$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:4.36%)

The two-month-long ascent of rates on the Ten-Year Note did an apparent death rattle last week with a run-up to 4.46%. That fell slightly shy of the 4.48% peak recorded at the end of March. I still think the peak will endure, at least for the foreseeable future. This outlook remains to be confirmed, however, by a downtrend that generates an impulse leg on the daily chart. At the moment, that would imply a decline touching 4.22%. I should note that someone who thinks rates will fall is considered bearish on rates. Because this can be confusing, we tend to say that the person is bullish on bonds, since bond prices rise as rates fall.

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