The two-month-long ascent of rates on the Ten-Year Note did an apparent death rattle last week with a run-up to 4.46%. That fell slightly shy of the 4.48% peak recorded at the end of March. I still think the peak will endure, at least for the foreseeable future. This outlook remains to be confirmed, however, by a downtrend that generates an impulse leg on the daily chart. At the moment, that would imply a decline touching 4.22%. I should note that someone who thinks rates will fall is considered bearish on rates. Because this can be confusing, we tend to say that the person is bullish on bonds, since bond prices rise as rates fall. _____ UPDATE (May 13, 6:20 p.m.): So much for my death-rattle theory.  TNX broke slightly above two previous peaks, but there is Hidden Pivot resistance an inch away, at 4.52%. Let’s see how bulls fare before we draw any conclusions. If the resistance gives way easily, that will imply more upside to the next at 4.61%. _____ UPDATE (May 15, 10:36 a.m.) Today’s breakout has all but clinched a finishing stroke to the 4.61% target flagged above. Let me therefore introduce a new one at 4.75%, my worst case for the near term. I’ll also remind you that this is one important economic variable over which Trump has no control, although his eagerness to put a dove in charge of the Fed could be seen as driving rates higher. And mortgages thrusting once again toward 7% will surely not help to Make America Great Again.