The thieves, hustlers and arse-bandits who manipulate global oil markets for a living are working ‘news’ of an imminent peace deal for all it’s worth, pulling the July contract down as much as $6, or 6%, on this evening’s opening bar. The news itself is the usual Trump blather about how ‘close’ a deal is, but with enough wiggle room to let the geopolitical world simply shrug it off when nothing happens. The markets have been all opportunism and zero fear lately, screaming higher when oil prices are steady-to-lower, but remaining flat or falling only slightly when oil prices are rising.
I’ve offered a bet in the chart room via a 92.77 trigger for the July contract. The trade was recommended for Hidden Pivot aces only (aka ‘Pivoteers’), since a ‘camo’ entry set-up is needed to avoid the $6,650 entry risk implied by a conventional stop loss at 86.13. The order would have filled easily on the opening bar and is presently somewhat in-the-red if executed conventionally. This is a one-level play, predicated on an exit at 99.41. However, any remaining contracts held for a swing at the fence should use a target of 112.29. That’s substantially lower than the 120.62 target we used for the June contract, the difference being accounted for by respective B and C coordinates that are significantly lower.
The smallest rABC camo trigger available can be found on the 3-minute chart at x=91.46, where a=91.36 at 18:12. Half would have been covered at 91.68, and 25% more at 92.10. Assuming four contracts were purchased initially, the cost basis for the single contract that remains would be 90.38. That is what I will use in order to provide tracking guidance. For now, use an ‘impulsive’ stop drawn from the 3-minute chart. At the moment (10:42 p.m.), that would mean exiting on a downdraft that exceeds 91.70. If the stop is hit, I will track the other position (the one with the 86.13 stop) for informational purposes. Above 92.55 you can substitute bars from a 5-minute chart for the impulsive stop. (All tactics needed to enter and manage this trade are described in detail in a Hidden Pivot Course that originally cost $2500 but which is now available free to annual subscribers.)