CLQ22 – August Crude (Last:104.91)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Sellers ran out of steam precisely at the 104.42 target shown in the chart. This implies the so-far one-day bounce could travel a bit farther or even get legs, since the pattern took fully two weeks to play out. I'd proffered a 105.52 downside target initially, but when it was somewhat exceeded, a new target was warranted. The one in the chart was calculated simply by sliding 'A' up a notch above the original one-off. Now, if the uptrend exceeds c=114.05 of the reverse pattern, we should infer 116.29 as a target.  Here is the chart from which it is derived. Please note that one coordinate was slightly off and that the corrected target, as implied above, is 116.29, with p=110.43. (I have not corrected the actual chart.) _______ UPDATE (Jul 5, 9:21 a.m.): Last night's vicious little head-fake above p=110.82 reminds me of NatGas, which is always out to cripple and maim those who are capable of getting the trend and the swings right consistently. In retrospect, and in this particular instance, this behavior justifies using an ABCD pattern anchored at 101.53, a 'marquee' low. It yields a D target at 117.08 that is about to become moot with a presumptive feint below C=104.56.  Incidentally, I am not buying into the bullish story that the resurgence of China's manufacturing sector is about to drive energy prices to the moon.

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:138.93)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

AAPL has been so quietly boring and  disappointing that one could almost forget that it is the most important stock in the world, a true bellwether for...everything. It's on a 'mechanical' short at the moment, triggered last week by a rally to the green line (143.27). It shows no eagerness to do the right thing by falling to D=117.87, but it's going to get there sooner or later. How can it be avoided with sales of the company's overpriced cell phones facing the deepest recession since the 1930s? There is mountainous supply every inch of the way above these levels, so it'll be interesting to see how the stock's evil-genius handlers hold it aloft for distribution.  The time-honored tactic in bear markets is not a lengthy slide sideways, but rather a nasty goosing of shorts just when things are quietest. Let's watch to see how they do it.

$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:106.49)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The dollar looks bound straightaway for the 106.49 rally target we've been using for the last month or so. I'd expected a correction down to the green line, but it was not to be.  Although my long-term forecast calls for significantly higher prices challenging peaks near 120 recorded decades ago, we should pay close attention to price action at 106.49, since this Hidden Pivot resistance looks sufficiently clear and compelling to thwart the dollar's strong ascent. I'll continue to track DXY in any event, since an increasingly strong dollar poses a grave threat to the global economy and financial system. ______ UPDATE Jul 5, 8:20 p.m.): Today's ballistic rally slightly exceeded the 106.49 target billboarded above. Given the way it speared p and p2, more upside to at least 107.57, (shown in this chart) over the near term appears all but certain. A question for the dismal scientists and pundits to ponder: How inflationary is a runaway dollar??  

Street Can’t Scare Up a Decent Bear Rally

– Posted in: Free The Morning Line

Bullish seasonality was at gale force last week, but just look at the tired chart! Is this the best that Wall Street's quasi-criminal masterminds can do? Have they grown so despairing that they can't even detonate a 100-point short squeeze when Jerome Powell is bloviating on TV? That was manifestly the case, and torpor could not have struck them at a worse time. With dark-purple clouds massing on the economic horizon, the securities world's thimble-riggers are in a bind, seemingly unable to rally stocks into order to dump them at brutally inflated prices into the hands of rubes, pensioners and widows. The window of opportunity for this is narrowing as economic signs point toward very hard times. Even so, triggering off a rip-roaring bear rally should have been a piece of cake, considering all the help DaBoyz have gotten. The news media, for one, is still playing along with the in-joke about whether a recession is coming. In plain fact one has already begun, accompanied by anecdotes sufficiently troubling to shame the Street's paid army of deniers, glad-handers and shills. Additional cover has been provided by stockbrokers and financial advisors. Observing a time-honored tradition, they've been telling clients to sit tight, since stocks, they assure everyone, are certain to turn around. Trusting clients will do exactly that, sitting on stocks until they finally sell everything with the Dow crashing below 10,000. Troubling Anecdotes Here are a couple of anecdotes that concern manufacturing bellwethers with global reach, Tesla and Boeing.  Regarding the former, a friend who owns Tesla's high-end Plaid model, a luxurious rocket-sled that can smoke a Lamborghini Veneno, was having trouble with a seat belt that wouldn't retract. His dealer said the electronic part needed to fix the problem was not available and simply gave him a brand new

$ESU22 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:3831.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Even springboarding off an engineered low in the first hour on Friday, DaBoyz were unable to achieve the modest red-line target shown in the chart. The thugs who work the night shift will get another crack at it Monday evening, or whenever it is that stocks re-open for a short while to avoid a legally forbidden four-day hiatus. I won't suggest placing any bets until we've seen how this bear rally does when pitted against the 3843.38 Hidden Pivot resistance.  As always, a decisive move past a midpoint would imply more upside to p2 (3894 in this case) at least, or possibly to D (3945). However far it gets, I seriously doubt this rally is destined for greatness. Bears will need to be on their guard nonetheless, since feel-good delusions from a celebratory Fourth weekend could persist into the new week. ______ UPDATE (Jul 5, 8;33 p.m.): Today's excruciating 'Braveheart' short-squeeze did not amount to much, even on the hourly chart. But it did breathe new life into this conventional, bullish pattern with a 3998.00 target. As always, it's all about how buyers handle p=3869.63, which has yet to be touched.

ESU22 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:3781.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The bullish 'reverse' pattern aired here last week served us well, taking the guesswork out of a rally that even at its nastiest was an easy read. The 3969 target can be used this week as a minimum upside objective, but also as a place to get short with the usual risk-squashing tricks if you've made some money on the way up.  Short-covering took a while to push the futures past the 3804 midpoint pivot, but once they broke above it Thursday night, the move became sufficiently decisive to turn 3969 into an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (June 28, 6:04 p.m.): Even though I'd drum-rolled expectations of a weak bounce, the one we got was even feebler than I might have imagined, falling fully 16 points shy of the 3966 minimum target given in the weekly commentary.  This is despite the fact that DaScuzzballs engineered a head-fake on the opening bar that exceeded the previous day's 3948 peak by a hair. The failed short-squeeze trapped bulls in a way that is not going to sit well with them on Wednesday, so don't expect a miraculous recovery. There is also a mountain of bad news weighing on the stock market at the moment, and the difficulty DaBoyz are having stampeding shorts implies another big leg down rather than a big bear rally.  _______ UPDATE (Jim 29, 9:16 a.m.): A chat-room denizen posted sentiment figures that put bearishness at its second-highest level in 35 years. I joked that perhaps this time bears have finally gotten it right, but that is most unlikely. In aactuality, it's hard to imagine a sentiment reading so extreme NOT producing a powerful short-squeeze rally. It's coming, so we will need to monitor the lesser charts closely to get the timing right. I'll suggest starting with this chart,

$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:2.89%)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Odds are shortening that an important top is in. Rates on the Ten Year Note have come down steeply since peaking on June 14 at 3.48%. That left a 3.56% target I'd drum-rolled unfulfilled, but we won't give up on it, at least not yet, since a a pullback to the green line (2.92%) would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy in theory. My trading bias was slightly bullish when the week ended, but a rally would have to hit 33.18, exceeding June 21's 'external' peak by a tick, to become interesting. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 6:15 p.m.): Rates have receded from their June 14 peak of 3.48%, adding weight to possibility that an important high has been seen. The downtrend would become impulsive on the daily chart with a move below  May 25's 2.71% low.

GCQ22 – August Gold (Last:1794.30)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Gold remains a study in disappointment and tedium. We've focused on a too-obvious pattern with a bearish target at 1756.90, and even shorted it on paper at 1851.20,  but with no great expectation of the futures getting there. Nor are they likely to achieve the very bullish, 2082 target of a much larger pattern any time soon. If you'd prefer to trade this vehicle nonetheless, try bottom-fishing in the range 1787-1792 with a 'camouflage' set-up using a chart of five-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:27 a.m.): The futures are in a presumably meaningless bounce from 1783.40. That's below my bottom-fishing range, which was tied to a p2 'secondary pivot' at 1788.30.  The $6 overshoot is sufficient for us to presume that the next leg down, if and when it comes., will be an even-odds bet to reach the worst-case, 1756.90 target. Ray-rah-sis-boom-bah, Gold! You go, girl!

SIN22 – July Silver (Last:19.61)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures tripped a promising 'mechanical' short on June 15 at 21.83, but we are just spectators, since no subscribers expressed an interest in the trade, let alone reported taking a position. The 19.64 target is valid and remains the worst-case scenario for the coming week, but it is no more likely to be reached than a comparable one in gold at 1756.90. You can try bottom-fishing at p2=20.37, which sits 5 points beneath May 13's important low. That would make it a 'discomfort zone' trade, and it can be snagged using a 'mechanical' setup on a lesser chart. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:38 p.m.): Shifting to the September contract, this morning's breach of an important hidden support implies more downside to at least D=18.96 (daily, A= 26.65 on 4/18; B=22.21 on 5/2). If that Hidden Pivot, too, is splattered, we would need to move A-B down to the next to produced a new target at 18.06, a p2 'secondary pivot'.

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:104.14)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The Dollar Index is working on a red-line 'mechanical' buy that was profitable the day after it triggered on June 16. The trade, which is predicated on a 106.49 rally target, is still in the black, but my hunch is that a better entry opportunity awaits when this vehicle falls to the green line, 102.80. In the meantime, although we hold no position officially, we can continue to monitor DXY closely for signs of presumably moderate weakness.

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