Friday’s powerful thrust was global, and it put rates on the U.S. Ten-Year note on course for a run-up exceeding 5%, the highest they’ve been in nearly two decades. It is market forces that are driving the rise of yields, and although Trump may be able to convince some that the consequences will be short-lived, this can only create a credibility problem for him as mortgages head toward 7%, or perhaps even higher. The highest 10-Year rate I can project beyond the 5.09 ‘D’ shown in the chart is 6.075 on the monthly (A=2.52 in Aug 2022). That would be hard to square with the very deep recession that would occur long before it costs The Guvmint (i.e., taxpayers) that much to borrow.
$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last: 4.59%)
Posted on May 17, 2026, 5:22 pm EDT
Last Updated May 16, 2026, 3:32 pm EDT