Wednesday, November 22               Published daily Receive a free trade each day
The Morning Line

How High to Set Your Sights…

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Taken together, my latest updates for VXX, AMZN and AAPL imply that the bull market is likely to achieve significantly higher prices over the next 6-10 weeks. VXX has broken down and seems bound for depths that would have been almost unimaginable a year ago. If this volatility-tracking trading vehicle reaches the 26.32 target we’ve been using more than a month, it suggests a correspondingly enormous rally — with no significant corrections — in the broad averages.  My new rally targets for AAPL and AMZN are ambitious, but not quite fantastic. Check them out if you want to see what is possible as 2017 draws to an end.  (Note: Updates for Wednesday were prepared during market hours rather than after the close as is customary, since I’ll be traveling to Colorado later today to reunite with my sons for Thanksgiving.)

Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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Touts

$AMZN – Amazon (Last:1137.51)

EST

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$BA – Boeing Co. (Last:266.10)

EST

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$VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:32.12)

EST

Hard as it is to believe, VXX took a crucial step Tuesday toward a longstanding target at 26.32 that until recently had seemed as remote and inaccessible as a seashell lying at the bottom of the Marianas Trench. The relentless downtrend has been driven by an equally relentless bull market in stocks. The fact that the broad averages have not corrected significantly in years has sucked the marrow from VXX, causing the volatility trading-vehicle to implode over months and years, like a collapsing dwarf star. Based on today’s plunge beneath the pink line, a ‘secondary Hidden Pivot support,’ odds that the 26.32 target will be achieved are now no worse than an even-money bet. If so, it would imply that the S&Ps, and presumably other stock indexes, are bound much higher over the next 6-10 weeks. Since we only trade this vehicle from the long side, we’ll need to wait for it to achieve the target before we consider buying call options. For now, let it suffice to ponder the awesomeness of a bull market that has stretched certain technical indicators and cyclical benchmarks into another galaxy.

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:173.38)

EST

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$NYXBT – NYSE Bitcoin Index (Last:8238)

EST

Bitcoin has given dramatic new meaning to the word “swoon.”  Talk about crazy! The cryptocurrency has trampolined higher after falling 29% a little more than a week ago from the last rally top.  NYXBT now looks like a cinch to achieve the 8338 target given here last week — somewhat more quickly than I’d imagined. But if it trades more than $20 above that price intraday or closes above it, look for the rally to continue to at least 8620. That’s a Hidden Pivot resistance, and it is sufficiently clear and compelling that we should expect it to show precise stopping power. But just in case, I’ll leave room for a burst above it — to 8779.  The highest target I am able to project using the daily chart is 10563. That target will be precisely confirmed if NYXBT stalls precisely at an 8568 ‘Hidden Pivot midpoint’ with which it is associated. In sequence, then, there are five ‘hidden’ resistance points to which we want to pay very close attention: 8338; 8568, 8620, 8779 and 10563.  The best and simplest way to make hay with them is to apply this key rule of the Hidden Pivot Method: An easy move through a Hidden Pivot resistance is usually telegraphing a continuation of the trend to the next.

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$GCZ17 – December Gold (Last:1277.10)

EST

December Gold did something on Friday that it hasn’t done in a long while, exceeding two Hidden Pivot targets on the hourly chart without correcting.  One was minor, the other middling, but the implication is that the uptrend is a good bet to continue into next week. Moreover, the exhaustion of targets on the hourly chart will require us to shift to a bullish pattern of larger degree. It is shown in the chart (click on inset), with a 1315.50 midpoint pivot that can be used as a minimum upside projection for the near term. As always, an easy and decisive move past this key threshold would put the ‘D’ target — in this case, 1368.10solidly in play. _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 12:33 p.m.): Today’s gratuitously nasty drubbing has changed nothing in the analysis above.  If the weakness continues, however, touching 1269.80, that would turn the short-term picture mildly bearish._______ UPDATE (Nov 21, noon EST): Zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

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$CLZ17 – December Crude (Last:56.68)

EST

December Crude has shredded its way higher in recent weeks and is close to generating a powerful impulse leg on the weekly chart. That would occur on an upthrust exceeding the two labeled peaks, the higher of  which lies at 59.13.  Although my long-term outlook for this vehicle has been bearish, I would have to put it on ice, presumably for a long while, if the nearly-vertical rally begun in mid-October breaches the 59.13 peak. The closest Hidden Pivot, 58.93, lies just a tad shy of our uber-bullish threshold, but it’s hard to imagine the futures getting there without going the extra couple of inches that it would take for a breakout. Thereupon, my immediate objective would be 63.79. a Hidden Pivot off the weekly chart (A=37.33 on 1/22/16). _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:33 p.m. ET): Buyers would need to push the December contract above the 56.57 midpoint resistance to go back on the offensive._______ UPDATE (Nov 19, 6:30 p.m.): Friday’s spirited rally slightly exceeded the midpoint resistance noted above, shortening the odds of a follow-through to the pattern’s 58.33 target. A close above the p resistance at 56.47 on Monday would likely clinch this, but we’ll wait for it to happen before we draw any conclusions.

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$ESZ17 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:2575.75)

EST

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Tuesday, November 28, 2017

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

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