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Rick’s Picks – Rick Ackermen

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Rick's work has been featured in



Bears’ Last Chance to Take a Shot? (See update for results)

Bears eager to get short near the top of the stock market’s inexplicable rampage could have just one chance left before shares blast off for infinity and beyond. This is the clear implication of the chart included with my latest forecast for the Nasdaq 100 (see below). On Tuesday the E-Mini Nasdaq futures peaked almost precisely at a long-term Hidden Pivot resistance located in a place that has been known to show magical stopping power. The futures sold off more than 4o0 points after touching it, but they recouped more than half of it Wednesday, showing no sign of fatigue at the bell. The 9604 high could conceivably mark the end of the vertical rally since March 23. However, if the June contract closes above the 9585  pivot for two consecutive bars on the weekly chart, that would make a run-up to 10,571 an odds-on bet. That is a little more than 9% above the all-time high at  9763 recorded in February, and it would make this spring’s sensational running of the bulls even more inexplicable and frightening. Although health officials are cautiously optimistic about a vaccine, Wall Street is quite obviously wildly optimistic. ______ UPDATE (May 28, 6:37 p.m. EDT): Subscribers in the Trading Room around mid-day could have jumped on a short I detailed explicitly in the E-Mini Nasdaq futures (see chart above). Check out my posts on this beginning at 12:26 p.m. if you want to determine whether you could have pulled the trigger. It occurred 21 points off the intraday high, just ahead of a 147-point plunge worth as much as $588 per contract. By the close, 75% of the initial position had been covered, with one contract remaining for a  swing at the fences. That was the purpose of this gambit, as the headline stated.

$GCM20 – June Gold (Last:1718.90)

June Gold trampolined off a 1683.10 Hidden Pivot Wednesday, enabling subscribers to get long in their favorite bullion vehicles at or very near the intraday low. I’d posted a heads-up in the Trading Room as the futures began their turn, noting that the 1683.10 ‘secondary pivot’ of a pattern that has been in progress for six weeks was a ‘logical’ place for a bounce.  The futures rallied $30 from an actual low at 1684.20, and although they are not yet out of the woods, the bounce has turned the hourly chart bullish and breathed new life into targets as high

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$+NQM20 – June E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:9434.25)

I sometimes joke that virtually every trading vehicle, in every time frame, whether trending up or down, reverses from p2, the secondary pivot, virtually every time. Or so it would seem. I was never really a p2 kind of guy, but my mentor, Ira Tunik, used it so often, and persuaded so many Rick’s Picks subscribers that it was important, that I eventually started to pay attention. That’s when I began to see that it actually does repel trends almost as consistently as my beloved ‘p’ midpoint Hidden Pivot. It has also become clearer recently that some of the most

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$CMG – Chipotle (Last:995.31)

Chipotle makes its first appearance here in more than a year. A subscriber had asked about shorting into the stock’s ballistic rally, but there are surely easier ways to make money. CMG’s ascent into hyperspace is right up there with Tulipmania in the annals of mass folly. Ironically, the stock’s bear market from 2015-18 was caused by two incidents where bacterial/viral agents had been detected in their food. Is business now better than ever, as the move into record territory would seem to imply? Hardly. It’s simply benefiting from investors’ desperate, heedless plunge into the shares of a relative handful

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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:1.26%)

I’ve revised downward to 0.26% my forecast for interest rates on the Ten-Year Note.  A 0.30% target given here earlier was based on an erroneously drawn pattern discovered by a subscriber. But could the so-far low at 0.39% have been the bottom, especially considering the power of the subsequent rally to 0.98%? It’s possible, but I doubt it. The pattern itself is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that the Hidden Pivot target will not merely be closely approached, but actually touched. This revised forecast will have no bearing on my forecast for a drop to 0.73% on the 30-Year

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