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THE MORNING LINE
If I had to pick one chart that shows why the bull market is probably not over, it would be the one above. To be sure, the 157.26 peak recorded by Apple shares a month ago was a great place for an important top to have occurred; this chart shows why. But THE top? I have my doubts. For if this were so, it would rank as one of the most visually boring summits ever achieved. For permabears who have waited patiently for a fitting climax to the most most insane bull market of them all, it would be like finding a WaWa Market at the top of a Himalayan peak they’d almost died scaling.
Setting the Hook
A few forecasters had precisely predicted a potentially important top at or very near $157, including your editor. Some of us even profited from put butterfly spreads purchased a month earlier that more than quintupled in value with AAPL’s 12% drop so far. But it could be pressing one’s luck to hold out for more, since the downtrend seems to be struggling increasingly and made no progress at all last week. Perhaps the selloff will turn nasty in the week ahead. But if so, keep in mind that a plunge to the green line would actually be bullish, tripping a ‘mechanical’ buy signal based on Rick’s Picks’ proprietary Hidden Pivot Method. It would also imply an eventual rally to as high as 187.93.
This scenario is congruent with one I raised here last week — i.e., that the stock market will rally to yet one more record high, setting the hook in bulls and short-covering bears alike. A steep plunge in the weeks ahead would make a reversal to new highs even more persuasive, and therefore more deadly. Whatever happens, AAPL is still the 300-pound diva whose final aria will signal the end of the bull market begun nearly 13 years ago.
Bertie’s brutish poke through the 54,914 Hidden Pivot resistance shown here left little doubt about where its fat-cat sponsors are taking it next. Shifting to a bullish ABCD pattern of higher degree yields a 64,871 target that should be used as a minimum upside projection for the near term. The nasty C-D leg has yet to gift bulls with a ‘mechanical’ buying opportunity, so we won’t count on one. Trading interest has all but vanished from the chat room lately, but I’ll be around as always if you want to bounce a timely idea off me.
Our attention is wasted looking for this dog to break out, since it has been going tediously sideways since January. Hope springs eternal, of course, but we needn’t take unnecessary risks to indulge it. It’s simply a matter of when the chimpanzees agree that ‘value’ stocks should be in vogue once again. They’ll let us know after they’ve goosed it beyond easy reach, implying that the only way to get aboard is when it is going tediously sideways. However, the very rightmost edge of the chart — the last four bars, actually — contains the impulsive rudiments we would need
Gold’s pointless histrionics have been surprisingly tradeable, albeit only by Pivoteers who know what they’re doing. Notice how Friday’s stupid spike early in the session reversed from the secondary Hidden Pivot at 1782.70. Any rABC pattern one might have used to set up a short would have worked, although the pullback was so precipitous that executing a stop entry would have been challenging. Some subscribers may also recognize that ‘Matt’s Curse’ took effect when the reversal occurred precisely at p2. This usually means the retracement will take out the point ‘C’ low of the pattern. We shall see, but if
With trillions in reckless stimulus as a backdrop, it seems counterintuitive to speak of the dollar as being in a boring consolidation. But that’s what the long-term charts are saying. I’m a dollar permabull myself, since I see a deflationary endgame for the global financial bubble. But I must concede that if the Dollar Index is eventually headed to 120 or higher as I’ve been predicting, it is in no hurry to get there. The chart doesn’t give much support to dollar bears, though. The most bearish thing that could be said about it is that even though the greenback
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