Sunday, May 28               Published daily Receive a free trade each day
The Morning Line

FAANG Blowoff Makes a Tempting Short

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It will be more than a little tempting to short into a sharp rally on Friday, since the stock market, FAANG stocks in particular, feels like it’s in a blow-off phase. Factor in the impending three-day weekend and the always-menacing possibility of horrific news, and it’s worth a gamble to take home a few put options in QQQ or calls in VXX.  We already hold positions in both but will be bidding to augment them as the week draws to a close.

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$GCM17 – June Gold (Last:1257.80)

EST

Buyers were repelled today by the 1263.80 ‘secondary’ pivot shown, failing badly in their attempt to achieve the 1269.80 rally target that had  looked so promising at Monday’s close. The chart will likely have something to say about ‘Matt’s curse,’ whereby a stall exactly at the secondary pivot usually proves fatal to the minor trend. In this case, according to Matt, a regular in the Rick’s Picks chat room who trades mostly silver, it would imply more slippage to beneath the 1245.70 point ‘C’ low. That wouldn’t kill the larger uptrend that has been in progress since May 9, but it would certainly dampen bullish spirits for the time being. For now we’ll move to the sidelines, since the only opportunity that seems imminent would be a scalp-short overnight. _______ UPDATE (May 24, 6:03 p.m. ET): The futures rallied from a shallow hole today (click here for chart), seeming to dodge ‘Matt’s curse’ for the time being.  The rally is potentially tradable via ‘camouflage’, but you’ll need to zoom down to the 5-minute chart to find ‘external’ peaks suitable for this approach. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 12:58 a.m.): The June contract will need to pop above 1269.70, an ‘external’ peak recorded on May 1, to get out of  pussyfooting mode. Not that gold looks bad at the moment, but we should demand something more of it before we shift our attention in earnest to the 1311.70 target broached here earlier.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

BKX – KBW Bank Index (Last:89.24)

EST

Bob Hoye’s Pivotal Events, published every Thursday, is consistently one of the most insightful and well-written newsletters in the financial world — a great read that could be compared in quality only to Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.  Bob’s latest dispatch suggests that the banking sector is one of several key areas of the U.S. economy that could lead the next major stock-market decline. If so, the chart of the Bank Stock Index provides good reason for investors to worry. The index ended Thursday sitting at 89.24 (see inset), just above the 88 threshold that Bob regards as a crucial support. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, it would be speculative to conclude that a breakdown is inevitable. In fact, the bounce from the 88.53 midpoint pivot shown in the chart could be interpreted as a sign that the bull is healthy because the correction has stalled, and possibly is reversing, after having gotten only halfway to the 83.38 correction target. However, it would take a very powerful rally surpassing 97.07 to confirm this. That seems extremely unlikely to occur, especially with the housing and auto sectors already rolling over. Far more probable in my estimation is that BKX will soon fall decisively below the midpoint pivot. That would indicate more downside to at least 83.38, at which point we might conclude that it is game…set…match not only for the bull market, but for the still-struggling U.S. economic recovery.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.


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Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

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