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THE MORNING LINE
Precise DIA Rally Target Made Shorting a Breeze
Regardless of whether today’s high turns out to be the mythical Mother of All Tops, it was easy money for anyone who initiated a short position in DIA as I’d suggested. Weeks ago, Rick’s Picks spotlighted what stood to be an important Hidden Pivot rally target at 280.88. When it was missed by just 0.04 points at today’s high, DIA subsequently dove to 278.78, equivalent to 200 Dow points, causing near-the-money put options to at least double in price in mere hours. The DIA rally target was offered as an alternative to one at 2128.50 in the E-Mini S&Ps, since not all subscribers trade futures. The latter had already produced gains of as much as $800 per contract on Monday for subscribers who reported taking a position. This could still turn out to be a major top, but even if the highs are marginally exceeded this week, I doubt the broad averages can go much higher. A nasty correction is long overdue, and this is a logical place for one to begin.
$+ESZ19 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:3109.25)
The futures topped three ticks from a Hidden Pivot target I’d been drum-rolling here for nearly two weeks. ‘Drum-rolling’ would be an understatement, actually, since it was more like a public relations campaign to drive subscribers’ attention to a trade that promised to effortlessly produce a low-risk winner. And so it did, even if only one subscribers — ‘Bachus’ in the chat room — reported taking action. Bachus has a very impressive track record — not only for turning my price targets into quick cash, but for doing so with enough street smarts and brio to improve on what I’ve
GCZ19 – December Gold (Last:1468.80)
The stock’s bounce from a 1447.50 correction target hit on Wednesday could have produced a gain of as much as $1000 per contract for subscribers who traded it. Those who leveraged the target appeared to have taken profits near the 1467.40 threshold where I’d said the rally would become a better bet. And so it has, mainly because the rally exceeded 1467.40 by two ticks, generating a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts. However, the futures have made no more headway, so we’ll have to wait and see what the new day brings. The chart shows at a glance
TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:1.933%)
Although some notable long-term bond bulls are close to throwing in the towel as U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, the chart suggests the bull market begun nearly 40 years ago still has farther to go. Yields on the long bond settled Friday at 2.41%, up from 1.90% in August, while T-Notes have gone from 1.43% to 1.93% over the same time. The rallies have been impressive if not to say scary, since they have subjected hundreds of trillions of dollars of borrowings to a deflationary turn of the screw. The burden of debt promises to lighten before it becomes
$GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:27.18)
We gutted it out last week to stay long through a swoon that left GDX little changed from a week earlier. The partial profit we took on half the position gives us 200 shares with an adjusted cost basis of 26.77. Friday’s punk performance lagged physical gold, which was up nearly $5 at one point. GDX never went ‘green’, but it is not likely sit still if bullion’s rally resumes or picks up steam in the week ahead. In any event, offer 100 shares to close for 28.60, o-c-o with a stop-loss on the position at 26.78. If GDX takes
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