to the Hidden Pivot numbers (updated in real time, 24/7, by the way) as my subscribers most surely do, since these pivots are the fine details on which they would have based their trading decisions while you were gloating over my 18.355 ‘error’.

      Taken together, the sequence of predictions below supports my assertion that if my forecasts are going to be wrong, it will not be by much or for long. I have boldfaced a portion of the silver ‘Tout’ published on December 29 because it could not have foreseen more accurately or in more timely fashion the major, bullish reversal that was to occur that very day. For in fact, the futures trampolined powerfully from a low that lay just four cents beneath the 26.185 support flagged in my analysis. They never looked back — and neither did I. As the record clearly shows, I gave my subscribers a bullish heads-up within an inch of the December 29 bottom. Thereafter, all of my highly detailed trading “Touts” were from the long side — albeit cautiously at first for reasons that I make explicitly clear.

      December 29:

      Yesterday’s selloff made short work of an ostensibly solid Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 27.018 pivot, lending authority to its 18.355 sibling. A 50% fall from here is not yet a done deal, although the futures are almost certain, at the very least, to breach late September’s 26.185 low before they find traction. It could prove fleeting, but I would expect a bounce of at least $4 over a period of 3-5 days if bulls are to be given a fighting chance. Keep in mind that the bounce would be occurring with relatively few profit-takers aboard, since most bulls will have gotten shaken loose by the feint beneath 26.185. If this rally were to fail to generate a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart (a feat that would require an unbroken sprint from 29.135 to 33.305), then we should prepare for the worst.

      January 3:

      Like gold, silver has begun the New Year with an unimpressive rally — up 25 cents at the moment. The thrust would need to tack on an additional 63 cents to turn the hourly chart bullish, since that’s what it would take to breach an ‘external’ peak at 28.790 recorded last Wednesday on the way down.

      January 4:

      Unlike February Gold, this vehicle is within easy distance of negating a target 40 cents below the recent bottom at 26.145. However, a much lower target at 18.355 is still in play, and we also need to take into account that the rally so far is not especially impressive considering that it was catalyzed by a viciously false breakdown beneath September’s neon low, 26.185. On balance, we can trade the minor rallies but use tight stops. Just such an opportunity could unfold Tuesday night or Wednesday based on the pattern shown. The implied entry risk would be $1500 per contract on the 120-min chart (25% of A-B x $50/1 cent), so you’ll need to zoom down to a chart (end entry pattern) of lesser degree when the big-pattern ‘X’ is about to trigger. _______ UPDATE (3:11 a.m. EST): A pattern very similar to the one I sketched triggered a 29.410 ‘X’ entry signal at around 2:10 a.m., but executing the trade on the 1-minute chart would have produced an unacceptably large loss of 2.5 cents per contract, or $125. Entry would have come off the pattern A=29.400 (2:47 a.m.); B=29.465 (2:48 a.m.), C=29.435 and X=29.455. A lower, second point ‘C’ at 29.420 (2:53 a.m.) yielded a solid winner that would still be live, but strictly speaking, ‘camo’ trades should work on the first try or we don’t do them. The next valid entry opportunity — and winning trade — would have come at X=29.495 (3:00 a.m.), but I’ll let you discover the details so that you can learn from them. (Swimming with the sharks in the wee hours needn’t be scary. If you’re a night owl looking to make the most of the excellent opportunities that frequently occur when most traders are asleep, click here.)

      January 5:

      Unlike gold, silver’s thrusts have been unambiguously impulsive on the lesser charts, suggesting it will lead the way (as well it should, since silver has a lot more lost ground to make up from 2011). We can use the 30.120 Hidden Pivot shown in the chart as a minimum upside target for now, predicated on a decisive push above it ‘p’ sibling at 29.520. That resistance was exceeded yesterday by 2.5 cents, tipping my bias for Thursday bullish. Night owls should notice that, at press time, the futures were working on a bullish ‘camo’ pattern projecting to 29.600. On the 15-minute chart, A=29.120 at 8:30 p.m. EST, and B=29.440.

      January 6:

      I identified a Hidden Pivot at 30.120 here yesterday as a minimum upside objective, but yesterday’s price action lends more weight to another pair of pivots — they lie, respectively, at 29.755 and 30.825 — that will probably play a larger role over the next few days. The provenance of both is shown in the chart, and it will undoubtedly take some diligent attention to the 15-minute chart to exploit the anticipated move without risking much.

      January 9:

      March Silver spent the week backing and filling following the 14% rally that has kicked off the New Year. Remaining patient is our only option at the moment, but we can still use the 30.215 ‘external’ peak shown in the chart to tell us when mere noise is starting to sound more like the fearsome snort of a resurgent bull. Camo traders should stick with micro-risk plays on the 5-minute chart, since this vehicle has been creating new point ‘C’ lows as though every silver trade out there is all too eager to buy. (Want to learn how we use Hidden Pivots and “camouflage” to reduce entry risk to relatively small change? Click here.)

      January 10:

      Yesterday’s peak at 29.205 created a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart — and a bit of camouflage as well. The pattern is shown in the accompanying chart, with a buy signal at 28.875 that would have implied far too much entry risk — $900 in theory — for us to have used bars of hourly degree. (Pop quiz for camouflageurs: Can you find a better, cheaper way in on the five-minute chart?) Because the 29.000 midpoint pivot has been exceeded to the upside, we should infer that the pattern will complete to its ‘D’ target at 29.250. If not, bulls are more enfeebled at the moment than we might otherwise have suspected.

      January 11:

      Silver would have to rally a further $5.50, exceeding 35.680, to negate the scary targets below $20 broached here earlier, but the $4 rally so far is an encouraging start. It projects to at least 31.030, but if that Hidden Pivot fails to slow buyers down, we’d be looking at a possible rampage to as high as 32.145. To assess buyers’ resolve, we should pay close attention to the ‘external’ peak at 31.070 that was recorded in mid-December in the throes of a steep fall. If buyers pay it little heed, that would be the most heartening technical sign we’ve had since October, when the futures embarked on a 12% rally that ultimately failed.

      January 12:

      The 31.030 rally target given here yesterday continues to serve as a minimum objective for the near term, but a close above it would augur more upside over the near term to as high as 32.145. The effort so far this week has created a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart by surpassing an ‘internal’ peak at 29.740 recorded last Wednesday and an external at 30.210 from December 21, implying that any pullback that doesn’t breach 29.210 to the downside would be setting up another rally leg. More immediately, night owls can use the pattern shown to try to get long. The entry signal has already been tripped at 29.930 on the ’15’, so you’ll need to drill down to the ‘5’ to get aboard belatedly.

      January 13:

      March Silver went impulsively bullish on the lesser charts late Thursday night, but this was after it achieved a ‘D’ target on a pullback. That suggests bulls will struggle on Friday and that any trades from the long side be done via a ‘camouflage’ entry that poses no more than $70 of theoretical risk per contract. At exactly 1 a.m. EST, the three-minute chart showed an ‘camo’ pattern with a potential entry trigger at 29.985. The coordinates are as follows: A=29.875, B=30.010, C=29.950 (Note: That last number is very tentative). This set-up may be gone in five minutes, but I have presented it nonetheless so that you’ll have an idea of what to look for if you want to get aboard tonight using charts of least-most degree.

  • gary leibowitz February 3, 2012, 5:30 pm

    With the dollar unable to break the uptrend and domestic economic conditions continuing to improve it’s hard to see commodities break out from here.

    With the fibonacci date of 2/16 for a possible reversal in equities it now looks like 1375 on the SPX is reachable.

    All those expecting the dollars demise, inflation accelerating, and equities hiting the abyss should reevaluate their position.

    Any big trend reversal from here seems unlikely in the next three months. A correction in the bull trend is more likely. I suspect we are in a “sweet spot” where domestically we can grow as the EU falls into a recession. This should balance the inflation expectations as China and the EU slowdown.

    I suspect the next round of talks will be on fear that inflation will hit hard, given the recent domestic economic improvements. Housing prices should benifit but I don’t expect any big reversals in trend.

    The only way I see commodities revamp their bull run is if the PPI and more importantly the CPI spike.

    • j February 3, 2012, 6:24 pm

      Sorry Gary I’m a little confused???

      With the dollar unable to break the uptrend and domestic economic conditions continuing to improve it’s hard to see commodities break out from here.

      If the US$ the measure of which all commodities are priced in value is not heading higher but lower… than everything priced in US$’s will be priced higher, along with your bullish domestic economic conditions improving than commodity demand will increase.

      Ya can’t have economic demand picking up and a lower US$ without higher commodity prices imo….Silver is not a commodity its currency as is Gold and industrial demand on improved economic conditons and again a lower US$ will put a floor under Silver’s value….lets not forget the huge supply-demand issue regarding Silver…but thats whole other bullish story!

      j


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