There's little doubt that GDXJ will achieve a minimum 114.22 in this run-up (see inset). Although it struggled for a while to get past the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 100.80, the ballistic breakout that ended the week should prove well-nigh unstoppable. However, because a 'd' target at 111.59 maxes out the monthly chart (a=96.72 on 2/26/10), we'll have to do the best we can with lesser charts and patterns if and when the ascent surpasses 114.22.
I've displayed a bullish pattern because the fall from mid-October's 112.45 peak didn't quite reach the corrective pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot (p). The uptrend struggled for loft last week, however, and failed by 9 cents to trigger a conventional 'buy' signal at 95.79. The trigger will remain valid until such time as GDXJ slips beneath the 'C' low at 92.66. We'll adjust C downward if that occurs, but below 91.50, the short-term outlook would shift to bearish. Even so, a tightly stopped bid can be attempted there if you're a scalper, since it is the 'd' target of a small reverse pattern.
GDXJ looked impressive last week, showing resilience and pluck when quotes for physical were getting crushed. In fact, the ETF ended the week on a 'mechanical' buy signal at 94.08 that was more than $3 in the black. I didn't explicitly recommend the trade, but if you got aboard on your own initiative, the first by-the-book profit-taking opportunity would come at p=100.80. Regardless, a close above that Hidden Pivot would shorten the odds of the trend continuing to p2=107.51, or even to a new record at 114.22.
GDXJ entered its third week in purgatory, unable to attract the buying power to wreck the corrective pattern shown. That would take a push above the pattern's point 'C' high at 97.76. Sellers evidently were equally spent after failing to reach the secondary Hidden Pivot support, p2=86.38. My hunch is that bulls eventually will prevail, but there's not much to entice unless you're a scalper. The turgid price action reflects similar indecisiveness in bullion futures, which have lacked direction since completing a 350-point selloff on October 22.
Last week's nasty chop barely recovered ground lost as the week began, when GDXJ's canny handlers orchestrated a $17 shakedown on Monday's opening. This was bullish, like all shakedowns, because its purpose was to scare widows and pensioners into selling their shares for relative bargain prices. The subsequent bounce triggered a 'mechanical' short when it reached the green line (x=93.97), but the flat price action that followed looked unpromising as a place to bet the 'don't' line. Stay tuned for updates as GDXJ gives us a clearer picture. You can do this by enabling notifications in your account dashboard and by checking the chat room regularly.
GDXJ ended the week just shy of triggering a theoretical sell signal that could extend the so-far 18% drop from last week's record 112.45. If it slips beneath the green line to start the week, look for more weakness down to at least p=90.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support. The ETF will be ripe for bottom-fishing down there, presumably with a reverse-pattern trigger to reduce risk. A decisive breach of p, especially on first contact, would imply that more slippage to p2=86.38, at least, is likely. Worst case over the next 2-3 days would be 82.59, the pattern's D target.
Nasty relapses usually improve our odds of making a profit when we do a 'mechanical' buy, but in this instance the gap-down plunge was too strong for me to suggest putting a bid at the green line (or slightly below it, as was possible at the close on Friday). It is not the punitive behavior of the selling per se that has put me off, but rather the protracted A-B leg that amounts to just a weak impulse leg. We'll watch from the sidelines for now, but please note that the D target at 118.08 will remain viable until such time as C=98.44 is exceeded. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 1:16 a.m.): Even if the midpoint support at 92.38 shown here does not turn GDXJ toward new highs, it will still be worth bottom-fishing with an rABC trigger of minute degree. As always, a decisive penetration of the Hidden Pivot support on first contact would be bearish. That could also set up a 'mechanical' short eventually at the green line. Whatever happens, Mr Market -- known elsewhere in the Milky Way Galaxy as 'Sid' -- is unlikely to fool this pattern.
GDXJ's ballistic rally died midway between two middling targets at 104.25 and 106.84, respectively. A more important one lies at 111.59, and we are using it as a bull-market objective with the potential to stop buyers in their tracks. More immediately, you can play for a run-up to the 107.96 target shown in the inset. The pattern has yet to develop, since a 'buy' signal at the green line gave way to weakness on Friday that nearly stopped out the trade. We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for the moment nevertheless, implying p=103.21 can be used as a minimum upside objective when shares start to trade on Monday. If they fall on their face at the starting bell, slide 'C' down to the new low to create a fresh, usable pattern, even if it is beneath the current 'C' at 95.71 (10/2). _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 1:26 a.m. EDT): Like gold futures, GDXJ topped today close enough to a compelling Hidden Pivot target that it actually might be a decent short, assuming you've stuck with my 'insane' targets most of the way up and made some money . You can test this with a 1.70 trigger interval, but if the trade sevens out, raise your sights to a minimum of 118.08, since that's where this monster will be headed. You can also get long 'mechanically' with a 103.35 bid, stop 98.43. Good through Tuesday.
A 15% rally to the 111.59 target shown is likely. I've used a reverse pattern (rABC) taken from the monthly chart to project the extent of the move, which should unfold over the remaining months of 2025 and perhaps into early 2026. The point 'a low is an acceptable choice because this vehicle, a proxy for mining exploration companies, was introduced by Van Eck at the end of 2009. Notice that the first-time buyers encountered the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=64.23) along the c-d leg, they stalled almost precisely there before correcting for a little more than two years. The eventual penetration of p, although hardly explosive, was decisive enough to make a follow-through to 'd' a good bet. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Use this pattern to trade GDXJ in the days ahead. p=98.03 is a logical place to attempt bottom-fishing with very tight risk control, but any slippage beneath it would imply more weakness to p2=96.61, at least, or even D=95.20. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:25 p.m.): Buyers have pulled back slightly so far after stalling 13 cents above a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 103.92 (60-min, a=95.60 on 9/18). Once they clear this obstacle, there is still room on the hourly chart for further progress this week to 104.25, and thence 106.84. As always, an easy move through a Hidden Pivot target should be regarded as a sign the next is likely to be achieved.
GDXJ has shredded its way past all lesser targets, leaving just one more, major, Hidden Pivot resistance at 93.89 that comes from the weekly chart and beckons a test. Judging from the ease with which buyers penetrated the midpoint resistance at 78.90, the target is all but certain to be reached. It is nearly as likely to produce a precise reaction, meaning you should consider covered writes if you hold a long-term position. I advised doing so at a lesser target not far below, but there was relatively little resistance. This time it is likely to be different, but if GDXJ melts through the resistance anyway, I'll need to rummage through my bag of technical tricks to come up with a new target, since the one at 93.89 is the highest I can produce with conventional tools. In most cases, this entails extrapolating an 'extension' target from the intraday charts. This tactic will yield Hidden Pivots that should be expected to show shortable stopping power, but it is not a reliable means for predicting a major top. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 2:14 p.m.): Bulls vaporized the 93.89 target on first contact, ensuring that the nearly vertical rally will continue to at least 104.85. This Hidden Pivot target does NOT come from the lesser charts, which reveal nothing of interest at the moment, but from weekly bars. The pattern is unorthodox, but our rule is that the midpoint Hidden Pivot of all patterns, however odd, will unfailingly yield an accurate assessment of trend strength. Since p=84.38 got impaled the first time it was touched, that means the move must reach D, even if this 'hidden' resistance does not mark the ultimate top. Here's the chart.
