Rick’s Picks – Rick Ackermen

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:4.15%)

With TLT poised for a breakout, I’ve lowered my target for rates on the 10-Year Note to 4.094%.  The pattern is pretty nutty but still good enough for government work. That means D can be bought with a tight stop, using whatever vehicle you favor for trading the swings in

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$MSFT – Microsoft (Last:453.57)

The chart shows two invisible impediments that could trip up bulls this week. The first lies at 446.62, the D target of a conventional pattern begun from 400 in early September. The second is a trendline resistance from a head-and-shoulders pattern that will come in around 455. Together, these potential

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TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:94.36)

The weekly chart I posted last week set a high bar for bulls. I’ve downsized this week to the hourly chart, which shows TLT about to test the resistance of a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 94.64. The rally has come far enough since November’s sub-90 low to warrant the benefit

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$SIH25 – March Silver (Last:31.485)

Last week’s slight penetration of Nov 19’s external high at 32.03 was bullish, although not very. It generated a weak impulse leg on the daily chart that implies any retracement this week that holds above 30.095 would be corrective and therefore a ‘buy’.  A further push up to p=32.483 would

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THE MORNING LINE

The Herd Is Even More Fearless than in 1929

Skittish about the stock market’s manic climb?  Consider moving some of your savings into T-bills, which are currently yielding around 4.25%. You could do worse. Some of my friends are reluctant to take e ven a little money off the table because 2024 was such an incredible year for them.  One is a retired lawyer who racked up a nearly $500,000 gain in Nvidia.  She sold enough shares to buy a condo in Palm Beach, but her portfolio is otherwise unchanged and showing a return of about 40% for the year. She and her financial advisor are confident her portfolio will do equally well next year.

Both of my siblings had a similar experience, but they have since moved most of their nest eggs into Treasury bonds and bills.  It has been an extraordinary year for them, and for millions of Baby Boomers who owned stocks, real estate or both. Who could blame them for thinking that the bull market begun in 2009 might have another year or two left in it?

On the other hand, valuations are at their highest levels ever, and a real estate downturn seems all but certain because mortgage rates are stuck at levels too high to attract first-time buyers. And few would deny the stock market is out of its mind, a beast on steroids; we all sense this in our bones. Consider the way speculators have shrugged off ominous tariff news. Trump has threatened our two biggest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, with protectionist levies that would punish U.S. auto manufacturers in particular and cause grocery prices to surge anew. The President-elect also seems hell-bent on implementing immigration restrictions that would tighten the supply of workers, particularly for unskilled jobs.

He’s Bluffing, Right?

Toward the end of the Roaring Twenties, when Congress was debating passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, investors grew increasingly obsessed with headlines concerning the bill’s odds of becoming law.  When it appeared to pick up support on Capitol Hill, stocks would fall; but when the protectionists seemed to lose ground, shares would rise. This time around, facing tariff measures that make Smoot-Hawley look benign in comparison, investors remain not merely unconcerned, but giddy. Stocks rise on most days regardless of tariff news and despite the strident efforts of economists and editorialists to convince us that Trump is about to goad the world into a trade war. Investors must think he’s bluffing, and perhaps he is. If not, don’t be surprised to see the broad averages, along with Bitcoin, get nuked a few months after he takes office.

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