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THE MORNING LINE
- Although a Warren victory would be an unqualified disaster for the stock market and, arguably, for America, it’s harder to imagine what a Bloomberg presidency might look like. The left-leaning, billionaire news-mogul entered the race on Friday by filing for the Alabama primaries. This is a change of heart from a few months ago, when he announced that he had no plans to run. He has stepped in because he’s concerned that none of the leading Democrats could beat Trump. He may be right, especially since Warren shot herself in the foot — and chest, and head — last week by spelling out exactly how she would pay for ‘Medicare for All’.
How’s That Again, Liz?
If there were any doubts that her ideas were hatched in the fever swamps of socialism, they were dispelled by what she revealed of Warrencare last week. For starters, and as we already knew, everyone in America with an employer-based health plan would lose it. Billionaires like Bloomberg supposedly would pay for it, but if funding came up short, policy tweaks would make up the difference. How’s that again? Here’s Warren in her own, opaquely wonky words: “I will use available policy tools, which include global budgets, population-based budgets and automatic rate reductions to bring it back in line.” Even Piketty, the French leftist whose ideas Warren has borrowed from promiscuously and plagiarized, must be embarrassed by such claptrap.
Bloomberg, at 77, is a year younger than Sanders but seemingly robust and in good health, so age would not be a major factor. He could run a much better race against Trump than any of the current Democratic frontrunners: Warren, Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg. Unlike them, although Bloomberg is a meddlesome liberal who would want to intrude on every area of our lives, including our diets, he is no loony leftist. He is in fact very much a capitalist, for better or worse, and so Wall Street undoubtedly could live with him. If he were to win the election, the bull market probably wouldn’t miss a beat, assuming it is still chugging along a year from now. An added plus — for America and all mankind — is that a Bloomberg run would probably drive a stake through the heart of any Hillary candidacy, ending her political career once and for all
Although some notable long-term bond bulls are close to throwing in the towel as U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, the chart suggests the bull market begun nearly 40 years ago still has farther to go. Yields on the long bond settled Friday at 2.41%, up from 1.90% in August, while T-Notes have gone from 1.43% to 1.93% over the same time. The rallies have been impressive if not to say scary, since they have subjected hundreds of trillions of dollars of borrowings to a deflationary turn of the screw. The burden of debt promises to lighten before it becomes
As predicted, AMZN easily recouped losses incurred during last week’s shakedown on earnings news. DaBoyz used the dog-bites-man story of the month — Same-Day Deliveries Crimp Profits! — as an opportunity to steal shares from widows and pensioners at fire-sale prices. The trampoline bounce that ensued has tripped a theoretical buy signal at the green line (1773.79) and put p2=1862.52 in play as a minimum upside objective for the near term. The target looks like it’s in-the-bag, but call options are too juiced to offer much edge. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5;35 p.m. EST): A so-far mellow correction off Monday’s
We gutted it out last week to stay long through a swoon that left GDX little changed from a week earlier. The partial profit we took on half the position gives us 200 shares with an adjusted cost basis of 26.77. Friday’s punk performance lagged physical gold, which was up nearly $5 at one point. GDX never went ‘green’, but it is not likely sit still if bullion’s rally resumes or picks up steam in the week ahead. In any event, offer 100 shares to close for 28.60, o-c-o with a stop-loss on the position at 26.78. If GDX takes
We took a small position in Nov8 21 calls Friday, paying 0.14 for four of them (or a multiple thereof). The trade was predicated on an expected turn from the 19.15 target shown. This Hidden Pivot support is not of the finest pedigree, since the A-B impulse leg from which it was derived has a point ‘B’ low that is about as sausage-y as they get. Even so, the target looks good enough to warrant a small, speculative bet, and it would be a little spooky if VXX doesn’t turn from somewhere near here by mid-week. The fact that it
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