Saturday, February 24               Published daily Receive a free trade each day
The Morning Line

Mr. Market Seems to Be Cooking Up Something Special

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True to his diabolical nature, Mr. Market generated a potentially very important buy signal and a sell signal just hours apart on Wednesday. The latter was of somewhat larger degree, but either way, we’re likely to see a big move in one direction or the other, and soon. I expect to be able to make a clear call on this by week’s end, depending on how the E-Mini S&Ps act relative to bullish and bearish midpoint Hidden Pivots that lie nearby on their respective hourly charts. These are interesting times, for sure — you can feel it in the tempo of the news both good and bad. We could pray for a dull ending to the week, but I doubt we’ll be so lucky.

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$TBT – Lehman Ultrashort Bond ETF (Last:39.68)

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ZB – 30 Year T-Bonds Continuous (Last:143^01)

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$FE – First Energy (Last:33.03)

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$XLU – SPDR Utils ETF (Last:50.12)

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$GCJ18 – April Gold (Last:1330.30)

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DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:89.12)

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The bullish case has dimmed somewhat over the last few days, since DXY has begun to roll down without having exceeded the ‘external’ peak at 91.00 that I’ve labeled in the chart.  The intraday charts are another story and remain bullish, but a push above 91.00 would have made the bullish story far more compelling. On the 20-minute chart, DXY need only rally above 89.89 to somewhat revive the dollar’s spirits. In any event, and as always, we’ll look for the upturn on charts of smaller degree before we wax bullish again._______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:33 p.m. EST): The dollar got crushed after traders reconsidered their earlier reaction to a CPI number that was worse than had been expected. Now, if DXY falls beneath the Jan 26 low at 88.44, it would put an 86.27 target in play. _______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 5:07 p.m.): The marginal new low at 88.25 recorded Friday was just 0.04 beneath my original target at 88.29 and will have no significant impact on the dollar’s bullish prospects as described above. However, if DXY were to close beneath 88.29 for two consecutive days, that would suggest another bout of weakness is coming. Any rally will be just pussyfooting, though, unless this vehicle can pop above the 91.00 peak labeled in the chart.

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DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:25219)

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The Dow’s leap Friday well above an important prior peak and a major midpoint pivot (p) at 25047 significantly shortens the odds of a further rally to the 26734 target shown. For the moment, however, I’d suggest using 25,890, the secondary pivot’, as a minimum upside objective. If it’s hit by Thursday, or better yet exceeded, that would make additional progress to 26734 a lock-up as far as I’m concerned.  For trading purposes, and to sharply reduce risk, we can use the relatively short A-B segment begun 24490 on Feb 14 for entry set-ups. Stay tuned to the chat room for real time guidance on this if the opportunity beckons.

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$USH18 – March T-Bonds (Last:143^24)

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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:2.91%)

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Uh-oh. I’d said bond bulls would be in trouble if this vehicle were to pop above 2.57%, and so it has. It tracks interest rates on the Ten-Year Treasury Note, and signs are not good. On Wednesday TNX breached the key threshold mentioned above, putting a possible further move to 3.11% in play. The breach of 2.57%, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ resistance, shown as a red line in the chart, would need to be more decisive for me to rate a move to 3.11% as an odds-on bet, but I’d call it a near-certainty if the rally were to go just a tad higher, surpassing the key ‘external’ peak on the weekly chart at 2.615% without taking a breather. We’ll probably know soon what’s coming, but it’s hard to imagine how a U.S. economy so completely dependent on vast excesses of credit will function if this key rate is in fact headed to 3.11% or even higher. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:49 p.m.) Rates on the Ten-Year Note are climbing quicker than I’d expected.  They are bound most immediately for the 2.98% target shown, but even slight progress above it would shorten the odds of a continuation to the 3.11% target over the next couple of weeks.

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Tuesday, March 13, 2018

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