Although our most important bellwether, AMZN, bucked a weak stock market yesterday with an $18 rally, it peaked an inch from a Hidden Pivot target that could contain bulls, at least for a while. Despite this, the breakdown of VXX suggests more wafting tedium rather than a dramatic selloff.
AMZN Flashes YellowPosted Monday, July 24 0 comments
$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:215.53)Posted July 23, 2017, 11:49 pm
$ESU17 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:2467.50)Posted July 21, 2017, 12:22 am
A rally with 40 points of potential — equivalent to about 320 Dow points — looms if the futures are about to fulfill the 2512.00 Hidden Pivot target shown. However, the move through the midpoint pivot at 2457 was labored, implying that a quick ascent to 2512.00 is somewhat unlikely. Accordingly, we should be ready for a ‘surprise’ reversal, which would begin to look menacing if it exceeds 2448.00 to the downside._________ UPDATE (Jul 24, 5:12 p.m. EDT): Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
$+VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:11.01)Posted July 19, 2017, 5:22 pm
We hold four July 28 12 calls for 0.34 apiece, having acquired them when VXX fell to a targeted all-time low at 11.72 earlier in the week. VXX, an equity vehicle created to facilitate betting on volatility swings in the S&P 500, has now fallen to within a few ticks of an alternative target at 11.27. However, the drop from the first target to the second occurred so quickly that I am no longer advising the purchase of more calls. Indeed, if VXX is going to pop, it’s going to happen now, from precisely this level, presumably reviving our calls with a vengeance. If there’s no bounce, however, the chart (see inset) shows yet another bear market target at 10.24 that would become our new, minimum downside objective. If it were to be achieved, the implication is that the S&Ps and other stock averages would be trading quite a bit higher than current levels.________UPDATE (Jul 24, 5:16 p.m. EDT): Sellers crushed the 11.27 ‘hidden’ support, pushing this vehicle below 11 for the first time ever. The clear implication is that it is now headed down to 10.24.
$AMZN – Amazon (Last:1038.48)Posted July 18, 2017, 11:19 pm
With no help from the broad averages, AMZN, the locomotive of the global bull market, chugged higher on Tuesday, demolishing a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1018 with ease. This implies the stock will reach a minimum 1083 before it hits solid resistance. Because it will have taken AMZN at least 17 months to get there, we should expect a tradeable and perhaps very significant pullback. In the meantime. we should also expect the broad averages to move higher as AMZN drags them in its wake. If the stock reaches 1083 before the week ends it would be a blowoff worthy of the name. Your trading bias should remain bullish until such time as the target is reached or the stock generates a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart._______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 12:01 a.m.): AMZN did in fact create a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, so the yellow flag is out. This is the first negative sign we’ve seen on the ’60’ since the stock pushed into record-high territory earlier in the week. If the selling continues, exceeding 1004.00 to the downside over the next 2-3 sessions, the recent all-time high at 1034.97 could take on new importance. _______UPDATE (Jul 24, 5:26 p.m.): Fall below 1004? What on earth were we thinking!? The stock swam strongly against the tide Monday, peaking with a $17 rally when the Dow was down more than 80 points. The 1083 target remains viable, but because the intraday high occurred almost precisely at the 1041.97 Hidden Pivot resistance of a lesser pattern (60-min, A= 1004.00 on 7/18), caution is still warranted. However, if the stock blows higher, 1070.64 (60-min, A=884.49 on 4/13) can be used as a minimum upside objective.
$GCQ17 – August Gold (Last:1227.50)Posted July 16, 2017, 6:03 pm
$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:123.33)Posted July 16, 2017, 6:03 pm
GCN17 – July Gold (Last:1216.30)Posted July 13, 2017, 6:41 pm
We’ve been using an 1194.40 correction target for a while, but today’s chart, a continuous daily, shows a bigger picture that is intended to ward off despair. First the bad news. The red abc pattern projects to as low as 1100.60, a $116 drop from these levels. That is my worst-case scenario for the next 8-10 weeks, and the odds of this target being reached would shorten if the futures were to close below 1195 for three consecutive days. The good news is that there is a much larger, bullish pattern that has so far prevented selloffs in 2017 from turning seriously ugly. The pattern projects to as high as 1452.60, but July Gold would need to rally decisively above 1288.30, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, to become an odds-on bet for a shot at that target.
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