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THE MORNING LINE

A Simple Explanation for Bitcoin’s Plunge

Bitcoin mania hit an air pocket on Sunday with a so-far $11,500 plunge from last week’s record-high $64,858. Groping for an explanation, Bloomberg and other mainstream sources attributed the drop to speculation that the U.S. Treasury might crack down on digital-money laundering. Yeah, sure. This tired story has been marking time for a decade, ever since the days when only a few hardcore gamers knew about blockchain money. Now it is being reheated and served up as a convenient explanation for bitcoin’s nuttiness, much as stories about “tariff fears” and “vaccine hopes”‘ were trotted out each and every time mass psychosis seized traders.

Crypto fans had better get used to the crackdown story. Recall that it took almost two years for the news media’s tariff-war allegory to die a natural death. This occurred when the “war” itself became too convoluted for the supposed experts to explain. Eventually, and mercifully, they came to realize that they were only embarrassing themselves when they tried.  Now financial writers have trained their wellspring of ignorance on the latest tabloid story involving markets — the epic mania in cryptocurrency. While this may be a welcome respite from sensationalist blather about how Reddit kids were crushing the hedge funds, it hardly serves to explain bitcoin’s rabid swings. So let me try, even though the simple explanation is voodoo stuff that will never surface on Bloomberg or Jim Cramer’s vaudeville show.

‘Hidden Pivots’ Rule!

First understand there is no rational explanation for the day-to-day histrionics of deranged markets. The overarching mania is not hard to understand. It exists, and intensifies until climax, because speculators increasingly become convinced they can get rich quickly and with little actual work.  However, short-term whoops, dives and spasms can be explained and even predicted only by using charts.  Thus can we assume that bitcoin’s big drop on Sunday was unrelated to any particular news. In fact, it began, unsurprisingly, from within 0.1% of a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 64,953 shown in the chart. As for the ‘crackdown’ explanation, we can be certain it will vanish the moment bitcoin’s bullish rampage resumes. Rinse and repeat.

Now for the technical picture. If you have trouble with chart voodoo, stop by the Rick’s Picks chat room and ask about it. Subscribers will tell you that, for all the wild price swings, bitcoin has yet to generate an unprofitable ‘buy’ signal based on a proprietary trick we use called a ‘mechanical’ set-up. Moreover, it would do so again if the current plunge were to hit the green line, a Hidden Pivot benchmark at exactly 50,400. The trade would be predicated on an eventual recovery to $72,230. A word of caution: This trade is not for amateurs or the faint-hearted, since the initial risk, using a stop-loss just beneath the pattern’s point ‘C’ low at $43,123, would exceed $30,000 for four round lots. We have ways to cut that down to $3000 or less theoretical, but you’ll need to immerse yourself in the chat room for a couple of weeks to discover how.

$BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:55,185)

Although bitcoin got savaged Sunday morning when it opened more than $11,000 beneath Friday’s close, the plunge would not have stopped out a long position acquired ‘mechanically’ at p=$57,676, the red line. I had not recommended the trade explicitly, but I am mentioning it now to buttress your awareness of how powerful upthrusts such as we have seen in bitcoin tend to produce ‘mechanical’ buy signals that are profitable. Realize as well that ‘dynamic’ moves invariably beget violent counterswings such as Sunday’s. In any event, the 72,230 target of the pattern shown remains viable, as does possible resistance at 66,680,

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$GCM21 – June Gold (Last:1778.90)

June Gold cleared a key hurdle on Friday by an inch, triggering a theoretical buy signal tied to a 2083.90 target. First things first, however, meaning we should set our sights no higher than p=1880.10 for the time being. This midpoint Hidden Pivot can serve as a minimum upside objective for a climb that would take about 2-3 weeks, assuming the bullishness evident in Silver is present. Even though the rally has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, this is the most bullish price action we’ve seen in gold since last summer. A longer-term chart allows

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:33,820)

I am temporarily adding the Dow Industrials to my list of touts in order to show bull market targets at 34,355 and 37,093 that correspond to the ones I’ve flagged in the June E-Mini S&P. They are closely comparable, reflecting potential thrusts of either 1.6% of 9.7%, depending on whether p2 or D, if either, stops the bullish stampede.  The respective targets for the E-Mini S&P lie 2% and 10% above, implying that a last-gasp rally could show slight relative strength compared to the Dow.  I should mention that the DJIA chart is much less compelling than the E-Mini’s, since

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