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Rates on the Ten-Year Note climbed to within inches of the 4.48% high recorded on March 27, but there is reason to doubt they are about to break out.  Specifically, the pullback from the high breached a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 4.35%, implying more slippage to at least 4.28% is no worse than an even bet.  Using the futures contract, traders can get short at 4.39% (interpolated) with a stop-loss at 4.44%.

These weekly commentaries have struggled to make sense of a world in geopolitical chaos but which is nonetheless transfixed by a financial melt-up that cannot end other than disastrously. Still more challenging is predicting the day-to-day effects on a stock market whose behavior is a perfect analog for acute, mass mental illness. By ascending without pause into celestial heights, the market is saying it doesn't give a fuck about the Strait of Hormuz, war with Iran, the AI bubble, Trump's falling poll numbers, Europe's decline into economic darkness, rising oil prices that threaten to implode the global economy, bloated earnings multiples, stubbornly firm interest rates, a big victory for Democrats in November, or a next round of inflation that will make what has occurred so far seem like just a warm-up. Bloomberg's Dart Board Concerning the price of crude oil, let me cut to the chase so that you don't have to waste precious time listening to some amateur on Bloomberg choke out dart-board guesses: NYMEX June Crude, which settled on Friday at 102.50, down 2.57 a barrel, is about to rise to 128.19. Furthermore, if it relapses to 91.28 in the interim, don't mistake this for a sign of respite; for in fact, crude would become a fetching "buy" there, predicated on an implied 40% run-up to 128.19.  While that might be enough to wipe the idiotic grin from Wall Street's face, don't be surprised if the broad averages seem to hold their own.  Whatever it takes to end the 17-year-old bull market is probably too terrifying to imagine. But the catalyst will necessarily be deflationary, since the bull market has been built on an expansionary mindset that has multiplied and rotated OPM into stocks that have faced little resistance. Insiders have finally begun to sell, and so should

The potentially important low I signaled a week ago caught the exact bottom of a powerful, $20 rally. It came within 11 cents of the 98.50 target for the June contract, then receded by nearly $6 to finish the week. Are bulls depleted? We may know soon, since, with moderate selling to start the new week, the retracement will test the 89.41 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a reverse pattern on the daily chart (a= 96.93 on 4/13). It should hold if Crude is going to challenge the spike high at 104.34 recorded on March 9.  Otherwise, a decisive breach of p would open a path down to at least 80.43.  This analysis should prove as accurate as the one proffered last week, since the patterns on the chart are equally compelling.

We caught a favorable breeze after getting long last week at 121.17, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the bullish reverse pattern shown. We seldom initiate 'mechanical' trades at the red line, but in doing so this time, we may have jumped the gun. The position feels a little precarious, so I'll suggest taking a profit on half when this symbol starts trading on Monday morning. Assuming GDXJ opens above our acquisition price, you should set a break-even stop-loss for the rest.  Odds are still in our favor, given the easy move through p on the way up, and also the fact that it has racked up four consecutive weekly closes above p since the red line was first touched. ______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 10:44): Exiting half of our long position at 122.86 on the opening yields a cost basis of 119.47 for what remains. Tie it to a 121.05 stop-loss for the time being.

Is there a tokenized investment in your future? With so many white elephants to unload, Wall Street's rep could come calling on you at any time. He will offer you a virtual piece of America's future, claiming it will grow wealth for your children and grandchildren. However, when you sit down with this cheery fellow to go over the fine print, just remember that his brain is nearly identical genetically to that of the seagull that swoops down on your lunch at a seaside café. And exactly which piece of the rock will your hard-earned dollars secure? Almost certainly, the pitch will feature commercial real estate or AI infrastructure. The latter will include not only huge power plants and water coolers, along with acres of computers, but all the hot air exhausted by a Billionaire Boy's Club that has been hustling some of the most ambitious projects the galaxy has ever seen. Hot Air for Sale Obsolete skyscrapers and AI's overhyped revenue potential are the chief sources of anxiety in banksters' portfolios these days, with notional sums at risk of perhaps $20 trillion or more, and growing. All of it has been financed to colossal excess by banks that have grown understandably eager to spread the risk onto rubes like you and me. Voila, the tokenized investment! That's why tokens were invented: to divvy up epic chunks of glitz into a million pieces small enough for the little guy to get in on the action. He needn't worry about being shut out, since the deals just keep coming. So greedy and stupid are the lenders that they are still hatching galactically large projects even as warning signs flash red. Oracle's partnership with OpenAI, for instance. This gambit is slated to launch in 2027 at a value of $500 billion. The

You can hardly blame Trump for playing up the stock market's spectacular performance whenever anyone challenges the way he is conducting the war, or claims the jihadists are winning. Even in the editorial rooms of the New York Times and Bloomberg, where a virulent strain of Trump Derangement Syndrome still lingers, news editors are finding their caustic opinions overwhelmed by the bullish tide -- make that, tsunami -- on Wall Street. Although details of a cease-fire have yet to be worked out, never mind the terms of a peace agreement, stocks have exploded into their steepest rally ever, recouping five months' worth of steady losses in just 17 days, while racking up gains during that period equal to the amazing, six-month bull run-up of 2025. Can tens of millions of investors be wrong? Or is genuine peace about to break out, as Trump would put it, like nothing the world has ever seen before? To answer that question, harken back to an iconic graffito from the 1970s: "Eat Shit! Can a hundred trillion flies be wrong?" If you fail to see the connection, let me spell it out: A superheated stock market is the last place everyone should look for evidence that all is right with the world. Moreover, Trump's eagerness to direct our attention that way makes it even more foolhardy. Bipolarity's Sweet Spot Why? Because the stock market is a rabid beast whose mood swings have always ranged between reckless exuberance and suicidal despair. Within the broad middle of this bipolarity, it acts like a giant carnival midway, hyped by barkers who use 'research' to support extremes of overvaluation that currently make the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s look like a shingles-and-siding hustle. Moreover, the rally's aberrant strength suggests it is driven mainly by a short-covering panic

I won't go into the somewhat subjective reasons, but the inset chart is unconvincing regarding whether crude is headed significantly higher, possibly reaching the 134.08 target shown. I had assumed this was possible, but my job is to determine whether it is likely. To better judge the odds, I'm going to use a downtrending, conventional ABC that begins with the 117.63 peak recorded last Tuesday. It projects a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 89.41 and a D target at 76.12.  Since these Hidden Pivots align closely with the green and red lines in the chart, we'll use them alongside the specific numbers provided in this tout to get an accurate read on trend strength, both dominant and corrective.  The futures have already signaled a drop to p=89.41, but a decisive overshoot would lend a little weight to the not-crazy-bullish case.  If they continue to fall, exceeding D=76.12, that will significantly diminish the chance we'll see new highs above 117.63.  For the record, a fall to the green line (x=90.25) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, with a stop at 75.63. I am recommending the trade only to ace Pivoteers, however.

GDXJ popped last week to within an inch of a longstanding target at 133.49, and although it did not quite reach it, price action was sufficiently robust to imply that a new, more ambitious target at 139.49 is now likely to be achieved. It is derived from a lower point 'a' within a larger structure that allows running room to as high as 150.33. First things first, however, so we'll keep our focus on the pattern shown for trading purposes. I don't often recommend 'mechanical' buying at the red line, here 121.17, but in this case it looks worth a try.  A 115.07 atop-loss would apply. _______ UPDATE (Apr 17): Bulls achieved solid gains last week, although without dipping to our niggardly bid at 121.17. The forecast provided above remains viable.

It is neither bulls nor bears who move the markets, but crooks, mostly. Spectacular but fleeting rallies draw nearly all of their buying power from panicky short covering that is easily triggered and deftly harvested. I have previously discussed this phenomenon, which is most visible when stocks take unseemly leaps at the opening bell. Although few shares will have changed hands in the gaps this creates on charts, it effectively fattens the bank accounts of everyone who held stock before the leap. How do the thieves (aka 'broad-tossers'; see photo above) who control the markets do this trick? First, in order to deplete sellers, they pull their bids in the wee hours of the morning. When there is no news of special interest, stocks will tend to drift lower, especially if there are no significant buyers on the way down. The trend will begin to feed on itself as shareholders grow uneasy. If Wall Street's Wharton-educated crooks have orchestrated the heist properly, a selling crescendo will cause stocks to bottom about 30 to 60 minutes before the start of the regular session. Then, with sellers exhausted and no offers in sight, it is bears who will start to grow anxious.  Their increasingly urgent bids to close out short positions will continue to accumulate as the opening approaches. It is then that the Masters of the Universe, mainly specialists licensed to maintain orderly markets, but also to steal from amateurs, will spring the trap, pulling their offers to reset prices to a level that can satisfy pent-up demand. That price will often be well above the previous day’s close. Voila! Instant new $$ billions for the white-collar carnies who operate the world's bourses.  Why Stocks Idled The foregoing helps explain why stocks did nothing on Friday. Until a few months ago,