Thursday, December 13               Published daily Receive a free trade each day
The Morning Line

Let Your Own Eyes Interpret This Chart


Although stocks have taken an unpleasant hit since early October, the market is not exactly falling apart. Let your eyes take in the big picture shown in today’s chart (inset). It wouldn’t be stretching things visually to say the blue chip average has spent most of the year in a consolidation, presumably biding its time until economic news turns more favorable. In the meantime, one could reasonably infer that shares have held their ground under difficult circumstances, including growing weakness in the housing, automobile and retail sectors.

If AAPL Goes Crazy…

Now try to visualize an imaginary price bar plunging well beneath current levels. It looks ‘wrong’ simply because the eye wants to create symmetry in the chart. In this case, that would mean more pooch-screwing price action similar to what occurred between February and July. While we have much more sophisticated techniques at our disposal to interpret charts, sometimes a visual first impression can give us a good sense of what’s on investors minds. That they have been conflicted during most of 2018 is obvious. But what seems equally obvious is that they may not be ready to send stocks into a fearsome plunge below 20,000, at least not yet. Accordingly, Rick’s Picks subscribers have bought a slew of way-out-of-the-money call spreads in AAPL for relative pocket change. I suggested this longshot bet in case Wall Street should do something really crazy and stupid before the year ends. It wouldn’t be the first time.

The foregoing goes directly against my gut feeling that the bull market is over. It also flouts a VXX chart presented here yesterday that suggested volatility is about to spike due to a plunge in the S&Ps.  Will the simple picture described above carry the day? We should know soon.

Rick's Picks for Thursday
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$AMZN – Amazon (Last:1663.13)


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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:169.09)


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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:2.856%)


Odds that long-term rates have made an important top increased with the recent plunge in yields beneath the trendline shown in today’s chart (see inset). The U.S. Ten-Year Note fell to 2.826% last week, down from a high a month ago near 3.25%. The decline narrowly missed exceeding a key low at 2.808% (#1) recorded in August, but if and when that happens it would generate an impulse leg of weekly-chart degree that could weigh on rates in 2019. And if the downtrend were to exceed two prior ‘external’ lows shown in the chart at, respectively,  2.759% (#2) and 2.717% (#3) without an upward correction, that would shorten the odds even further that long-term rates have topped.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$ESZ18 – DEC E-Mini S&P (Last:2664.50)


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$GCG19 – Feb Gold (Last:1249.30)


Gold continues to make headway in herky-jerky fashion, failing to fully satisfy bulls but also denying bears much to cheer about. On Monday, the February Comex contract rallied to within a millimeter of the 1240.20 Hidden Pivot target shown. The pullback so far has been mild, encouraging the thought that the next pop will be good for a ride to 1259.80. Another encouraging sign is that some recent ‘mechanical’ buy signals in gold vehicles, including one in HUI, the Gold Bugs Index, have been winners.  We’d sworn off this type of trade in bullion after getting stopped out once in the futures, but they seem to be working again. This implies that buying enthusiasm has picked up a little over the last couple of weeks. For your information, the February futures is currently on a ‘mechanical’ buy signal that tripped at 1216.80, stop 1202.40.______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 4:00 p.m.): The February contract climbed as high as 1255.80 today. Just a smidgen more! We want buyers to blow past that Hidden Pivot, since that would announce their intention to push still higher. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 9:59 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:96.64)


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$BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:4380)


Bloomberg news is out with a breathless dispatch tonight that suggests digital currencies have bottomed. If so, I can find no compelling evidence of it in the charts. Their expert is a guy named Michael Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs partner who likes the current look of Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index. It measures the performance of the largest cryptocurrencies versus the dollar and was compiled jointly in May by Bloomberg and Novogratz’s investment fund, Galaxy Investment Partners. I use the CME’s Bitcoin Index (Symbol: BRTI) myself, and it looks brain-dead to me. I would turn quite bullish if BRTI were to thrust above the 8594.57 peak labeled in the chart (see inset), but until such time as that happens, I’m inclined to think it will dip first to the 4396.32 target shown in the chart before warranting our serious attention. ________ UPDATE (Nov 16): My dour outlook is about to give way to a new, bullish reality. For my reasoning, check out the commentary on this page under the heading Ruminations: Why a Hard-Core Bitcoin Bear Is About to Turn Bullish.________ UPDATE (Nov 20, 10:15 p.m.): Sellers crushed an important Hidden Pivot support at 4396 with rather more force than we might have expected, implying they are likely to inflict further damage before this vehicle can bottom.  A rally exceeding 4892 would turn things around, but failing that, BRTI could fall all the way to 2991, or perhaps 2601, before it finds traction. The latter number is a Hidden Pivot support of unimpressive pedigree; the former, a key low recorded ten months ago as bitcoin was blasting off.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

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Tuesday, January 8, 2019

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

Most important of all, Rick will teach you how to develop market instincts (aka “horse sense”) by observing the markets each day from the fixed vantage point that only a rigorously disciplined trading system can provide.

The three-hour Hidden Pivot Course is offered live each month. If it’s more convenient, you can take it in recorded form at your leisure, as many times as you like. The course fee includes “live” trading sessions (as opposed to hypothetical ‘chalk-talk’) every Wednesday morning, access to hundreds of recorded hours of tutorial sessions, and access to an online library that will help you achieve black-belt mastery of Hidden Pivot trading techniques.

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