GDXJ

The 149.79 target shown corresponds to the 5476 target featured in the latest gold tout.  If it is decisively exceeded, however, especially on first contact, that would imply the bull trend is bound for 163.11. That target, a Hidden Pivot, is derived from a lower point A -- i.e., the 110.04 bottom recorded on the first trading day of the year.  The sharp pullback over Valentine's Day did not qualify as a 'mechanical' buy because some key elements were missing.  However, if GDXJ were to swoon to the green line (x=128.12) now, that would trigger a legitimate buy signal, stop 120.90. Stranger things have happened, so you should be prepared to act if the opportunity arises.

Subscribers who used the 128.13 bottoming target I posted in the chat room at 12:35 could have gotten an $8 ride from just above Friday's low.  The rally left GDXJ hovering within a bearish pattern that projects to as low as 110.79. There is no way to judge the likelihood of this, nor will there be until we've seen how sellers interact with the midpoint hidden Pivot support at 126.20. The trend could also go the other way, blowing out the 141.60 high that forms the pattern's point 'C'.  For now, though, GDXJ remains on a theoretical sell signal from x=133.90 that was showing a small loss when the week ended.

I'll spare you the boring details, but the pattern shown, wih a 202.52 target that lies 20% below, has everything I look for. It tripped a conventional sell signal when it touched the green line last Wednesday, and the choppy downtrend since should be presumed bound for a minimum 118.05 over the near term. If that midpoint Hidden Pivot support is easily exceeded to the downside, it would portend more slippage to as low as D=102.52. We'll let price action speak for itself, but take it as a bullish sign if buyers push above C=133.57 before p=118.05 is touched.

GDXJ's long-term chart differs enough from gold's to allow a more creative approach to targeting this correction. I've masked the A & B coordinates for proprietary reasons, but they indicate a possible further fall to 112.09 before this vehicle can turn around.  That Hidden Pivot can serve as a minimum downside projection because of the decisive way the downtrend penetrated p=132.17 on Friday.  Any bottom fishing there should use a 'camo' trigger derived from a chart of 60-minute degree or less.

The chart replicates the pattern I've used to project a 5300 target for Feb Gold. The corresponding target for GDXJ is 151.42, and although the pattern, like the one for gold futures, starts with an un-kosher point 'A' low, it should prove more than good enough for government work.  In fact, it provides an anchor that visually suggests that 151.42 will be a resistance point of consequence. It is the highest target I can project with unexceptionable coordinates. Using a longer-term chart here is not particularly useful for creating new point 'A' beginnings because it would simply recall whatever relatively undramatic lows occurred with GDXJ trading beneath $40. Some of the ups and downs back then may have felt like a big deal, but in the context of the big move up that has occurred since August, they were just grassy bumps on a rural airstrip. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 12:02 p.m.): Like much else in the bullion world, GDXJ has gone all lunatick-y, starting today's session with a wildly exuberant gap to the 151.42 target advertised above. It has spent the day so far diddling this Hidden Pivot, but the already 70-cent overshoot has practically guaranteed still-higher prices. I am able to project them only by using 'extension patterns' along the Big Picture's C-D leg, but what would be the point? Query me in the chat room if you get desperate for further guidance. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:45 p.m.): If buyers shred their way past a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 148.99, assume they are bound for 158.51 (60m, A= 133.08 on 1/21). A secondary 'hidden' resistance ay 153.75 could slow them down.

There is nothing to suggest this vehicle will not reach the target at 135.90, a once-unimaginable milestone that was first signaled in mid-November when GDXJ crossed up through the green line. The subsequent, confident move through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 111.63, significantly shortened the odds the target would be realized.  This now appears all but certain, and although it would be implicitly bullish for gold, we shouldn't be too concerned if the respective moves appear to be somewhat out of synch. The ABCD pattern is sufficiently clear to imply that the correction following the final run-up to the target could be long and painful. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 11:10 a.m.):  It is headed to 139,55 at least, or to 144.86 if any higher. Currently 134.68, just off the high.

GDXJ's ascent over the last month left quite a mess on the hourly chart, but it all fits so nicely within the 13-point channel shown that we can probably rely on it for predicting important turns both above and below.  An ambitious target at 135.90 has served as a bullish lodestone for quite a while, and even though I am growing increasingly skeptical that it will be reached any time soon, meaning with the sensationally steep slope of the last six months, I'm ready to set my skepticism aside if this vehicle vaults the trendline and holds above it for at least two days.

We've been using an ambitious rally target at 135.90 for a while, but the pattern shown looks so heavy that it's time to focus on corrective patterns on the lesser charts. This will give us a more finely nuanced 'read' on trend strength, and perhaps even telegraph an exuberant leap into the bearish gap that occurred when the markets opened on Monday after Christmas. The immediate target is a 'd' Hidden Pivot at 115.12, and it would need to be penetrated easily and decisively to suggest a very-bullish 'island-gap reversal' in the making, Alternatively, if the rally fails, brace for backsliding to around 108, where GDXJ consolidated in early December for its powerful run-up to the 122 peak recorded on December 26.

With its weak point 'A' low and its obviousness, the pattern shown should not be considered reliable for predicting a precise top. However, it can still serve us in several ways. For one, the easy move through p has shortened the odds of a rally to at least D=135.90. Also, a pullback to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy sufficiently enticing that we should not want to miss it.  And if p2=123.76 shows stopping power, that would validate the pattern itself and its target. ______ UPDATE (Dec 20): Bulls further distanced this vehicle from the red line last week, increasing the likelihood that the 135.90 target will be achieved.  A pullback to the green line (x=99.49) in the meantime, however unlikely, should be viewed as an opportunity to get long or to augment an existing position 'mechanically'.