Wednesday, April 26               Published daily Receive a free trade each day
The Morning Line

Exploiting the Exploiters

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DaBoyz looked to be in good position to short-squeeze the broad averages higher for a second straight day. They must be pleased to know that they can nearly always count on short-covering bears to push stocks higher with far more power than mere bullish buying ever could. Check out the latest update to my VXX tout, since it contains actionable guidance designed to take advantage of this. The trade could return great odds if a moderate rally today sputters out around mid-session.

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$GOOG – Google (Last:872.30)

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$ESM17 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:2383.25)

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$GCM17 – June Gold (Last:1268.30)

EST

An upthrust today exceeding 1290.10 would put bulls squarely back in charge. At that point our minimum upside objective would be 1315.10, a Hidden Pivot taken from the hourly chart where A=1248.20 on April 10. Alternatively, if the futures fall for a second consecutive day, the first chance they’d have to reverse would be from 1267.90, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot. However, a decisive penetration of that support would indicate more downside to at least 1255.80. Traders could bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but I’ll recommend this only to those of you who have caught a piece of the short on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 10:54 a.m. ET): The rally from just beneath p=1267.90 will remain suspect until such time as it exceeds 1280.00

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$SIK17 – May Silver (Last:17.885)

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May Silver is correcting a rally to an 18.665 target that took ten weeks to reach, so we should expect the futures to take more than a few days to recoup their strength.  If not and they come bounding back to make new recovery highs this week or early next, that would bolster the odds that bulls are bound for the 22.644 target introduced here yesterday. In the meantime, we can use the pattern shown to project a 17.775 target for the retracement. If the futures instead were to turn higher without having gone below the 18.070 midpoint Hidden Pivot, and then rally to exceed 18.365, that would be extremely bullish.  I’ve sketched this hypothetically on the chart. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 10:47 p.m. ET):  Check my 00:28 post in the chat room for guidance on setting up a ‘counterintuitive’ trigger to get long. Ideally, it would come off a point ‘C’ low  in the range 17.750 – 17.765. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 7:56 p.m.): The correction continues with May Silver’s engineered plunge tonight on news that LePen had failed to capture the French presidency on the first ballot.  The Republic has been saved, at least for the time being but don’t think the clowns who have pulled the rug out from under bullion know any more than we do. _____ UPDATE (Apr 25, 12:01 a.m.): Silver’s recovery today was stronger than gold’s, ending the day with the creation of a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Overnight weakness could conceivably set up a ‘counterintuitive’ buying opportunity using any of three prior lows as point ‘A’, but the one shown in this chart is the only one I’m recommending for the job.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:121.47)

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Today’s ballistic move left our stingy bid choking on dust. It also tripped a theoretical ‘buy’ signal for the very major bullish pattern shown. With the steep rally of the last two weeks, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 130.61 has become an even-odds bet as a minimum upside projection. We’ll be following the move closely, looking for low-risk entry opportunities, since there’s a lot of room to the upside before this vehicle hits anything solid. For now, however, we won’t chase it, since a pullback when it comes is likely to be punitive. I’ve flagged the rally in today’s ‘Morning Line’ as signaling a possible end to the reflation trade. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 12:12 pa.m. ET): Look for the correction to continue to at least 122.27, or to 121.38 if any lower (60-min, a=124.24 om 4/21).  UPDATE (Apr 25, &;44 p.m.): Today’s selloff bottomed precisely at the 121.38 target I’d flagged above, allowing at least one creative subscriber to get long at the intraday low for a so-far modest profit. Now let’s see if TLT can get legs spring-boarding off this minor Hidden Pivot support.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:15.37)

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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:2.37%)

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Although interest rates on the 10-Year Note have receded sharply over the last two weeks, from 2.62% to 2.35%,  the chart makes clear that the pullback is merely corrective. That is not to say yields could not continue to fall significantly in the weeks ahead, perhaps by enough to bring mortgage rates down from the killer zone. I won’t make any immediate predictions because it will take at least four to six weeks before we can know with any confidence whether the upward skew in yields across the curve since last July, along with the reflation trade, is about to succumb to gravity. What kind of ‘gravity’?  Here I am referring to the drag of an economy that has almost surely seen a peak in real estate and auto sales. And we needn’t even consider the Fed’s rosy employment picture, since it is based on statistical fraud. As for the Trump rally, it took a potentially fatal body blow with Congress’ failure last week to repeal Obamacare. Bottom line: Expect the downward correction in long-term rates to continue well into April.

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Tuesday, April 25, 2017

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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