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The Morning Line

Betting Against Yet Another Boring Friday

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There are several actionable trades in today’s list of touts, including one that goes against AMZN’s seemingly unstoppable uptrend. Although shorting the stock is always going to be tricky, for those of you who want to keep it simple I’ve detailed a longshot play in the chat room (at 23:50) that can be initiated with a simple limit bid for put options. It could turn out to be the fastest $260 you’ve ever lost, but that is the risk of what Rick’s Picks subscribers have come to call the ‘Friday jackpot bet’. We ceased doing them a while back because ‘everyone’ seemed to be betting stocks would go crazy on Friday.  They didn’t, and that’s one of the reasons VIX is in record-low territory. Could the pattern of boring Fridays be about to change? We could find out soon. _______ UPDATE (9:52 a.m.): So much for that theory. This is already shaping up to be one of the more boring Fridays we’ve seen in recent months….years. For the record, the trade in AMZN did not trigger and self-canceled a few minutes ago.

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:127.82)


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TYX.X – 30-Year T-Bond Rate (Last:2.78%)


I’ve called up a long-term chart for this interest-rate ETF today to show how yields on the 30-year T-Bond could fall to as low as 0.62% over the next several years. They’ve oscillated around 2.74% — the pattern’s midpoint Hidden Pivot — for nearly five years, but the thing to notice is that they breached that support twice decisively in the process. This is usually a sign that the trend will continue to the ‘D’ target with which the midpoint pivot is associated — in this case 6.24, or 0.624%. My hunch is that at some point the downtrend in yields will turn precipitous when all the bozos who have bought into the Fed’s economic recovery/inflation hoax have to unwind their huge mistake.  The move could steepen initially when it becomes apparent that the Fed will have to ease when the housing and auto sector downturns currently in progress turn ugly and threaten to send the U.S. economy into deep recession later this year.

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:146.39)


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$SIL – Silver Miners ETF (Last:35.23)


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Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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