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I've set a high bar at 4403.70 to signal the possible end of a bear market that began in January, when the August contract hit a record 5700.  Otherwise, we should expect the weakness to continue at least until the 3793.40 target shown in the inset is achieved. There are two more Hidden Pivot supports you should be aware of, since either is capable of reversing the trend at least temporarily:  3822.70, the target of a smaller pattern that was featured here last week; and 3603.40, a worst-case projection derived from sliding 'A' up to the 5513.00 'marquee' high recorded on March 2. Of the three possibilities, I favor 3793.40, which is why I have boldfaced it. The other two will work well for careful bottom fishing, however. _______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 3:08 p.m.): Gold spent the entire week trading inside the previous week's range, so there is no change in my forecast. ______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 12:35 p.m. EDT): The action has shifted to the December contract, so I will start tracking it in this update. The pattern shown in this chart suggests it is headed down to 3876.10, a back-up-the-truck number. The pattern is too obvious to work precisely, but it is sufficiently compelling for us to infer that a tradeable upturn is very likely to occur at or very near 'D'.  Because the flirtation with p=4169.60 has been a vague, meandering affair rather than the impalement we look for, there can be no guarantees that D will be reached. If the futures are in the process of reversing from p2=4022.90, they will signal it definitively with a move above two 'external' peaks, the second of which lies at 4298.60 (June 21). 

Although buyers did not quite impale the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 79.37 on first contact, they broke free of its gravitational pull with sufficient force on Friday to all but ensure more upside to at least p2=85.53, or more likely to the d target at 91.69. Traders, and even the hacks who invent 'the news,' have learned by now to tune out any suggestion emanating from on high that crude oil markets will return to normal any time soon. The August contract will offer an enticing short at the target, but it should be traded from the long side until the target is reached. Does that imply some breakthrough in the war is at hand? We may have an answer before August.

The bull is taking its time consolidating for an upthrust to the 4.82% target shown in the chart. The process could include a dip to x=4.48% that would trigger a theoretical buy signal. Although we do not actually trade this vehicle, such a signal could be easily leveraged using TLT or T-Bond futures. But it is more the implications that interest us, since higher rates will tend to make nearly every economic challenge each of us faces more difficult to cope with. Gold will remain under pressure, and many tens of trillions of dollars of debt reckoned in dollars will grow more costly for borrowers to service. Imports would be cheaper, but the relief that would bring to beleaguered consumers would be negligible compared to so many other factors that have been making life increasingly expensive.  Our new Fed chairman thinks inflation might be moderating, but he knows a good deal less about this than a housewife tending to the needs of a family with children.

The futures ended the week on a tempting buy signal that was best ignored, since it is impossible to predict on a Friday what fresh hell Sunday's news might bring. The headlines were decidedly bearish in producing Thursday's overnight cascade: crude prices were up nearly 4%, Xi Jinping was boasting of China's supposed answer to Anthropic, and a SpaceX rocket ship failed to get airborne. Stocks did not so much shrug off this news as leverage it to spring a weak bear trap.  The short-covering Whoopee Cushion that resulted culminated in the buying temptation noted above.  Now, the futures will either leap to the 7573.50 target, or at least to p=7523.25; or more likely in my view, stop out the trade and continue down to late-June's lows near 7350. Stay tuned to the chat room for ringside commentary as events reveal the nature and purpose of Mister Market's deceptions.

Last week began with a doomed two-day rally that left our 82.46 target unchanged. It has now been five months since shorting an upthrust proved to be a bad bet, and that will probably hold true at least until GDXJ finds a bottom at or near our target. It is a Hidden Pivot support too compelling to simply give way. It is also commensurate with a 3630 target I've provided for August Gold where a significant bullish reversal seems most likely to occur. Alternatively, we'll set the bar at 120.06, just above an external peak recorded on May 29, to alert us to the possible ending of the bloodletting. _______ UPDATE (July 25): Unlike gold and silver futures, GDXJ rallied last week to create an impulse leg on the hourly chart. I suspect this is a false alarm, but we'll give it the benefit of the doubt for now. The rally would gain credibility if and when it vaults the midpoint resistance at 101.55 and then goes on to trash D=107.22. We'll monitor these obstacles closely, since a move through them has the potential to lead a similarly bullish move in gold.    

A two-day surge pushed rates on the Ten-Year past three prior peaks, two of them daunting 'externals'.  This amounts to a quite powerful impulse leg, presumably with enough power to challenge the 4.69% high recorded in mid-May.  The usual gallimaufry of 'scholars' will debate how many Fed governors can dance on a cow pie, but that won't alter the fact the market forces are putting significant upward pressure on Treasury yields.  The short-term technical picture suggests they will reach a minimum 4.73% over the next 2-3 weeks, but 4.82% is possible,

Last week's strong two-day rally generated a lot of bullish talk, but from a Hidden Pivot standpoint it merely triggered an enticing 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=73.44). The position was theoretically profitable when the week ended, since the futures were trading $2 below the entry point and nearly $7 from the 78.15 stop-loss.  There are no guarantees the downtrend will reach D=59.35, since sellers have still yet to decisively penetrate the midpoint support (p=68.75). But the hypothetical trade looks likely to produce a profit with a dip to at least p, or even p2=64.05. _______ UPDATE Jul 14, 8:43 a.m. EDT):  The futures this morning have fist-pumped through a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 79.37 associated with a D target at 91.69. Looks like July/August is unlikely to be Trump's -- or anyone else's -- best month.

I'm taking an extended break from the daunting challenge of predicting the stock market's behavior each week as though it were correlated rationally and logically with events in the real world. My weekly commentaries will resume when I am feeling better up to the task.  In the meantime, if you need a regular dose of Rick's Picks, don't pass up a free opportunity to use and enjoy all of the site's amenities, including the Trading Room, the heart and soul of my service. Its purpose is to help investors make money, a goal it achieves so consistently that gifted traders from around the world like to hang out there. The photo above shows Venezuela's Angel Falls, the world's highest waterfall and a good metaphor for my outlook on the stock market.  Finally, here's a link to my latest rant at This Week in Money on July  2.  [Note: This link will change to present fresh material every other week.]

Yields on the Ten-Year Note ended the week just beneath a Hidden Pivot resistance at 4.49%, but the damage had already been done with the slight penetration of the resistance earlier in the session. If the rate had settled above it for a second consecutive day, I'd have shortened the odds of a further run-up to the 4.75% target to even money. As things stand, I'll use a voodoo # at 4.62% as a minimum upside target for the near term. We'll be better able to assess the odds of new highs at that time.