July 2012

A low-risk opportunity to short August Crude using a 90.53 rally target (first given near 83) has surfaced early Thursday morning. The actual high so far is 90.72 -- within a penny of the 21-cents' leeway I usually allow this vehicle.  Traders who fill should let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.  You can learn how to trade using 'camouflage' a lot faster than you might think.  _______ UPDATE (2:40 p.m.): In the light of today's strong surge, my tout has been updated to reflect a new rally target at 95.31. Click here for information about the upcoming webinar, plus a $50 discount offered on the home page. Once you're registered, you'll receive all course materials and webinar recordings.

Yesterday's failure by $2.80 to reach a minor downside target at 1564.40 is bullish, but the futures have yet to 'actualize' the potential thereof via a robust impulse leg, even if on the lowly 15-minute chart.  That would take an unpaused thrust today exceeding the four prior peaks shown, the last two of which are external.  If Gold instead continues lower, you can try bottom-fishing at 1558.10, stop 1557.50.  That's two ticks above the D target of (on the 15m chart) A=1592.20 at 12:45 p.m EDT on July 17; B=1567.20 at 9:00 a.m. on July 18.

The 389.71 target of the bearish pattern shown is so sharply defined that the so-far small overshoot seems extremely likely to produce still lower lows.  For starters, we should use the 385.17 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown. Its breach, by more than 0.05-0.10 points would portend still more slippage to 364.53. Want to learn how to do this stuff yourself? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks.

We're looking to get short at 1386.25 or above, but the trade will need to be initiated via camouflage since there are three other closely spaced 'D' targets above it that could mark the eventual top.  They lie, respectively, at 1388.00, 1392.75 and 1397.75 (see inset) and are shown in the accompanying chart.  Odds that the futures will reach the topmost Hidden Pivot before reversing sharply are probably no worse than even, because the Big Picture rally begun in December of 2011 recently exceeded its 1368.00 midpoint resistance by 7 points.  Night owls should trade from the long side, using the 5-minute chart for leverage. Shortly after 2 a.m. EDT, the futures were looking pretty feisty, reaching the 'p' midpoints of most minor rally patterns.

A precise stall at the midpoint has validated the bullish pattern shown, but the futures will need to rip through it on the next thrust to become an odds-on shot of reaching its 'D' sibling at 28.765.  That would be quite a rally, but it would also generate a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart, promising more of the same. Accordingly, I've set a screen alert at 28.745, since this is one very bullish signal I do not want to miss.

A potential trade I'd flagged in August Gold for night owls has failed to get off the launcher, but check out the tout for September Silver if you want to see what it would take to ignite fireworks.  Click here for a trial subscription that will not only allow you to view the chart, but to tune in to expert trading discussion in the Rick's Picks chat room.

Gold followed stocks down, then up, yesterday -- until the latter effervesced on a short squeeze into day's end.  Even so, bullion's weakness has gone no further than the midpoint support shown in the chart, and it looked like an appealing place to try bottom-fishing using camouflage on the one-minute chart. As of around 12:31 a.m. EDT, an impulsive rally had just exceeded an 'external' peak at 1579.90, but the move is already too strong to yield the kind of subtlety we need for a low-risk entry.  _______ UPDATE (1:43 a.m. EDT): The move died, although the coordinates shown in the chart -- both support and resistance -- remain valid as of this moment.

We were stopped out on opening-bar nuttiness for a theoretical loss of $140.  It's a relief to have the stock off the sheets, notwithstanding the fact that the sleazeballs  who buggered it yesterday had the chutzpah to close it unchanged on the day. Officially, we have probably seen the last of Premium for a while. Unofficially, however, because I still view the company as impressive in many ways, I am going to recommend to my 17-year-old son that he take a flyer on 10,000 shares, using dollars he has earned busing tables and packaging takeout orders at an Asian restaurant.  This would be a long-term play, to be bought and forgotten, much like the silver coins he has been socking away since he was five. Want to beat this rigged game in real time like a pro? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks.

Yesterday's wholly gratuitous swoon catalyzed a short-squeeze that has carried well above the 1353.00 midpoint resistance flagged here earlier. That will shorten the odds of a follow-through in the days ahead to 1386.25, its 'D' sibling.  Because the target has been confirmed by a stall precisely at the midpoint, it is shortable either via camouflage or a tight stop-loss. More immediately, your trading bias should be bullish, possibly using either of the two 'external' peaks shown in the chart to get aboard via camouflage.