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THE MORNING LINE
Investors took no discernible position ahead of the debate, allowing stocks to slosh around the whole day and to close near the middle of their range. Even if you could be sure of the outcome, how would you have bet it? The pundits seem to think Biden could benefit from low expectations if he gets through the evening with no serious mental lapses. But would that be good for stocks’ For America? Trump could surprise merely by being tactful if his opponent stumbles badly: “Senator, if you need a moment to compose yourself, there’s no hurry.” If Biden unexpectedly runs steady as a Dodge Dart on 84 octane, it could knock Trump off-balance. Anything more than a glancing blow might send the incumbent reeling. As entertainment, the best the audience can hope for is a lot of low blows and eye gouging. Moderator Chris Wallace, the Fox News personality least despised by his counterparts at CNN and MSNBC, has a chance to keep it clean. If he succeeds too well, perhaps Jerry Springer will have a turn at the next debate? Isn’t that what America has wanted all along?
December Silver’s failure to reach the bearish target at 21.50 shown in the chart is encouraging. The pattern is clean and compelling, if somewhat gnarly, and the target should therefore have been achieved if sellers had good command of the board. The fact that they evidently don’t is bullish by implication, and that means this rally is probably no worse than an even bet to probe resistance between $27 and $29 that accumulated over the last six weeks of summer. A pop on Thursday above 25.30 would all but clinch that scenario.
Gold wasn’t quite believing the weakness in the dollar or it would have racked up an even bigger gain on the day. Even so, each of the three upthrusts that occurred Tuesday exceeded a prior peak, refreshing the bullishness of the intraday charts and suggesting that higher prices lie ahead. By day’s end, the December contract had slightly exceeded a 1904.20 target I posted in the chat room. This was neither bullish nor bearish, but the so-far shallow pullback to 1899.60 is. Let’s see how bulls do over the next day or two dealing with thick supply between here and
The bearish pattern shown, with a 10,445 target, looks quite serviceable and should have worked perfectly. The trouble is, after tripping a theoretical sell signal at 11,413 way back on on September 6, the futures have spent three weeks avoiding the target as though it were a tar pit. It remains valid nonetheless and should work nicely as a back-up-the-truck support for bottom-fishing if hit on Monday. I should also mention that virtually every ‘mechanical’ short signaled on this chart since Sep 9 would have produced a profit of around $6500 per contract, albeit it with commensurate risk. The next
The burden of proof rests with bulls for the time being, since the rally from Aug 11-18 failed to surpass a distinctive ‘external’ peak at 44.18 (see inset). If the corresponding ABC downtrend were to play out, a touch at 42.48 would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short with a 37.64 price objective. This is blandly objective analysis, but I must tell you that I’m not thrilled with the prospect of shorting GDX, given the difficulties sellers have had pushing gold lower over the last two weeks. I’ll recommend watching from the sidelines for a couple of days, although there are always
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