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Chart
The Morning Line

U.S. Political, Financial Manias Have Peaked

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We’re at the end of an era, says my colleague Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors. Political craziness in the U.S. has peaked with a wacky socialist scheme to soak the rich for money to pay scientists and bureaucrats to control the weather. No less idiotic is the entrenched notion that the Fed can prevent the financial bubble it created from bursting. This delusion will end when the inevitable bear market arrives. As for the Green New Deal, says Hoye, it will collapse when enough voters come to understand that “climate scares have been rigged for grant money and to impose a new world order.” For most Americans, the end of these two manias cannot come soon enough. Click here for Hoye’s superb essay, which sees parallels in the collapse of Rome and in popular uprisings going back to ancient Egypt.

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:25,439)

EST

The Indoos stalled Monday almost precisely at the 25,440 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. Buyers subsequently gave up almost no ground, setting up a likely move past the resistance on Wednesday. If it’s decisively exceeded, that would all but clinch more upside to the 25,998 target.  This was already no worse than an even-odds bet because the initial thrust, labeled A-B in the chart, exceeded two prior peaks without taking a breather. That created a powerful impulse leg; however, an even more powerful one would occur if the target is hit, since it lies slightly above a key ‘external’ peak at 25,980 recorded just before the stock market began to fall apart in early December. Technical analysis aside, you can use your eyeballs to answer this question: If the Dow reaches the 25,998 target, will it be close enough to new all-time highs to make them likely? Whatever your answer, the very possibility will be foremost on traders’ fevered brains, conceivably ‘magnetizing’ October’s all-time high at 26,951. ______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 4:56 p.m.):  Today’s action, which featured a pop to 25626, followed the script above. Please note that a pullback today to the green line at 25161 would trip a mechanical buy, stop 24,883. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 5:20): No change.

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:170.82)

EST

Buyers shut down to save energy as the week ended, but not before they’d muscled past a supply zone created in mid-December on the way down (see inset). Expect them to return in force once the news environment turns favorable again toward a wafting rally.  AAPL is being deftly manipulated higher on short-covering, but the news cycle is crucial to the effort. Under the circumstances, we might expect AAPL and the broad averages to go nowhere on Monday, usually a non-news day; then to start rising again when some pseudo-‘real’ news begins to dribble out on Tuesday. AAPL has the potential to hit 178.00 on the next burst, but  it will need to push above the 184.94 peak recorded on December 3 to fool the herd into thinking new all-time highs are actually possible. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 5:13 p.m.): AAPL feels leaden, the moreso because the dirtballs who manipulate it for a living opened it on the high of the day, making fools of buyers. They will remember this, at least for a short while, adding an extra layer of supply the next time DaBoyz attempt to goose the stock._______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 5:34): Zzzzzzz. AAPL went nowhere — including down, which I read as slightly bullish.

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$ESH19 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2755.00)

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$AMZN – Amazon (Last:1638.27)

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$GCJ19 – April Gold (Last:1318.20)

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$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:96.70)

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Tuesday, March 5, 2019

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

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