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THE MORNING LINE
Yet another October surprise! I’m not referring to the rock-solid evidence that surfaced last week linking Sleazy Joe directly to his son’s shady business deals and the huge kickbacks they’ve generated over the years. No, I’m talking about something even more unexpected: It’s becoming cool for African Americans to vote for Trump and to openly support him. Rapper Kanye West started things rolling in April with a full-throated endorsement that caused jaws to drop in the entertainment world. He took a lot of heat for it but stood his ground, contending the Trump had done more for blacks in three short years than the Democrats have accomplished since the Civil Rights Act became law more than 50 years ago. Although Kanye later decided to run or president himself, his pro-Trump message continued to reverberate in the black community. Now it has emboldened some of the rap world’s biggest stars, including Ice Cube and 50 Cent, to openly declare their support for Trump. After checking out Biden’s tax proposal, the latter reportedly was concerned it would reduce him to 20 Cent. His endorsement, along with a few others that have followed, including most recently from Waka Flocka Flame, have helped push the President’s approval rating among African Americans to 46%, up from 25% just a week ago. This is according to the latest Rasmussen survey, and even if these numbers turn out to have been way off, no one doubts that Trump has picked up a significant number of African American votes since 2016.
Undeniable Job Gains
Biden’s miserable performance in the second debate, including a half-dozen lapses into senile babble, undoubtedly contributed to the Rasmussen result. But there is something far bigger at work. It began in the streets of Seattle and Portland last summer, when riots aimed at “the Establishment” caused many deaths and billions of dollars in property damage. Both of these cities, like virtually every other big American city in which rioting and looting took place, have been run by machine Democrats for generations. Although the legacy news media tried to downplay this telling fact, it was not lost on black Americans. Nor were pleas by many black city dwellers to increase police protection rather than defund it, as numerous high-profile Democrats are advocating. Into the breach stepped some high-profile rappers. They have become the first super-influencers to openly acknowledge the obvious — i.e., that Trump has done far more for black Americans than any Democratic president — most notably Barack Obama, whose divisive rhetoric set race relations in the U.S. back a hundred years. Post-Obama unemployment among African Americans and Hispanics reached an all-time low before the pandemic hit — respectively, 5.5% and 3.9%. Try as the Democrats and their friends in the news media might, efforts to blame Trump for job losses caused by the pandemic have failed to get traction.
GOP’s Urban Innovation
Trump didn’t mention it in either of the two debates, but the EnVision program headed by HUD’s Ben Carson is one of the most innovative urban renewal solutions ever attempted. Speaking as a former resident of Atlantic City, where unemployment is close to 50%, I can attest that it is the only plan offered to date that is capable of bringing the slum-ridden town back to life. Ironically, it was a government program hatched by the Democrats that helped destroy the resort in the first place. An 80-acre neighborhood of beautiful but dilapidated 1930s homes was plowed under to prepare for an urban renewal program that never happened. Government red tape tied up the project for so long that the key developers simply walked away.
In 1971, one of my first assignments as a fledgling reporter for the Atlantic City Press was a five-part series documenting the myriad failures of Lyndon Johnson’s ‘War on Poverty’. This epic boondoggle was enabled by the Office of Economic Opportunity, and it used the same urban renewal model that helped wreck so many other cities. The Democrats are directly to blame for this, and for blowing an estimated $20 trillion dollars over decades on failed attempts to eliminate poverty. It took Biden’s empty, dishonest boasts about helping African Americans to provoke rappers to set the record straight. Their activist role in the campaign promises to free blacks from the helpless state of dependency Democrats have imposed on them since the Civil War. It is yet one more reason why Trump is going to win by a landslide.
I suggested early last week to tune out this vehicle — advice that turns out to have saved us some stress. The futures oscillated nervously within a relatively tight range, paralyzed, if not by fear, then by uncertainty. Not much will be required to turn the futures into a runaway helium balloon, however, and this could happen as early as mid-week on growing perceptions that Trump will win. This notion could conceivably have gained critical mass by the time you read this on Sunday night, since Biden’s campaign was taking on serious water when last week ended. Even if his
We hold ten Nov 6 130 puts for 0.16 as a hedge against a Biden victory, but they will offer scant consolation if the tragedy of a Biden/Harris administration comes to pass. I consider this improbable, however, and the likelihood of Trump’s re-election would be confirmed if IWM exceeds the 169.39 target shown with a manic leap. It looked as though buyers were developing thrust for this last week, when would-be resistance at p2=160.36 was gradually turned into support. The Russell 2000 and the Industrial Average have lagged the Nasdaq 100 since March, but they appear eager to make up
GDX has been regularly disappointing us for more than two months and is close to doing it again. Although the stock tripped a ‘textbook’ mechanical buy on Thursday when it pulled back to the green line, it pulled back even more on Friday and ended the week just inches from breaching the point ‘C’ low of the bullish pattern. I hadn’t recommended the trade to begin with because my recent updates placed the burden of proof on bulls. And so it shall remain until such time as buyers can push this cinder block above the 42.54 ‘external peak recorded September
The burden of proof rests with bulls for the time being, since the rally from Aug 11-18 failed to surpass a distinctive ‘external’ peak at 44.18 (see inset). If the corresponding ABC downtrend were to play out, a touch at 42.48 would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short with a 37.64 price objective. This is blandly objective analysis, but I must tell you that I’m not thrilled with the prospect of shorting GDX, given the difficulties sellers have had pushing gold lower over the last two weeks. I’ll recommend watching from the sidelines for a couple of days, although there are always
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