Thursday, September 21               Published daily Receive a free trade each day
The Morning Line

Fed-Speak Translated into Plain Truth

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Talk is cheap, never moreso than when it comes from the mouths of the charlatans and quacks who run the Federal Reserve. Their latest “plan” is to start selling assets from the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October; tightening perhaps 25 basis before 2018; then tightening three more times next year.  Translation: We will initially unload whatever crap the traffic will bear, which could be zilch; we will continue to talk the talk as brazenly as possible, pretending that 25 basis points of alleged tightening every now and then constitutes real tightening; and, we will treat the recession currently gathering force in the U.S. economy as though it could not possibly happen. So let me repeat this yet again:  The economy and the stock market are a house of cards, and any significant “tightening” in the year ahead is therefore as likely as a Martian invasion.

Holiday Schedule

A happy new year to those of you who celebrate Rosh Hashanah. In observance of this holiday, the beginning of a ten-day period culminating in Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, I will not be in the chat room on Thursday. Also, my trading touts for Thursday (which are being prepared before sunset) and Friday will be scaled back. A normal schedule will resume Sunday night.

 

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Touts

$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:223.17)

EST

I don’t often use the 960-minute chart, where each bar represents two full days of price action, but I am doing so now because it offers superb clarity with respect to trend strength and price. Notice how DIA barely paused before shredding a 223.18 Hidden Pivot resistance Monday that we might have expected to act like concrete. This strongly implies that DIA is about to head even higher, presumably to at least D2=224.73, or to D3=225.71 if any higher. I expect these Hidden Pivot resistance points to act precisely, meaning easy progress through the lower would be reason for us to confidently infer that the higher is apt to be reached. Either can be used to lay out shorts stopped as tightly as 6 to 8 cents.

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:125.93)

EST

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:155.87)

EST

I’m as tired as you are of watching AAPL flail around, well shy thus far of a 168.33 target first aired here a while back. The target is still valid and is an important one, having taken more than four years to mature.  If AAPL is about to make a major top at that price as we’ve been expecting, then the bull market itself is close to a major top. I have expressed varying degrees of confidence in the target over the past few weeks, but lest you think me imprecise — or, heaven forbid, confused — today’s chart frames the question of whether AAPL will reach 168.33 in starkly empirical terms. Specifically, buyers will signal their eagerness for the (final?) ascent if they can pop the stock this week above the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 162.80. This is a relatively minor pattern, but it will give us a firm and precise handle on the strength of price movement within the stock’s typical daily range. Alternatively, a breakdown early in the week beneath the point C low at 157.91 would likely subject us to more tedium frustration, if not any particular certitude that the stock is verging on collapse.

Its balky performance of late can probably be attributed to the release of a $1000 iPhone. The hype attending this event, especially where it concerns the phone’s facial recognition software, makes clear that Apple is no longer the innovator it was under Steve Jobs. Some might even say they are clueless, unable to imagine the next big thing, let alone manufacture and sell it at a reasonable price. AAPL will hold no particular advantage if it enters the car business or makes televisions, and it’s quite possible its ‘brand’ will suffer in a comparison to that of Google, Microsoft, Amazon or Netflix.  Nor will its cult of buyers necessarily be willing to pay exorbitant prices just to own a iTV or an iCar. Also, the inevitable recession will put particular pressure on companies with a premium pricing strategy, of which AAPL is the most egregious example. All of which could be cited as possible reasons why AAPL is at, or very near, an important top.  If the stock continues higher anyway, it will be because the repatriation of some or all of the $250 billion cash surplus they hold overseas has gone into the purchase of their own shares.  I would have to concede at that point that Dow 30,000 would be a foregone conclusion. ________ UPDATE (Sep 20, 10:38 a.m. EDT): The stock is getting schmeissed today, down 2.71 and trading around 156. It would take just a little more selling today, exceeding 154.63 to the downside, to create a powerful bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart.

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$GCZ17 – December Gold (Last:1314.20)

EST

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$VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:41.58)

EST

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Tuesday, September 26, 2017

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

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