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The Morning Line

A Warning to Deflation’s Skeptics

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A recent Morning Line drew flak from one Rantly McTirade, a lurker who posts occasionally at Rick’s Picks under that pseudonym.  ‘Rantly’, while evidently impressed by the accuracy of my technical forecasts, took me to task for ‘mouth-farting’ and ‘pontificating’ about some of the big themes, most particularly a deflationary bust that I have long viewed as inevitable. I responded that if my 0.6% forecast for the long bond, for one, proves correct, he’ll be eating a ladleful of crap somewhere down the road. I got argumentative support from ‘Farmer,’ whose interesting posts in the  Comments section of Rick’s Picks have gained him a devoted following in that forum. Read his response to Rantly and you’ll understand why:

Your comment might be amusing McTirade if what was coming were not so damned alarming. You did however hit the key words “deflation and housing” and that’s where the most pain will be felt when asset prices begin to fall back to Earth once more. Sorry, but we are not at a permanently high plateau nor will prices just keep rising indefinitely. And yes, things are going to be just as bad as the deflation theorists have argued all along (if not a whole worse). This can be demonstrated with a number of charts but the one I will link is [click to continue…]

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$GCZ17 – December Gold (Last:1283.10)

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$AMZN – Amazon (Last:966.30)

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AMZN is nearing escape velocity from what had begun to look like a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern going back to mid-April. The stock tripped a theoretical ‘buy’ signal last week when it touched the green line (click on inset) and is now no worse than an even-odds bet to reach the red one, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1057.80 that’s tied to a target at 1182.70 nearly a hundred points above the old record high. We’ll use 1057.80 as our minimum upside projection for now, implying the broad averages will be moving higher in sympathy with the shares of the world’s largest retailer. _________ UPDATE (Oct 22, 6:30 p.m.): The stock looked like hell last week, but DaBoyz didn’t need it as they drove just about everything else skyward in a take-no-prisoners short squeeze. AMZN ended the week with an about-to-fail ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal, suggesting it wants to roll over. If so, a print to the downside exceeding 980.10 would energize sellers._______ UPDATE (Oct 23, 5:18 p.m.): The stock dove as anticipated (see above), somewhat exceeding a 963.36 correction target on the hourly chart (a=1010.90 on 10/18). We’ll remain on the sidelines for now, until DaBoyz have manipulated the stock low enough to go bargain hunting again. The head-and-shoulders pattern that had attracted so much interest has been stretched way out-of-shape and must now be regarded as an intermediate-term consolidation.

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:233.13)

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$ESZ17 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:2574.00)

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For eight-and-a-half years, all-but-insatiable buyers have munched through Hidden Pivot targets major and minor, trashing along the way every historically compelling theoretical obstacle that technical analysts could strew in their path. Most recently, NYSE stocks came within a hair last week of triggering Peter Eliades’ ‘Sign of the Bear,’ an  indicator with a perfect, seven-for-seven track record forecasting major tops. Instead, bulls rallied so strongly to end the week that, for all we know, the rarely flashed Sign of the Bear has been put in a coma for years to come. With the foregoing in mind, today’s E-Mini S&P chart posits a very major target 2868.50 that leaves plenty of room for the bull market to continue rampaging its way to a fitting and proper end. If the target is reached, the Dow Industrial, which settled on Friday at 23,328, would be trading more than 2300 points higher, at around 25,680.  Keep in mind that a nasty selloff to 2335.50 (the red line in the chart) would generate a ‘mechanical’ BUY signal, as would an even nastier fall to 2069.00 (shown in the chart as a green line).  Permabears be warned: If you are waiting for the stock market to fall apart, you may have a long wait.

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$IBM – IBM Corp. (Last:159.53)

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Big Blue’s impressive leap on Wednesday recalls the scene in The Natural where Roy Hobbs, putting a spectacular end to deep and prolonged batting slump, literally knocks the cover off the ball to give the Knights a walk-off victory. In IBM’s case, the stock jumped $15, to an intraday high at 161.23, on news that it had beaten estimates by a whopping two cents per share. More important was that the company foresees earnings growth following a five-year slog of declining sales. From a technical standpoint, the gap above the green line (click on inset) all but guarantees more upside to at least 172.08, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a large, bullish pattern with the potential to get the stock to 205.02. First things first, though.  The stock should be traded with a bullish bias until such time as it hits 172.08. If it pulls back to the green line in a way that meets our criteria for a ‘mechanical’ trade, I’ll signal it in the chat room and via an intraday alert.  Be sure to check “Email Notifications” on your account page if you want to receive these timely guidances.

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$NFLX – Netflix (Last:192.48)

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:156.18)

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:124.20)

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Tuesday, November 7, 2017

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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