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Although my deflationist outlook has kept me bullish on the dollar for decades, the two charts shown in the inset suggest that the greenback's implied surge to punitive heights - for debtors -- lies well down the road. It also seems doubtful that this will occur simultaneously with a leap in rates on the 10-Year Note, since they could not likely exceed the 5% heights achieved last October without sending the global economy into a tailspin. More likely is that the dollar will strengthen with real rates falling. For now, though, expect DXY to continue scuddling sideways between 100 and 110.

May Crude didn't pull back nearly enough last week to fill the 'mechanical' bid I'd suggested. It still looks bound for an all-but-certain rendezvous with the 88.69 Hidden Pivot target shown. Although the rally stalled for a while precisely at the 78.85 midpoint resistance, once the futures finally got past it, there was no stopping or even slowing the ascent.  A move to the target would exceed the 88.31 peak recorded in June 2022, creating a fresh impulse leg of monthly-chart degree. $100 crude, anyone? _______ UPDATE (April 6): The May contract shredded its way past p2=83.77, the secondary Hidden Pivot shown in this chart, all but guaranteeing the target will be reached. The stock market's heedless ascent as soaring energy prices threaten to kick inflation back into overdrive ranks right up there with the crazed exuberance of the summer of 1929. 

There are no fewer than four bullish patterns at work in the chart shown, so I've settled on the one with the most ambitious rally target. It lies at 5399.75, and it is jumping the gun to assure you the futures will get there before they have even touched the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=5331.38), it seems safe to assume that bulls are not likely to be thwarted. A moment's pause could be fatal to the psychotic energy that has impelled the broad averages heedlessly higher, even as 'bubble' warnings have begun to pop up even in the WSJ and at Bloomberg.com.  As always, the ease with which buyers penetrate p the first time they encounter it will tell us all we need to know about trend strength. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 9:38 a.m.):  Here's something we've seen only very rarely in the last 15 years, and not at all during the psychotic, suck-everyone-in phase of the bull market begun last October: a bullish pattern that aborted without having reached p, never mind D.  The implications are of course bearish, at least for the near term. I take them seriously because MSFT never got more than a few pennies above the 430.58 high I've been saying since last January would mark the end of the bull market. We shall see.

The 'mechanical' buy that triggered when MSFT fell to the green line last Thursday was about as 'textbook' as they come, meaning it is all but certain to deliver a profit unless truly dreadful news greets stocks when they begin to trade Sunday evening. Acting on the signal by purchasing call options would have been a non-starter, however, since fully four days will have elapsed if the stock begins to move as early as Monday. That's why we should never purchase options just ahead of a long holiday weekend. Perhaps another opportunity will arise this week ahead of the stock's presumptive ascent to D=439.35. Stay tuned to the chat room and your email 'Notifications' to keep apprised. And, yes, this does mean my longstanding, ostensibly major target at 430.58 has been diminished by the certitude that a higher target of lesser degree will be reached. _______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 11:13 a.m.): Today's so-far moderate selloff has brought the stock down to the green line for the second 'mechanical' buy signal in three days. The first produced a one-level profit, but we'll be keenly interested to see whether this signal delivers as well. It would be unusual for so well-formed a pattern to fail to reach its D rally target -- in this case 439.35. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:48 a.m.): Microsoft has triggered a third 'mechanical' buy this morning since correctively bottoming at 412.79 three weeks ago. Ordinarily, the signal's usefulness degrades with each repetition, and so I am not suggesting that you jump on this 'sloppy thirds' opportunity. However, it will be interesting to see whether the stock fails to achieve a hat-trick of 'mechanical' winners.  This would be rare for the stock, which has notched precious few lower lows over the last several years without having completed a

Last week's tedious grind eked out only a minuscule gain, but that will have little bearing on the still-strong likelihood of the 27.34 target being reached. A pullback to the green line (x=23.47) would trigger a high-caliber 'mechanical' buy, but it seems unlikely that Mr. Market will gift us with such a succulent opportunity. There will always be opportunities to get long intraday, however, so you should stay close to the chat room and your email Notifications if this vehicle interests you. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 10:36 a.m.): Two powerful upthrusts have brought May Silver within easy distance of the 27.34 target. If it is easily penetrated, expect more upside to 27.55, a more daunting Hidden Pivot resistance (Daily, A= 21.24 on 3/8). 

The steep rally since early March has alleviated the stinginess of the overall pattern, which remains bullish nonetheless. It projects to at least 42.10 and should be considered reliable for trading purposes. That is notwithstanding mid-February's dip into deep water in the weeks that followed the triggering in January of a 'mechanical' buy at the green line. My hunch is that GDXJ will ultimately push past 42.10, breaking free of a consolidation zone that will have persisted for two years.

The 'mechanical' trade that triggered three weeks ago with a drop to x=93.40 has survived a brush with death that saw it fall to within an inch of being stopped out below C=92.01 of the pattern shown. Since then, TLT has achieved a solid gain following a theoretical 'mechanical' entry at the green line. A further run-up to D=97.58 looks like no worse than an even bet at this point, but we'll wait to see more price action at the red line before we attempt to winnow down the odds.  Should I keep this symbol on the core list?  WordPress failed to publish the TLT tout I'd prepared last week, but no one noticed it, including me. ______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 10:52 a.m.): Two huge gaps to start the week have put TLT in a freefall. This morning's moderate  bounce has come from within a hair of a crucial Hidden Pivot target at 91.20, but if it fails, look out below!

[My colleague Charles Hugh Smith is a true outside-the-box thinker who tackles big questions with intellectual rigor and bold imagination. In the commentary below, he explains why neither our political system nor technological wizardry have been able to solve problems that threaten to topple the global economy and destroy our quality of life.  You can support excellence by subscribing to his blog, Of Two Minds, on Patreon.  RA] We say we want solutions, but we actually want a specific subset of solutions: those that already meet with our approval. The possibility that none of these pre-approved solutions will actually resolve the problem is rejected because we are wedded to the solutions that we want to work. The sources of our resistance to admitting that our solution is now the problem are self-evident: holding fast to an ideological certainty gives us inner security, as it provides a simplified, easy-to-grasp frame of reference, an explanation of how the world works and a wellspring of our identity. Our ideological certainties also serve as our moral compass: we believe what we believe because it is correct and therefore the best guide to solving all problems faced by humanity. If we frame all problems ideologically (i.e. politically), then there is always an ideological "solution" to every problem. If we frame all problems as solvable with technology, then there is always a technological "solution" to every problem. If we frame all problems as solvable with finance, then there is always a financial "solution" to every problem. In each of these cases, we're starting with the solution and then framing the problem so it aligns with our solution.  This is not actually problem-solving, and so the solutions--all blunt instruments--fail to actually resolve the complex, knotty problems generated by dynamic open systems with interconnected feedback loops. Self-interest also

The futures missed the 5326.25 rally target last week by 3.50 points, denying us the fruits of a precisely crafted entry trigger but effectively fulfilling the target. It took a month to achieve, so we should expect any correction from these levels to last for at least 5 to 8 days. Any less would suggest bulls are all-too-eager to cut loose. If so the 5428.25 target displayed above this week's commentary can be used as a minimum upside projection. It is just a 2.6% romp from Friday's close.