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The Morning Line

Deaf, Dumb and Blind, Wall Street Keeps Its Cool

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The stock market kept its cool Thursday, demonstrating yet again that traders are deaf, dumb and blind to whatever is going on in the real world. The Dow rose moderately even though the headlines were a full shade darker than usual. Trump was threatening to punish GM for closing an auto plant in Ohio. (He could kill two birds with one stone if he waits for his nemesis Musk to take over the company.) The Saudis were planning a sharp cut in oil exports in order to drive up prices; the U.S. budget deficit hit a record in November; and Pimco raised the odds of a recession over the next 12 months to 30%, a nine-year high. Despite the menacing tone of the news, the Industrial Average eked out a 70-point gain while the S&Ps fell slightly. Let’s hope retailers don’t chime in with a dour yuletide report or we’re liable to see a Santa rally in reverse. Seasonality is strongly in bulls’ favor, but if DaBoyz are unable to seize the advantage on Friday to end this unusually turgid week, Wall Street will face a ponderous overhang of supply come Monday.

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$ESZ18 – DEC E-Mini S&P (Last:2644.75)

EST

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$AMZN – Amazon (Last:1663.13)

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:169.09)

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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:2.856%)

EST

Odds that long-term rates have made an important top increased with the recent plunge in yields beneath the trendline shown in today’s chart (see inset). The U.S. Ten-Year Note fell to 2.826% last week, down from a high a month ago near 3.25%. The decline narrowly missed exceeding a key low at 2.808% (#1) recorded in August, but if and when that happens it would generate an impulse leg of weekly-chart degree that could weigh on rates in 2019. And if the downtrend were to exceed two prior ‘external’ lows shown in the chart at, respectively,  2.759% (#2) and 2.717% (#3) without an upward correction, that would shorten the odds even further that long-term rates have topped.

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$GCG19 – Feb Gold (Last:1249.30)

EST

Gold continues to make headway in herky-jerky fashion, failing to fully satisfy bulls but also denying bears much to cheer about. On Monday, the February Comex contract rallied to within a millimeter of the 1240.20 Hidden Pivot target shown. The pullback so far has been mild, encouraging the thought that the next pop will be good for a ride to 1259.80. Another encouraging sign is that some recent ‘mechanical’ buy signals in gold vehicles, including one in HUI, the Gold Bugs Index, have been winners.  We’d sworn off this type of trade in bullion after getting stopped out once in the futures, but they seem to be working again. This implies that buying enthusiasm has picked up a little over the last couple of weeks. For your information, the February futures is currently on a ‘mechanical’ buy signal that tripped at 1216.80, stop 1202.40.______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 4:00 p.m.): The February contract climbed as high as 1255.80 today. Just a smidgen more! We want buyers to blow past that Hidden Pivot, since that would announce their intention to push still higher. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 9:59 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

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$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:96.64)

EST

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$BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:4380)

EST

Bloomberg news is out with a breathless dispatch tonight that suggests digital currencies have bottomed. If so, I can find no compelling evidence of it in the charts. Their expert is a guy named Michael Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs partner who likes the current look of Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index. It measures the performance of the largest cryptocurrencies versus the dollar and was compiled jointly in May by Bloomberg and Novogratz’s investment fund, Galaxy Investment Partners. I use the CME’s Bitcoin Index (Symbol: BRTI) myself, and it looks brain-dead to me. I would turn quite bullish if BRTI were to thrust above the 8594.57 peak labeled in the chart (see inset), but until such time as that happens, I’m inclined to think it will dip first to the 4396.32 target shown in the chart before warranting our serious attention. ________ UPDATE (Nov 16): My dour outlook is about to give way to a new, bullish reality. For my reasoning, check out the commentary on this page under the heading Ruminations: Why a Hard-Core Bitcoin Bear Is About to Turn Bullish.________ UPDATE (Nov 20, 10:15 p.m.): Sellers crushed an important Hidden Pivot support at 4396 with rather more force than we might have expected, implying they are likely to inflict further damage before this vehicle can bottom.  A rally exceeding 4892 would turn things around, but failing that, BRTI could fall all the way to 2991, or perhaps 2601, before it finds traction. The latter number is a Hidden Pivot support of unimpressive pedigree; the former, a key low recorded ten months ago as bitcoin was blasting off.

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Tuesday, January 8, 2019

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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