Since AMZN looks like hell and is acting like it wants to go even lower, I’ve switched to AAPL as my #1 bellwether. The stock has an unfulfilled rally target at 168.33 that lies $10 above current levels and still seems likely to be achieved. In any event, because of AAPL’s crucial importance to the health of the bull market, we’ll want to monitor its ups and downs very closely in the days ahead. At the moment, it would take but a $2.54 decline to seriously affect the bullish look of the intraday charts.
AAPL Is Our New TelltalePosted Tuesday, August 22 1 comment
$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:157.16)Posted August 20, 2017, 6:04 pm
$BA – Boeing Co. (Last:235.82)Posted August 20, 2017, 6:03 pm
Boeing accounted for most of the Dow’s gains in July, arousing my curiosity about how high this blowoff could go before bulls get their comeuppance. The weekly chart suggests 257.36 as a logical topping place (see inset) for this incredible bull run, which began in February 2016 from $102. This Hidden Pivot target is unlikely to produce the kind of penny-precise bullseye we’ve become used to working with, but it should serve adequately as a minimum upside target for the near term. If the stock gets there, the move would amount to an 8% gain from these levels. I won’t explicitly suggest shorting at the target, but we should keep it firmly in mind if BA’s ascent continues, since a reversal from there could cap the DJIA’s bull market as well.________ UPDATE (Aug 6, 6:30 p.m.): Boeing’s vertical trajectory suggests we might have success using a ‘mechanical’ bid to get long on a pullback to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 215.56. If it happens next week, it will be a no-go, but thereafter, the entry should be attempted and tied to a 201.62 stop-loss. We’ll figure out a way to cut the initial risk when the time comes, but the 257.36 target will remain viable in theory regardless of what kind of correction is about to unfold._______UPDATE Aug 9, 7:14 p.m.): The stock has sold off hard since peaking on July 31 at 246.49, well shy of my target. The correction looks bound for at least 230.98 (30-min, a=246.49 on 7/31), a Hidden Pivot support that you can bottom-fish as you please with a tight stop-loss. If the support fails badly, it would imply a move severe correction lies ahead._______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 11:20 a.m.): Surprise surprise. Boeing has taken a giant bounce to a so-far high of 238.88 after bottoming four cents from the 230.98 target flagged above. If you got aboard at the low please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.________ UPDATE (Aug 20, 6:05 p.m.): Boeing’s ability to maintain altitude with the broad averages falling is impressive. That it has done so with little apparent effort attests to the fact that those who make their living throwing Other People’s Money at a half-dozen stocks have resolved to hang together on Boeing. In this task they are supported by hubris from analysts and ceaseless cheerleading from the Wall Street Journal, which would have us believe that only blue skies lie ahead for this company over the next hundred years.
DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:216.53)Posted August 20, 2017, 6:03 pm
There’s no denying these are quite interesting times, in a Chinese curse sort of way. Only an asteroid on a collision course with Earth, or an ISIS nuclear detonation, could make the world seem any more interesting than it already is. Under the circumstances, it’s tempting to predict that, any day now, the stock market will recalibrate itself to the grim realities of a civilization in eclipse, and, more urgently, to a Trump presidency dangerously adrift.
With the foregoing in mind, I present today a chart that shows DIA, an ETF vehicle that tracks the Dow Industrials, rolling down from on high. There is a lot of white space below it, more than ever before, and that is what makes the chart seem so scary. Even so, you can see that all such disturbances in the past were ultimately resolved in favor of bulls, usually quickly. Perhaps that will prove to be the case this time as well.
I am watching AAPL in particular to keep me from hitting the panic button prematurely. The stock looks bound for a $168 target that lies $11 above current levels. Assuming it is achieved within he next 3-5 weeks — a prospect that I would rate a 60-40 bet at the moment — higher prices lie in store for the broad averages as well. Regardless, if the sharp selloff begun last Wednesday starts to snowball in the days ahead, sending DIA below July 24’s 214.68 low, we should brace for a possible avalanche. We’ll be watching the lesser charts in the meantime, so that it does not catch us unawares. We will also look to buy puts on strength, meaning not now, not yet.
$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:21703)Posted August 18, 2017, 2:17 am
The Dow’s intraday low on Thursday came within 0.22 points of the crystal-clear, 21750.54 target shown. I hadn’t noticed this because I don’t track the Industrial Average diligently, but it is surely worthy of our attention. If the Hidden Pivot support were to get trashed on Friday or next week, it would be the first time that an ostensible correction pattern of daily-chart degree had exceeded its ‘d’ target since May 2016. The bull market survived that one, but the Indoos were not in nosebleed territory at the time. They’ve got much farther to fall now, as you can see in this chart. The roll-down from way on high looks ominous, wouldn’t you say? ________ UPDATE (Aug 21, 11:45 p.m.): A strong rally wouldn’t undo the damage done by Friday’s decisive downside penetration of the 21750 target flagged above. The Indoos fared even worse on Monday, with a 21600 low on the opening bar (click here for a chart) that exceeded my bearish threshold by 150 points. The short squeeze that followed doesn’t look like it will get very far, since DaBoyz have failed for two consecutive days to extract much leverage from brazen shakedowns on the respective opening bars. This is the clearest bear-market action we’ve seen in the Indoos in many years. Generally speaking, corrective abcd patterns are not supposed to achieve, let alone exceed, their d targets in bull markets, but it has finally happened here. As a result. we should start taking technical signs of weakness more seriously than before.
$+ESU17 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:2433.50)Posted August 17, 2017, 6:25 pm
At Thursday’s close, the futures looked likely to achieve a 2415.75 downside target that I posted in the chat room at 13:27, when this vehicle was trading 30 points higher. The target, a Hidden Pivot support of middling importance, is sufficiently clear and compelling that we should expect to see a tradeable bounce from it. However, if the selloff is going to prove to be the start of something much worse, then the September contract should slice through the pivot as though it were not there. Let’s see how it goes before we rush to judgment. Regardless, subscribers who were short for the ride down based on my guidance can try bottom-fishing at 2416.00 with a five tick stop-loss. You’ll be on your own if the order fills and goes in-the-black.________ UPDATE (Aug 21, 10:42 a.m.): My target caught this morning’s low to the exact penny. Since we risked five ticks on the initial stop-loss, you should have taken profits on half the position, or two contracts, at 2419.50, 15 ticks above where we got long. At a current price of 2422.50, the position is showing a theoretical profit of $1075. ________ UPDATE (12:49 p.m.): Since several subscribers have reported doing the ES trade — my instruction was detailed, simple, explicit and also nailed the exact low of the day — I’m establishing a tracking position. For now, I’ll assume one contract remaining of an original four, with an effective cost basis of 2401.00. This includes a theoretical profit on two more contracts exited right now for 2427.50. We’ll swing for the fences on this one, so use a stop-loss at 2420.50 for now.________ UPDATE (3:20 p.m.): Lower the stop-loss on the ES position to 2418.25. If we exit there, the theoretical profit would be $850. _______ UPDATE (Aug 21, 11:58 p.m.): At a current price of 2433.50, the tracking position is showing a theoretical profit of $1600. For now, tie the single contract that remains to an ‘impulsive’ stop-loss on the 15-minute chart. That means you should exit the position if a downthrust generates a legitimate impulse leg on the chart. At the moment, that would imply an uncorrected move exceeding two prior lows, including one at 2428.00, to the downside. If you prefer to trade with a wider stop, use 2421.50 for now. So that I can continue with this tracking guidance, please report any action taken in the chat room.
$GCZ17 – December Gold (Last:1289.50)Posted August 16, 2017, 6:02 pm
Gold’s tedious shenanigans should not cause us to take our eyes off the little sonofabitch for too long, since we might miss something interesting. Like now, for instance. The December contact has mildly caught fire and is making another run at 1301.20, a very important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that has stopped promising rallies three times since April, including one earlier this week. This is a very crucial obstacle, since once decisively above it the December contract would be no worse than an even-odds bet to reach 1462.70. How decisively? Two consecutive weekly closes above the pivot would do the trick, or alternatively an intraday thrust exceeding 1325.00 or so. The chart (see inset) shows the whole picture, including the 1301.20 midpoint pivot that I have revised slightly upward from an earlier 1300.70.
$AMZN – Amazon (Last:952.96)Posted August 13, 2017, 6:05 pm
With respect to the health of the bull market, it is crucial that AMZN not start overshooting its correction targets, even minor ones. Today’s chart shows the stock an inch shy of that threshold. The 949.79 target, a Hidden Pivot support, slightly alters the one given here previously. In visual terms, although the support was slightly exceeded by Friday’s downtrend, the overshoot was within permissible bounds. But if it should be decisively exceeded Sunday night or Monday morning — a strong possibility if the crisis with North Korea escalates — that would hold potentially bearish implications for the stock market going forward. We’ll wait to see what the day brings, but please note that it would take a move above the point ‘c’ high of the pattern, 1031.99, to lift AMZN tenuously from the danger zone._____ UPDATE (Aug 15, 6:14 p.m.): After falling to within an inch of the 949.79 target flagged above, AMZN has rallied $40. It’s still not out of the woods, however, and there is nothing in the hourly chart to suggest the stock is about to blast off for new all-time highs above July 27’s record 1083.31. More immediately, bulls would need to push past the 1006.40 peak that I’ve labeled to suggest they’re capable of this. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 1:55 a.m.): If the stock finds no support at 951.01, it could fall all the way to 910.27 before getting traction. Here’s the relevant chart, with a correction pattern that uses some parts of an older one. _______ UPDATE (Aug 22, 12:07 a.m.): Monday’s weakness shortened the odds of a further fall to 910.27. Click here for updated chart.
$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:123.33)Posted July 16, 2017, 6:03 pm
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One Way to Tell Whether This Selloff Is the Start of the Big One
Calculating the Risk of War
Bulls Getting Smacked Down with Increasing Regularity
AMZN’s Message to Bears