The three-day dance around p=2630.70 left me mildly bearish when the week ended, but not so bearish that I would recommend a 'mechanical' short at the green line. Although the bounce to the line will have occurred off our sweet spot midway between p and p2, the tedious, irregular C-D leg let off enough steam to flatten A-B's bearish energy. That energy is what makes 'mechanical' trades work and the reason why this gambit is unlikely to offer the edge we seek. In any event, the D target at 2500.00 remains my worst-case low between now and December 31. It will also provide good odds for bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss.
We'll find out soon whether Mr Slammy has bigger ambitions than the so-far two-day thrashing he has administered to gold futures. The small reverse pattern shown yields a target at 2643.00 that is probably the best bulls can hope for. You can bottom-fish there with a 'camouflage' trigger created from five-minute-or-less bars, but if this 'hidden' support is easily exceeded, brace for more downside to at least 2628.10. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a big pattern (A=2826.30 on 10/3) associated with a D target at 2497.40, a worst-case target for 2024. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 12:52 p.m.): The futures have turned higher from within an inch of the 2643.00 minimum downside target given above. A relapse would encounter 'voodoo' support near 2632.70 that can be bottom-fished with a small-pattern (aka 'camouflage') trigger. Otherwise, the so-far modest bounce will need to touch 2683.50 to suggest a recovery and become interesting.
Gold served up a second consecutive week of slop, making it difficult to guess what's on the minds of the thieves who manipulate it for a living (legally and with the Guvmint's complicity, of course). However, enduring uptrends tend to produce relative weak countertrends, and that describes this one so far. It has twice penetrated to Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2647.90, but without sending the futures down to the pattern's 2605.30 target. They could still get there, but bears might be drained of energy by then. Alternatively, a pop through C=2690.50 would signal a resumption of the long-term bull trend. Worst case: a two-day close beneath 2617.50, portending more slippage to as low as 2487.00 (daily chart, A= 2826.00 on 10-31-24).
The December contract cheated us out of a profitable 'mechanical' buy at the green line when it erupted for a 60-point rally without having quite touched our 'launching pad' at x=2598.80. Price action is bullish but not quite bullish enough to make the bounce a shoo-in to achieve the pattern's 2770.70 target. We'll therefore begin the week without the usual confidence and clarity, so check for updates if there's any movement, since that cannot but shed light on the strength and resilience of the uptrend. My gut feeling is that it will achieve d=2770.70, but without making it look easy. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 3:58 p.m.): More sideways tedium this week has added nothing useful to an indecisive picture. I am proffering this chart nonetheless as a companion to the update moments ago of the Silver tout immediately below. Both need an upsurge through their respective midpoint Hidden Pivot resistances to signal the onset of a meaningful rally.
The reverse pattern shown nailed the recent top nicely, although it did not furnish the information that might have explained crude's latest conniption. Now I'm hearing that last week's plunge was discounting a 'peace' settlement between U.S./Europe and Israel's most murderous enemies. Netanyahu is too polite to tell those who hatched this suicide pact without respecting his or Israel's existential needs to shove it up their ass, but he will surely ignore it. If this is indeed what is driving oil at the moment, we'll tune it out until price action returns to its wonted, psychotic state. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11): $80/barrel has been pivotal to crude's swings since last August and is still the number to beat. The pattern shown projects slightly above it and would give bulls more credibility if the 80.08 target is exceeded, especially on a closing basis.
I wouldn't trust a rally if it starts the week, but neither am I inclined to bottom-fish until such time as the futures drop into 'voodoo' territory just below 2000. A dip beneath two January lows near 2004 is obligatory in any event, so let's watch for it to develop. If and when that happens, we may be able to find a reverse pattern trigger of small degree to catch a ride north. Big, meaningless days seem to be cropping up with greater frequency lately, so we should resolve to remain unexcitable if anything interesting appears to be happening.
Gold has relapsed to the green line twice since triggering what had looked like a fine mechanical buying opportunity shortly before Christmas. It has done little since but tease, vex and antagonize, but if past is precedent, the tedium will be broken soon by a big rally to the 2184.80 target shown. That's no assurance that buying now, at levels beneath where we might have been long anyway, will produce a better trade. Since the futures remain in theory a good bet to rally back up to p=2086.40, we'll continue to look for ways to get aboard with risk tightly controlled. The entry risk for the 'textbook' 'mechanical' buy was $20k on four contracts.
Feb Gold's bounce from the green line took time to develop and is still not airborne. But the uptrend should at least reach the red line, validating the strong 'mechanical' buy signal that triggered on the pullback. We are used to disappointment in this vehicle, and impatient about when the long-term bull market will once again shift into high gear. When it does, the next target of consequences above the one at 2184.80 show in the chart lies at 2273.60, a Hidden Pivot resistance derived from a continuous monthly chart where A=681 in 2008.
February Crude has been on a 'mechanical' buy signal since early December, when a pullback first touched the green line. The futures have since gone flat, dancing a jig a 'x' that suggests DaBoyz are in no hurry to let it loose. Geopolitical mayhem, including the targeting of tankers in the Suez, has had surprisingly little effect, and we hesitate to ascribe this to ordinary forces of supply and demand. But with China's economy weakening and the U.S. headed as always into recession, perhaps that is the explanation. Crazy world! In any event, the futures have pussyfooted at the green line for long enough that the buy signal, even if still theoretically valid, is no longer enticing. Look for quotes to fall below C=64.21 over the next eight to ten weeks, pulling gas prices down below $3 in most states.
Two conventional ABC patterns are driving crude higher to, respectively, 75.80 and 77.48. Both of these Hidden Pivot resistances are shown in the chart, with HP levels that should be tradable. That implies that a pullback to the green line from Friday's high at our sweet spot would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy. Also, a subsequent rally to the target could be shorted with a tightly constructed reverse pattern. The larger ABC has a midpoint resistance at 73.44, and an 'x' green line at 72.26 that also would be buyable. Bottom line: Expect Feb Crude to continue higher, with no dips below C=69.28, to at least 77.48.
